What would happen if the NEC shut down?

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norfolkwesternhenry

Lead Service Attendant
Joined
Jun 6, 2016
Messages
474
Location
Minneapolis, MN
As Amtrak constantly faces attacks and budget cuts, I think drastic action must be taken. If the NEC shut down unexpectedly, the US economy would lose $100,000,000 per day. Here are my pros and cons for Amtrak and shutting down the corridor.

Pros: 1. The impact on the economy would force everyone to reconsider how important Amtrak is

2. 24 hours of no train traffic could mean many needed repairs could be made, and with no interruptions from passing trains.

3. 24 hours of no NEC service would be a major help to free up cars for maintenance that would otherwise be stuck on the corridor.

Cons: 1. A major loss of revenue would occur, but only for a few days/

2. LD trains would be cut back, and while the Cardinal and Silver Service can be held at WAS, the LSL wouldn't be able to access NYP, so it would be held back to the Croton-Harmon stop, or more likely, ALB or have the entire train travel to BOS.

3. Amtrak would definitely get some bad PR.

What are your thoughts?
 
Twenty-four hours wouldn't allow much time for any significant track work or car repair. Such a day might dramatically point out the importance of the NEC, but in the end such a stunt wouldn't accomplish anything.
 
1) Source for the $100M/day or it's just covfefe

2) If you didn't have one already, you now have a file somewhere at multiple three lettered agencies
 
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You forgot that "Sandy" shutdown NYPS for over a week. Anyone remember exact number ? That is why all the Crossties are now being replaced. The derailment at Frankford did cancel all trains PHL - NYP for what 5 days ?.
 
During the year when Gunn started shut down procedures at Amtrak, the railroads using any track or stations owned by Amtrak were notified they would no longer be allowed to do so. As drastic as this stunt was, it did awaken many in Washington to the fact that all rail travel in the Northeast would stop using anything owned by Amtrak, thus paralyzing the area. Prior to this most in Congress though they could just let Amtrak die with no consequences.
 
1) Source for the $100M/day or it's just covfefe
I'm extremely skeptical of such an exact, even number. For comparison, the 2010 Iceland volcano that messed up European air traffic hit for about a billion dollars a day on the global economy, but that also entailed a 30 percent reduction in total flights on the planet. You were looking at impacting, in a week, as many people as the NEC handles in a year. It just doesn't seem reasonable to me that such a small number of people would have such a huge economic impact, when a vastly larger group combined with all the freight that was grounded too cost "only" a billion a day.
 
1) Source for the $100M/day or it's just covfefe
I'm extremely skeptical of such an exact, even number. For comparison, the 2010 Iceland volcano that messed up European air traffic hit for about a billion dollars a day on the global economy, but that also entailed a 30 percent reduction in total flights on the planet. You were looking at impacting, in a week, as many people as the NEC handles in a year. It just doesn't seem reasonable to me that such a small number of people would have such a huge economic impact, when a vastly larger group combined with all the freight that was grounded too cost "only" a billion a day.
It depends on if we're looking at said shutdown also completely wrecking commuting to/from WAS, PHL, and NYP. Yes, some of your Long Island commuters would simply switch to the subway at one of the LIRR's other terminals and some NJT folks would make their way to PATH, but you're looking at probably looking at directly fouling up the commutes of at least a quarter-million people per day (and possibly more like 400k...after all, on a full NEC shutdown you'd drop the entire Hudson Line from Metro-North as well as all of the LIRR/NJT folks going into NYP). Some of those commutes would still happen (by bus or car) but others wouldn't.

If you put the value of each cancelled commute to the economy at $200 (between lost wages, spending to make that commute happen, etc.), that's easily $50m on 250k disruptions...and let's not forget that if you have a bunch of those commutes not happening, at some point businesses in Manhattan would start edging back on staffing, etc. Not all of the costs are direct, after all.
 
