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Brightline Ridership Number-Crunching and Analysis


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#21 Anderson

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 05:40 PM

So, let's look at my projections/estimates from the other thread:

 

"Our ridership increased by 42 percent in the last quarter and revenue increased by 72 percent. We are on the right trajectory."

That would put ridership at about 106,200 [A] and revenue at $1,142,000 [B].

Actual ridership came in at 106,090 (I would call that a rounding error on my estimate).  Actual revenue came in at $1.54m for Q2, so I was WAY off there...but I think that's a question of interpretation as well.  PPR was up 63.5% (and if I stick with my exclusion of the Miami opening weekend, outside of THAT it was up somewhere in the ballpark of 78.5%), so I'm going to guess that the "revenue" figure referred to yield per passenger.

I suspect my ridership numbers in June are about right, but I'll need to revise my June revenue estimate.  What I developed at the time was as follows:

 

Looking at the trend (and trying to control for Miami's opening weekend), my guess is that June's numbers are going to look something like this:
-Ridership: 40,000 (annual trend around 485,000)
-Revenue: $500,000 (annual trend around $6,100,000) to $540,000 (annual trend around $6,600,000)
-PPR: $12.50 (assuming a 40% bump per above) to $13.40 (assuming a 50% bump per above).

Absent a monthly breakout, my best guess is that ridership was at that level, perhaps a hair lower.  Revenue was (necessarily) higher.  Full-quarter PPR was $14.52, and adjusting for Miami's opening weekend (as before, excluding 9500 riders and in this case an estimated $100k in revenue) it was $15.84.

In light of this, I would estimate $15.00 as the low bar for June (really ignoring Miami's opening weekend and presuming only a modest skew towards the end for revenue) and put $20.00 as the high end (adjusting for Miami's opening weekend and basically presuming that April and the first part of May behaved like Q1).  This would give a revenue range from $600,000 to $800,000 (annual trend between $7,200,000 and $9,600,000).  These are still both quite far below the needed trend, but they're also a lot better than before.  They're also slightly below what I estimated for last Saturday (my estimates there give a PPR of $20.02, but that's also on a day that had ticket sales running "hot" and forced me to estimate a significant amount of high-bucket sales).  Put another way, I'm feeling quite comfortable with my estimations from last weekend.

Edit: I bumped the high end up a bit after checking some numbers.  My estimate, for the record, is that $17.00-17.50 and $680,000-700,000 is probably a "most likely scenario" for June.


Edited by Anderson, 28 September 2018 - 06:16 PM.

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Amtrak mileage to date: Somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 miles...I /really/ need to run all of my trips through a calculator sometime.

...and no, I am not /that/ Anderson...;-)


#22 Anderson

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 06:43 PM

One other thing to break out: Brightline estimated $23.9m in revenue for the year, which would translate into just under $6.0m/quarter.  Going to a chart, we get the following for Q1-Q3:

      Actual   Est.   %
Q1    $0.66m  $5.98m  11.05%
Q2    $1.45m  $5.98m  24.25%
Q3-L  $2.33m  $5.98m  38.96% (estimated)
Q3-M  $2.62m  $5.98m  43.81% (estimated)
Q3-H  $2.91m  $5.98m  48.72% (estimated)
Q3-VH $3.50m  $5.98m  60.28% (estimated)

Q3 is estimated on the basis of ridership of 40,000/month (low), 45,000/month (middle), 50,000/month (high), and 60,000/month (very high) at an average ticket price of $19.  NB at these prices, Brightline would need about 102,600 riders in September to be on budget for revenue.  With that being said, what (thin) evidence I am seeing shows ridership seeming to continue to rise through the month, so I wouldn't be surprised to see September end up on the higher end of my old projections.  I do NOT expect to see it come in near the 60,000 end.

Amtrak mileage to date: Somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 miles...I /really/ need to run all of my trips through a calculator sometime.

...and no, I am not /that/ Anderson...;-)


#23 Brian_tampa

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 07:56 PM

This is the Q2 report filed by Brightline yesterday today.

 

Check out this link for more information about Brightline

 

https://emma.msrb.or...5C7FA2E4&type=G

Attached Files

  • Attached File  Q2.pdf   2.2MB   3 downloads

Edited by Brian_tampa, 28 September 2018 - 08:08 PM.

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#24 Brian_tampa

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:01 PM

 

One other thing to break out: Brightline estimated $23.9m in revenue for the year, which would translate into just under $6.0m/quarter.  Going to a chart, we get the following for Q1-Q3:

      Actual   Est.   %
Q1    $0.66m  $5.98m  11.05%
Q2    $1.45m  $5.98m  24.25%
Q3-L  $2.33m  $5.98m  38.96% (estimated)
Q3-M  $2.62m  $5.98m  43.81% (estimated)
Q3-H  $2.91m  $5.98m  48.72% (estimated)
Q3-VH $3.50m  $5.98m  60.28% (estimated)
Q3 is estimated on the basis of ridership of 40,000/month (low), 45,000/month (middle), 50,000/month (high), and 60,000/month (very high) at an average ticket price of $19.  NB at these prices, Brightline would need about 102,600 riders in September to be on budget for revenue.  With that being said, what (thin) evidence I am seeing shows ridership seeming to continue to rise through the month, so I wouldn't be surprised to see September end up on the higher end of my old projections.  I do NOT expect to see it come in near the 60,000 end.

