San Francisco Chronicle article: possible demise of Amtrak LD service

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BCL

Engineer
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San Francisco Bay Area
http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/If-Trump-has-his-way-Amtrak-s-long-run-trains-11264619.php

Of course some of the author's points of emphasis are a bit off to anyone who really follows Amtrak, but he's trying. He quotes a sleeper passenger who talks about baggage allowances being included as to why she prefers Amtrak to flying, but doesn't mention that coach passengers get that same allowance. He also makes a big deal about the conductor carrying a ticket punch, even though they barely use them any more.
 
I've heard a lot about the LD system going away entirely recently. But I remember starting this thread (http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/69767-doomsday-scenario-what-if-congress-stops-funding-amtrak/) and said even if Congress completely cut Amtrak off they can still cover " up to covering "94% of its operating costs with ticket sales and other revenues" (and that was if Amtrak stopped funding them completely). I'm not believing Amtrak can't run most of its LD trains based upon ticket sales and $525 million a year (https://www.narprail.org/news/releases/white-house-doubles-down-on-cuts-to-infrastructure-investment-slashes-amtrak-routes-and-transit-funding/).

As much as Trump can dismiss LD trains, unless Congress specifically tells Amtrak to shut them all down, they should still be able to afford most if not all of them for at least a while. NARP themselves in the article said the lack of funding will "likely result in a slow-motion collapse of the entire network." Even if this proposed budget for FY2018 is approved, I don't see the LD system going away for a while and maybe by then that 94% will become closer to 100% (Avelia Liberty could help) and/or we'll get a president who reinstates the $1 billion/year. Of course we should fight to keep the $1 billion/yr right now but the idea that the LSL and SM will disappear tomorrow seems nothing more than a scare tactic to me. Eventually cars will wreck/deteriorate and will have to be pulled out of service and without replacements Amtrak will have to cut trains and/or amenities like the current Viewliner diner shortage. But that's happened before and is happening now. The only think the budget cuts do is accelerate the end (and the new V-II's will hopefully extend the life of at least Viewliner route service before their cars' life ends). You can argue the LD routes have been in danger since 1971 (and quite a few already died). At this point, I don't see the gloom and doom that others (specifically NARP) do.
 
I've heard a lot about the LD system going away entirely recently. But I remember starting this thread (http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/69767-doomsday-scenario-what-if-congress-stops-funding-amtrak/) and said even if Congress completely cut Amtrak off they can still cover " up to covering "94% of its operating costs with ticket sales and other revenues" (and that was if Amtrak stopped funding them completely). I'm not believing Amtrak can't run most of its LD trains based upon ticket sales and $525 million a year (https://www.narprail.org/news/releases/white-house-doubles-down-on-cuts-to-infrastructure-investment-slashes-amtrak-routes-and-transit-funding/).

As much as Trump can dismiss LD trains, unless Congress specifically tells Amtrak to shut them all down, they should still be able to afford most if not all of them for at least a while. NARP themselves in the article said the lack of funding will "likely result in a slow-motion collapse of the entire network." Even if this proposed budget for FY2018 is approved, I don't see the LD system going away for a while and maybe by then that 94% will become closer to 100% (Avelia Liberty could help) and/or we'll get a president who reinstates the $1 billion/year. Of course we should fight to keep the $1 billion/yr right now but the idea that the LSL and SM will disappear tomorrow seems nothing more than a scare tactic to me. Eventually cars will wreck/deteriorate and will have to be pulled out of service and without replacements Amtrak will have to cut trains and/or amenities like the current Viewliner diner shortage. But that's happened before and is happening now. The only think the budget cuts do is accelerate the end (and the new V-II's will hopefully extend the life of at least Viewliner route service before their cars' life ends). You can argue the LD routes have been in danger since 1971 (and quite a few already died). At this point, I don't see the gloom and doom that others (specifically NARP) do.
If Trump's budget passes, I doubt that all of the LD routes would survive. However, I believe a few most likely would. I would be surprised if at least one each of Chicago to the NEC, Chicago to the West Coast, the CS, and a New York to Florida routes did not survive. The Cardinal, SL, and CONO would likely be the first to go. The Crescent could soon follow in order to climate the NOL terminal entirely. The TE, SS/SM, LSL/CL, SWC/CZ, and EB could also be at risk, although to a lesser extent.
 
Trump's budget won't pass. It's a joke budget and isn't taken seriously by Congress to start with. Moorman has already pointed out to Congress that cutting the long-distance trains will INCREASE the subsidy required from Congress (in other words, the LD trains are profitable).

Trump will probably have been thrown out of office within a year anyway.

The interesting thing is *just how much press* this has gotten. I haven't counted but I think it's more press than when George W Bush tried to "zero out Amtrak" (and failed).

There have probably been more people calling their Congressmen supporting Amtrak than in YEARS before. Let's keep it up. Panicked news articles are good if they get people calling their Congressmen.
 
Trump will probably have been thrown out of office within a year.
And what evidence do you have for this statement? I have yet to see anything that has happened that would constitute an impeachable offense.
 
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Trump will probably have been thrown out of office within a year.
And what evidence do you have for this statement? I have yet to see anything that has happened that would constitute an impeachable offense.
Isn't an impeachable offense whatever the House says it is?