...after all, on a full NEC shutdown you'd drop the entire Hudson Line from Metro-North as well as all of the LIRR/NJT folks going into NYP). Some of those commutes would still happen (by bus or car) but others wouldn't.
Can you explain how a hypothetical NEC corridor shutdown would affect the Hudson Line and why? That is a surprise to me.

Thanks,

Ainamkartma
 
I'm sure he meant New Haven. I'm pretty sure Hudson is all MN track. However, I also suspect that all of MNs route into the City is MN track, too.
 
The question is whether the New Haven Line gets included in the shutdown because it is notionally part of the NEC or it is not included because it is MNRR/ConnDOT Line.

LIRR would have to terminate and turn trains at Jamaica and Atlantic Terminal with perhaps some enhancement to Subway service from those two areas.

BTW, NEC carries a smaller number of commuters into New York than Buses and PATH by far. An NEC shutdown is a huge inconvenience but not something that cannot be survived. It was done immediately following Sandy for a while. If all tunnels of the Lincoln Tunnel system are dedicated to bus use with pickup/dropoff distributed all around Manhattan plus ferries are deployed to the fullest, a shutdown of NEC from NJ can be survived.
 
Penn Station and 'A' Tower are part of the NEC, which Amtrak trains from the Empire connection from the Hudson Line need to access Penn Station...so if the NEC were "shut down" Empire line trains would have to divert to Grand Central Terminal...I kind of doubt MN allowing that to happen on a regular basis...
 
Penn Station and 'A' Tower are part of the NEC, which Amtrak trains from the Empire connection from the Hudson Line need to access Penn Station...so if the NEC were "shut down" Empire line trains would have to divert to Grand Central Terminal...I kind of doubt MN allowing that to happen on a regular basis...
Why, if the price is right? GCT and its approach trackage are running at a small fraction of their historic capacity... The situation is nothing at all like NYP.

Ainamkartma
 
If you put the value of each cancelled commute to the economy at $200 (between lost wages, spending to make that commute happen, etc.), that's easily $50m on 250k disruptions...
That's a somewhat ridiculous number. I recently switched from taking the train to driving, and it costs me about a tank of gas $40 a week. Nowhere near the $200 you're claiming.
 
I would hate to see all Empire Service trains go to GCT. Prior to 1994, all did as there was no other way.then you had to transfer between GCT and NYP to catch another train.

Not fun with luggage!
Well, if NEC is shut down and there are not trains running through NYP, then there would be nothing to transfer to at NYP, now. Would there? So that would be a non-issue.
 
If you put the value of each cancelled commute to the economy at $200 (between lost wages, spending to make that commute happen, etc.), that's easily $50m on 250k disruptions...
That's a somewhat ridiculous number. I recently switched from taking the train to driving, and it costs me about a tank of gas $40 a week. Nowhere near the $200 you're claiming.
Doesn't seem so ridiculous to me. Just as a spot check, in the fourth quarter of 2016, the average weekly salary in Union County, NJ, was $1,400. In New York County, NY, it was $2,200. So on average, you could make an additional $800 per week by commuting from Union, NJ, to NY, NY, or $160 per day. That doesn't seem like a terrible proxy for "value of each canceled commute". If you assume there is some bias for workers in the fields with the highest income gap to be the commuters, of course this calculation underestimates the value of each commute.

There's a solid incentive for people to spend good money and time getting into Manhattan every day.

Ainamkartma
 
Only some proportion of commutes will get canned, not all. People will not just sit around and do nothing to create alternative ways of getting there while NEC is out. So just taking the NJT ridership and multiplying with $50 or $200 does not necessarily give you a reasonable estimate of what will happen. Specially if it is for the long haul significant alternative arrangements will be made. If it is a day or two most likely work from home and just vacation days will get used a lot.
 
