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What would happen if the NEC shut down?


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#21 brianpmcdonnell17

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Posted 07 June 2017 - 03:01 PM

Could you inform me where New York County, NY is?:huh: I know it can't be where New York City is, since it is in a different county.


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#22 ainamkartma

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Posted 07 June 2017 - 03:03 PM

Could you inform me where New York County, NY is? :huh: I know it can't be where New York City is, since it is in a different county.

 

New York County is approximately Manhattan Island.  The approximately is because of river and harbor islands and some oddball geography near Spuyten Duyvil.

 

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#23 Ryan

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Posted 07 June 2017 - 04:16 PM

Only some proportion of commutes will get canned, not all. People will  not just sit around and do nothing to create alternative ways of getting there while NEC is out. So just taking the NJT ridership and multiplying with $50 or $200 does not necessarily give you a reasonable estimate of what will happen. Specially if it is for the long haul significant alternative arrangements will be made. If it is a day or two most likely work from home and just vacation days will get used a lot.


This.

When the train doesn't run, people don't just stop working. Most find another way to get there.

That also ignores the fact that the spending to use those alternative routes is still putting money into the economy. Economically, the effects are far less dire than you make them out to be.
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#24 Lonestar648

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Posted 07 June 2017 - 04:34 PM

People would attempt driving, think if the number of cars doubled on the NE highways and in the cities? The commuter rail services on Amtrak owned rail would be canceled or truncated. Are there enough extra buses to carry the commuters beyond the truncated end points and for trains canceled? The financial burden on the states would have their governors, Senators, and Representatives screaming for emergency funds to pay for everything. After Congress approves the emergency funds, how much is actually saved by eliminating Amtrak? Or will be a loss of money?

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#25 jis

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Posted 07 June 2017 - 08:51 PM

People would attempt driving, think if the number of cars doubled on the NE highways and in the cities? The commuter rail services on Amtrak owned rail would be canceled or truncated.

That is not what happened after Sandy. Some drove, those who could find enough gas. There was a lot of substitute bus service put in place. And those that had electricity, many of them temporarily worked from home. Of course half of lower Manhattan was shut down too, including any subway access, for several days. What will happen will depend on exactly what parts of the system failed

#26 norfolkwesternhenry

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Posted 07 June 2017 - 10:55 PM

norfolkwesternhenry is back!! Welcome :giggle: 

Yes. I'm back. I was busy

Empire Builder MSP-CHI (2) CHI-MSP (2) MSP-PDX (1) MSP-CBS (5.5 H late) (1) MKE-MSP (1) MSP-SEA (1) Coast Starlate PDX-EMY (1.5H late) (1) California Zephyr DEN-SLC (1H late) (1) Hiawatha CHI-MKE (1) NE Regional WAS-BAL (1) WAS-NYP (1) Acela Express BAL-WAS (1) BOS-WAS (1) Late Shore (Limited service) CHI-BOS (On Time) (1) Capitol Limited WAS-CHI (1) Texas Eagle SAS-CHI (1.5 HR late, 1 HR late) (2) CHI-SAS (1) (55 min early) Wolverine DET-DER-ARB-CHI (35 Min late) (1) Cascades SEA-VAC (1)
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train cars travelled in: Superliner: Coach, Sleeper, Diner, CCC, SSL. Amfleet: LD Café, Café/Business, coach. Viewliner: Sleeper, Diner. Acela: Café, Business, quiet car. Horizon: Coach. Talgo: coach, diner, café; non Amtrak: ex CP Via Canadian Manor cars, Park car, diner,sleeper, Skyline lounge. LRC trainset: coach (tilt de-activated)

No trees were killed to make this, but a number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

My apologies if I offend you, or seem stubborn, it's simply my nature. I am 14 after all, and my English isn't exactly perfect.


#27 Thirdrail7

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Posted 08 June 2017 - 01:14 AM

I can imagine that number being somewhat reasonable if you count lost productivity for time spent in traffic. Goods will be delayed as people turn to the roads and planes. 

 

Even delays have an impact on certain groups. While bars and restaurants may thrive during delays, most other stores take a bath. Please allow a brief "fair use" quote from Penn Station delays leave shops struggling

 

 

 


 

Commuters are not the only ones feeling stranded at Penn Station — several businesses inside the transit hub said their bottom lines are suffering because customers skip shopping stops when their trains are delayed.

 

Penn Wine & Spirits sees a roughly 40 percent dip in business when commuters contend with train delays, as Long Island Rail Road passengers did Tuesday, according to the store’s sales consultant José Vilchis.

 

He said interruptions to rail service are significant enough to cut into the shop’s clientele about once or twice a week.

“People just stand out there for hours and hours,” Vilchis said. “A lot of people are more worried about where they want to head to instead of buying a bottle of wine.”

 

Nearby, Carlton Cards loses 20 to 30 percent of its business when trains run behind schedule, according to its manager, Vijay Sampat.

The sales slump grows most severe when the waiting area near the LIRR grows crowded and officials have to seal off the area, Sampat said.

“Nobody could come in,” he said. “We were dead here: no customers at all.”

 

 

 

That is just delays. Imagine the trickle down effect if the corridor shut down completely. That's a huge loss of purchasing power from the impacted workers from Amtrak, NJT, MARC, VRE, SEPTA, Metro-North, CDOT, MBTA, NS, Conrail, CSX and the suppliers of equipment/parts to those railroads. As examples, what happens to the people that make the railroad ties and signals? The parts for the catenary? How would a loss of the NEC impact the various electrical suppliers that feed the NEC? How many jobs are created because of them?