 

 

The Brightline estimate is based on full service starting in Q4 of 2017. So I would take any and all revenue and ridership estimates for 2018 with a grain of salt. See page 393 of this PAB document filed last year.

Attached Files


Edited by Brian_tampa, 28 September 2018 - 08:06 PM.


#25 AGM.12

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:12 PM

Is real estate income accounted any where or is that a separate item?



#26 Brian_tampa

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:14 PM

Is real estate income accounted any where or is that a separate item?

 

This is just for Brightline revenue from ridership (and maybe  stations?). Real estate is a separate LLC. The bonds were sold only for the passenger rail service, specifically the south segment between Miami and WPB. Any real estate revenue might be hard to come by as each building might have a different LLC for its development.


Edited by Brian_tampa, 28 September 2018 - 08:18 PM.


#27 Anderson

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:38 PM

Ah, hell...the paper mangled the numbers. I'll revise my analysis in an hour or two.

Amtrak mileage to date: Somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 miles...I /really/ need to run all of my trips through a calculator sometime.

...and no, I am not /that/ Anderson...;-)


#28 Anderson

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 05:56 PM

Ok, let's take another swing at this now that we have actual numbers in front of us:

Ridership has been indicated at 106,090 (versus the estimate of 106,200).  This is basically a rounding error.  Revenue was indicated at $1,143,000 (versus the estimate of $1,142,000).  This is, in fact, probably an /actual/ rounding error given that it's down to a single count of the base unit of measurement (that is, $1000).

PPR was $10.77 for Q2; my comments earlier of $12.50-13.40 for June hold at this rate, and as a result so do my original notes about revenue trends and so on.

"Other revenue" is interesting.  I forget when Brightline started charging for parking, but Brightline is bringing in $3.69/passenger under this column (which presumably includes F&B, both on-board and at-station, as well as parking).  Interesting, "cost of sales" did increase, but substantially slower than otherwise.

Am not sure what falls under "miscellaneous income"; best guess is that it includes some stuff like interest on cash balances and the like.

If we eject depreciation/amortization from the calculation (their inclusion is dubious IMO), the net loss goes from $28.34m to $21.82m, a substantial improvement on Q1's (similarly-adjusted) $24.17m. Still not positive but not nearly as bad.

I am wondering how much of those first three line items (salaries/benefits, professional fees, and G&A/other) are/were tied up in construction and what the picture will look like once that isn't nearly as big of a "thing", since for all I can tell "Brightline Trains LLC" covers both PBI-MIA, MCO-PBI, and any putative projects TPA-MCO and/or JAX-PBI.

 

Edit: Something else which gives me a mild headache: Total expenses given are $27.55m, but restricted cash decreased by $35m while PPI increased by $55m.  There was, materially, no change to long-term debt.  Members' equity also increased by about $5m in the midst of this.  I only took introductory accounting, but I am really getting a headache trying to sort through this and I'd like to brainstorm explanations with somebody if possible.
 


Edited by Anderson, 30 September 2018 - 01:09 AM.

Amtrak mileage to date: Somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 miles...I /really/ need to run all of my trips through a calculator sometime.

...and no, I am not /that/ Anderson...;-)


#29 Anderson

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 01:02 AM

Southbound 01 Oct 18
0530  1 F,   0 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0050
0600  3 F,   0 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0056
0700  2 F,   2 W,  47 Y  Last check: 0057
0800  5 F,   5 W,  37 Y  Last check: 0059
0900 13 F,   2 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0104
1000  5 F,   1 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0106
1100  2 F,   0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0107
1200  4 F,   4 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0109
1400  1 F,   0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0114
1500  3 F,   0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0117
1600  2 F,   0 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0126
1700  4 F,   0 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0130
1800  2 F,   3 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0133
1900  0 F,   0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0135
2000  0 F,   0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0136
2100  0 F,   0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0138
     47 F,  17 W, 175 Y

Northbound 01 Oct 18
0713  6 F,   3 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0143
0813  1 F,   3 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0144
0913  0 F,   0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0145
1013  0 F,   0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0146
1113  2 F,   0 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0147
1213  3 F,   0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0148
1313  2 F,   1 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0150
1413  4 F,   0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0150
1613  4 F,   7 W,  19 Y  Last check: 0152
1713  3 F,   2 W,  27 Y  Last check: 0153
1813  3 F,   1 W,  25 Y  Last check: 0155
1913  2 F,   2 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0156
2013  0 F,   1 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0157
2113  1 F,   2 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0158
2213  1 F,   0 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0159
2313  0 F,   0 W,   0 Y  Last check: 0200
     32 F,  22 W, 137 Y

Note: All trains showing $20/25/40
Also note that this is the first time I've load-checked a Monday.

Amtrak mileage to date: Somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 miles...I /really/ need to run all of my trips through a calculator sometime.

...and no, I am not /that/ Anderson...;-)





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