So, let's look at my projections/estimates from the other thread:
"Our ridership increased by 42 percent in the last quarter and revenue increased by 72 percent. We are on the right trajectory."
That would put ridership at about 106,200 [A] and revenue at $1,142,000 [B].
Actual ridership came in at 106,090 (I would call that a rounding error on my estimate). Actual revenue came in at $1.54m for Q2, so I was WAY off there...but I think that's a question of interpretation as well. PPR was up 63.5% (and if I stick with my exclusion of the Miami opening weekend, outside of THAT it was up somewhere in the ballpark of 78.5%), so I'm going to guess that the "revenue" figure referred to yield per passenger.
I suspect my ridership numbers in June are about right, but I'll need to revise my June revenue estimate. What I developed at the time was as follows:
Looking at the trend (and trying to control for Miami's opening weekend), my guess is that June's numbers are going to look something like this:
-Ridership: 40,000 (annual trend around 485,000)
-Revenue: $500,000 (annual trend around $6,100,000) to $540,000 (annual trend around $6,600,000)
-PPR: $12.50 (assuming a 40% bump per above) to $13.40 (assuming a 50% bump per above).
Absent a monthly breakout, my best guess is that ridership was at that level, perhaps a hair lower. Revenue was (necessarily) higher. Full-quarter PPR was $14.52, and adjusting for Miami's opening weekend (as before, excluding 9500 riders and in this case an estimated $100k in revenue) it was $15.84.
In light of this, I would estimate $15.00 as the low bar for June (really ignoring Miami's opening weekend and presuming only a modest skew towards the end for revenue) and put $20.00 as the high end (adjusting for Miami's opening weekend and basically presuming that April and the first part of May behaved like Q1). This would give a revenue range from $600,000 to $800,000 (annual trend between $7,200,000 and $9,600,000). These are still both quite far below the needed trend, but they're also a lot better than before. They're also slightly below what I estimated for last Saturday (my estimates there give a PPR of $20.02, but that's also on a day that had ticket sales running "hot" and forced me to estimate a significant amount of high-bucket sales). Put another way, I'm feeling quite comfortable with my estimations from last weekend.
Edit: I bumped the high end up a bit after checking some numbers. My estimate, for the record, is that $17.00-17.50 and $680,000-700,000 is probably a "most likely scenario" for June.
Edited by Anderson, 28 September 2018 - 06:16 PM.