May 2017 Monthly Performance Report

The May 2017 performance report has been released: https://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/467/804/Amtrak-Monthly-Performance-Report-May-2017.pdf

System-wide ridership was up about 1.7% year over year, with real solid gains on the NEC (somewhat offset by a pretty big loss by the Palmetto) and Keystone, and also the Michigan lines. California corridors were okay to positive (San Joaquins lost a tiny bit, but the others went up), Heartland Flyer and Vermonter did real well.

Auto Train had a decent month, Coast Starlight was doomed from the start of the month due to the bridge closure. Not sure what happened to the Piedmont and Carolinian, but they were both off pretty significantly. Double-digit losses for the Hoosier State, Missouri River Runner, and Cascades. Lake Shore Limited had a down month in Coach/Business, but sleeper riders were up.

The way things have been going lately with OTP, it was only a matter of time before one of the host freight railroads completely broke out of its OTP chart again, and congratulations to Norfolk Southern for doing it in May. And thanks in no small part to NS, OTP system-wide was a dismal 70%. Ouch. MetroNorth is not helping much either with significant delays happening on their tracks as well because of commuter train interference.

The Expenses per Seat Mile (CASM) Metric is sticking out to me as being VERY good for the last few months. In May, it was 3 cents per seat mile below budget, which when spread across over 1 BILLION seat miles nationwide, accounts for about $30 million in savings in the month of May alone. Year to date CASM is flat compared to last year, so this might be worth looking at in the next several months to see if it continues.

Crescent a dismal 6.5% OTP with no trains on time NOL. == 10 trains OTP at NYP where Crescent can make up time from ATL - NYP sometimes 2 hours.

Again, it is proven that freight railroads are bad hosts and will break their contracts. Amtrak needs its own tracks.

Does anyone know what the issue with NS is (this time, at least...the incident a few years ago where the computer system didn't work well wasn't so much a contract breach as it was a generalized failure)? Looking at the data included, there's so much all over the place with slow orders...and heck, the Acela isn't even keeping to the PRIIA 207 standard.

(Also, it's strange to see CP as one of the best performers on the chart...)

Freight train interference. No credible reports of a system meltdown.

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Almost all the long-distance trains are running with more revenue than last year except Auto Train (which definitely needs to reverse its declining reputation issues), and Coast Starlight (I think there was a disruption?)

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Doing my usual caluation to attempt to back out overhead...

It still looks like the Star, Meteor, Palmetto, Auto Train, LSL, and Crescent are money-generators, before overhead (the Crescent being newly profitable for 2016). My estimates still suffer mostly from not having a usable overhead number since 2014; since overhead has probably gone up I am probably underestimating the profitability of all trains.

The Empire Builder and Coast Starlight are within striking distance of being profitable before overhead, and will probably be money generators next year. They may already be money-generators, if overhead is higher than it was in 2014. The CONO may also be a money-generator but seems unable to get much revenue growth, so if it isn't now, it won't be next year.

The Cardinal is also very close and almost certainly would be a money generator if daily. All the single-level long-distance trains are profitable except the Cardinal; the Viewliner sleepers really can't come soon enough, as they will improve this profit further.

As a whole, despite worse performance than last year, the long-distance network still appears to be profitable. So when Moorman said that shutting down all the long-distance trains would require additional subsidy from Congress, he was literally correct. That said, they aren't all profitable yet. The Sunset Limited is still the most costly and it looks like it would be so even if it were daily.

Anderson said:

Does anyone know what the issue with NS is (this time, at least...the incident a few years ago where the computer system didn't work well wasn't so much a contract breach as it was a generalized failure)? Looking at the data included, there's so much all over the place with slow orders...and heck, the Acela isn't even keeping to the PRIIA 207 standard.

(Also, it's strange to see CP as one of the best performers on the chart...)

Click to expand...

It is spring.That means track work. Plus, they appear to have troubles around ATL even though it is reported that CSX is blocking the route around ATL station.

Anderson the NS problems south of ATL station are two.

1. The CSX yard lead to Tilford yard is only 1/2 mile from the NS crossing. Often HH's freights block the Control Point with 2 MPH trains pushing in. CSX was there first ( The Western and Atlantic of civil war fame ). The delays there are charged to NS by Amtrak so NS gets all the delays there. NS does code it internally to other RR freight train delay. Delays can be anywhere from 30 minutes to 120 minutes even though unimpeded trains can make it 25 minutes under schedule.

2. For whatever reason the other delay area is Meridian <> Birmingham often 1 - 1-1/2 hours

However for the past few days not many delays around ATL.

NS is also generating delays on the LSL, though. Really can't blame anyone else for that.