Having asked that, I'll mention that I tend to think that removal from office is extremely unlikely, even if the House and Senate flip from R to D control after the 2018 election. At this point, I don't see the level of support among Ds to push for such an action, let alone among the Rs that would have to go along with it for it to happen. Of course things can change, but right now I just don't see it.

Anyway...back to Amtrak. While the specifics of the president's budget are going nowhere with Congress, it's important for supporters of intercity passenger rail (and transit) to routinely remind their representatives of that support.
 
Trump's budget won't pass. It's a joke budget and isn't taken seriously by Congress to start with. Moorman has already pointed out to Congress that cutting the long-distance trains will INCREASE the subsidy required from Congress (in other words, the LD trains are profitable).

Trump will probably have been thrown out of office within a year anyway.

The interesting thing is *just how much press* this has gotten. I haven't counted but I think it's more press than when George W Bush tried to "zero out Amtrak" (and failed).

There have probably been more people calling their Congressmen supporting Amtrak than in YEARS before. Let's keep it up. Panicked news articles are good if they get people calling their Congressmen.
I agree that it is highly unlikely the Trump budget will pass. However, that does not mean that the budget created by Congress will not decrease Amtrak's subsidy. Although it is unlikely that the LD trains will dissapear, it is certainly not an impossibility at this point.
 
Trump will probably have been thrown out of office within a year.
And what evidence do you have for this statement? I have yet to see anything that has happened that would constitute an impeachable offense.
Not to get too much into politics (where a clearly partisan shot resulted in several posts and their responses getting scrubbed) but "high crimes and misdemeanors" was a term of art that was clearly understood to mean some sort of political misconduct. It doesn't require some sort of criminal act. And as stated, it really means whatever Congress thinks it means, because in the end the impeachment process is really a political process.
 
Trump will probably have been thrown out of office within a year.
And what evidence do you have for this statement? I have yet to see anything that has happened that would constitute an impeachable offense.
His erratic and inconsistent behavior, and unwillingness to read anything which doesn't have his name in it (seriously... aides are now putting his name in every paragraph to try to get him to read papers they hand him) is starting to freak out everyone in Congress, and has already freaked out many of his own cabinet members. A 25th Amendment Section 4 removal becomes more likely by the day.

If that doesn't happen, the firing of Comey for investigating the Russian hacking cases -- and Trump *openly said* that he fired Comey because of that -- is too close to Watergate for most people's comfort at this time.

If it's not one of those, it may be one of the dozens of conflict-of-interest scandals engulfing him. Or his cabinet members.

Everyone in DC seems to have figured out they can't rely on him to be consistent from one minute to the next, and he can't keep his mouth shut. It's a complete nightmare *regardless* of your political views. Just for peace and quiet, they would rather have Pence.

Or, as Trump's ghostwriter said, he may simply resign and declare victory. He seems to hate the job. I've really never seen anything quite like it.
 
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I agree that it is highly unlikely the Trump budget will pass. However, that does not mean that the budget created by Congress will not decrease Amtrak's subsidy. Although it is unlikely that the LD trains will dissapear, it is certainly not an impossibility at this point.
This is true. This is why I would like people to keep calling and writing their Congresspeople. If the DOA Trump budget inspires people to do this, it makes it more likely that Congress will keep Amtrak's funding stable.

Given the way the financials actually work, I am quite sure the LD trains will not all disappear; about 2/3 of them are actually profitable. As Wick Moorman said to Congress, if they cut all the LD trains, Congress would actually have to *increase* the subsidy to Amtrak. They are made to appear unprofitable by the silly and meaningless scheme of "allocating" part of Amtrak's fixed overhead (which is very large) to them.

The only way to get rid of the fixed overhead is to shut Amtrak down completely. Unlike under George W. Bush, that has *not* been proposed (which I consider to be great progress -- even the Heritage Foundation has given up on shutting down the NEC and the state corridors, which they tried to do for decades). Given that the overhead will be paid for one way or another, Amtrak is going to keep running every train which is profitable-before-overhead.

That shouldn't stop you from writing your Congressmen to demand that the Silver Meteor and Lake Shore Limited be preserved. Just because they are pretty unlikely to be cancelled... it still helps a lot to let Congress know that you care! If Congress is specifically supportive of them they might actually get *improved* instead of just limping along like they do now.

If the train you care about is the Sunset Limited, well, it really is at risk, as it does take in less revenue than its avoidable costs, and has the largest deficit of any federally-funded train in the system. And it probably still would if it were daily.

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FWIW, Amtrak doesn't release these numbers for some reason, but at the moment I estimate that the following LD trains are definitely profitable before overhead:

Silver Star, Silver Meteor, Palmetto, Auto Train, Crescent, Lake Shore Limited

The following are pretty close (closer than the margin of error in my calculations):

Empire Builder, Coast Starlight, City of New Orleans

The Capitol Limited probably generates more connecting revenue than its net loss before overhead.

There are really only 5 LD trains which can fairly be called "money losing trains": in order from least expensive to most expensive:

The Cardinal (which would be profitable if daily)

The Texas Eagle

The Southwest Chief

The California Zephyr

The Sunset Limited.

You saw what happened when there were threats to merely reroute the Southwest Chief *to a more profitable route*. The California Zephyr has even stronger backing, given the major cities on the route and their pro-train leanings.
 
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I just keep trying to get people especially those riding who are enjoying their first trip to send letters request more support from Amtrak from their Senators and Congressmen, and Governor.
 
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