If you put the value of each cancelled commute to the economy at $200 (between lost wages, spending to make that commute happen, etc.), that's easily $50m on 250k disruptions...
That's a somewhat ridiculous number. I recently switched from taking the train to driving, and it costs me about a tank of gas $40 a week. Nowhere near the $200 you're claiming.
Doesn't seem so ridiculous to me. Just as a spot check, in the fourth quarter of 2016, the average weekly salary in Union County, NJ, was $1,400. In New York County, NY, it was $2,200. So on average, you could make an additional $800 per week by commuting from Union, NJ, to NY, NY, or $160 per day. That doesn't seem like a terrible proxy for "value of each canceled commute". If you assume there is some bias for workers in the fields with the highest income gap to be the commuters, of course this calculation underestimates the value of each commute.

There's a solid incentive for people to spend good money and time getting into Manhattan every day.

Ainamkartma
This. The cost of the commute is not the only "cost". There's a cost in terms of someone not going into work for a day (and knock-on effects through the economy)...not to mention the associated lost productivity (e.g. one presumes that the person making $2200/week in Manhattan is producing at least that much value for their company). For example, if a restaurant in Manhattan has a half-dozen people scheduled for a shift one night who suddenly can't make the commute into town, that could cut table capacity (and depending on the cost of the commute, etc., some of those people might be flat-out unable to make it) and with it revenue/profits for the owner. If a lawyer can't make it into NYC for a day, that could easily be $3-4k in billables out the window...and even in these cases, if they can make it, they might drop an hour or two of time due to having to arrange a non-standard commute.

Edit: And as jis said, if it's for a day or two (or "a day at a time") you'll get some vacation days and the like burned, with the first few days being the biggest mess. If it's for a few months, I'd expect that you'd see companies looking at renting office space in Stamford, Hoboken, etc. to accommodate it. And of course, we're looking at this strictly on the commute side. On the tourist/leisure side of things there's room to lose a lot of trips within the Corridor as well.
 
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Could you inform me where New York County, NY is? :huh: I know it can't be where New York City is, since it is in a different county.
New York City is divided into 5 boroughs, which are also 5 counties. Manhattan composes New York County, Brooklyn composed Kings County, Queens composes Queens county, Bronx composes Bronx county, and Staten Island composes Richmond county.
 
Could you inform me where New York County, NY is? :huh: I know it can't be where New York City is, since it is in a different county.
New York County is approximately Manhattan Island. The approximately is because of river and harbor islands and some oddball geography near Spuyten Duyvil.

Ainamkartma
 
Only some proportion of commutes will get canned, not all. People will not just sit around and do nothing to create alternative ways of getting there while NEC is out. So just taking the NJT ridership and multiplying with $50 or $200 does not necessarily give you a reasonable estimate of what will happen. Specially if it is for the long haul significant alternative arrangements will be made. If it is a day or two most likely work from home and just vacation days will get used a lot.
This.

When the train doesn't run, people don't just stop working. Most find another way to get there.

That also ignores the fact that the spending to use those alternative routes is still putting money into the economy. Economically, the effects are far less dire than you make them out to be.
 
People would attempt driving, think if the number of cars doubled on the NE highways and in the cities? The commuter rail services on Amtrak owned rail would be canceled or truncated. Are there enough extra buses to carry the commuters beyond the truncated end points and for trains canceled? The financial burden on the states would have their governors, Senators, and Representatives screaming for emergency funds to pay for everything. After Congress approves the emergency funds, how much is actually saved by eliminating Amtrak? Or will be a loss of money?
 
People would attempt driving, think if the number of cars doubled on the NE highways and in the cities? The commuter rail services on Amtrak owned rail would be canceled or truncated.
That is not what happened after Sandy. Some drove, those who could find enough gas. There was a lot of substitute bus service put in place. And those that had electricity, many of them temporarily worked from home. Of course half of lower Manhattan was shut down too, including any subway access, for several days. What will happen will depend on exactly what parts of the system failed
 
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