 

 

This is more than the commuters. This is everything from the dispatchers, to the IT personnel that support their systems, to people that mop the floors in the now closed stations, to the FRA inspectors that patrol Amtrak facilities.


Edited by Thirdrail7, 08 June 2017 - 01:17 AM.

They say laughter is the best medicine. Obviously they never posted on AU.


#28 norfolkwesternhenry

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 03:22 PM

I can imagine that number being somewhat reasonable if you count lost productivity for time spent in traffic. Goods will be delayed as people turn to the roads and planes. 
 
Even delays have an impact on certain groups. While bars and restaurants may thrive during delays, most other stores take a bath. Please allow a brief "fair use" quote from Penn Station delays leave shops struggling
 
 
 


 
Commuters are not the only ones feeling stranded at Penn Station — several businesses inside the transit hub said their bottom lines are suffering because customers skip shopping stops when their trains are delayed.
 
Penn Wine & Spirits sees a roughly 40 percent dip in business when commuters contend with train delays, as Long Island Rail Road passengers did Tuesday, according to the store’s sales consultant José Vilchis.
 
He said interruptions to rail service are significant enough to cut into the shop’s clientele about once or twice a week.
“People just stand out there for hours and hours,” Vilchis said. “A lot of people are more worried about where they want to head to instead of buying a bottle of wine.”
 
Nearby, Carlton Cards loses 20 to 30 percent of its business when trains run behind schedule, according to its manager, Vijay Sampat.
The sales slump grows most severe when the waiting area near the LIRR grows crowded and officials have to seal off the area, Sampat said.
“Nobody could come in,” he said. “We were dead here: no customers at all.”

 
 
 
That is just delays. Imagine the trickle down effect if the corridor shut down completely. That's a huge loss of purchasing power from the impacted workers from Amtrak, NJT, MARC, VRE, SEPTA, Metro-North, CDOT, MBTA, NS, Conrail, CSX and the suppliers of equipment/parts to those railroads. As examples, what happens to the people that make the railroad ties and signals? The parts for the catenary? How would a loss of the NEC impact the various electrical suppliers that feed the NEC? How many jobs are created because of them?
 
 
This is more than the commuters. This is everything from the dispatchers, to the IT personnel that support their systems, to people that mop the floors in the now closed stations, to the FRA inspectors that patrol Amtrak facilities.
I would think that if Amtrak shut down the NEC they would try to get as much work done while boycotting. I think with enough money and men, every bit of track on the whole NEC could be replaced in 24 hours. I think that Amtrak could perform some serious work, especially with high traffic areas that often can't be maintained because there is a train going through every three minutes.

Empire Builder MSP-CHI (2) CHI-MSP (2) MSP-PDX (1) MSP-CBS (5.5 H late) (1) MKE-MSP (1) MSP-SEA (1) Coast Starlate PDX-EMY (1.5H late) (1) California Zephyr DEN-SLC (1H late) (1) Hiawatha CHI-MKE (1) NE Regional WAS-BAL (1) WAS-NYP (1) Acela Express BAL-WAS (1) BOS-WAS (1) Late Shore (Limited service) CHI-BOS (On Time) (1) Capitol Limited WAS-CHI (1) Texas Eagle SAS-CHI (1.5 HR late, 1 HR late) (2) CHI-SAS (1) (55 min early) Wolverine DET-DER-ARB-CHI (35 Min late) (1) Cascades SEA-VAC (1)
Non-Amtrak: VIA: Corridor Service Q.C.-Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto-Windsor (1) Canadian: VAC-Winnipeg 4.5 H late (1) D. C. metro, Montreal Metro, Toronto subway, Portland streetcars, BART, Metra, NYC subway, Boston subway, Twin cities Blue/Green line
train cars travelled in: Superliner: Coach, Sleeper, Diner, CCC, SSL. Amfleet: LD Café, Café/Business, coach. Viewliner: Sleeper, Diner. Acela: Café, Business, quiet car. Horizon: Coach. Talgo: coach, diner, café; non Amtrak: ex CP Via Canadian Manor cars, Park car, diner,sleeper, Skyline lounge. LRC trainset: coach (tilt de-activated)

No trees were killed to make this, but a number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

My apologies if I offend you, or seem stubborn, it's simply my nature. I am 14 after all, and my English isn't exactly perfect.


#29 Lonestar648

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:56 PM

I do not think there is enough equipment, trained man power, and overhead cable for the electrical to totally redo the NEC in a year.

The thought is what happens if Amtrak totally closed down, not for Day, week, but forever. How NJT and others would not be able to use anything belonging to Amtrak like track or stations.

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#30 norfolkwesternhenry

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:58 PM

thats why I said enough money and men, Amtrak don't have tons of money and men. Now if NS and CSX pooled their recources, then Amtrak might have a chance of getting some work done. Unfortunately, Amtrak probably can't get NS and CSX to do all that work for less than a few billion dollars

Empire Builder MSP-CHI (2) CHI-MSP (2) MSP-PDX (1) MSP-CBS (5.5 H late) (1) MKE-MSP (1) MSP-SEA (1) Coast Starlate PDX-EMY (1.5H late) (1) California Zephyr DEN-SLC (1H late) (1) Hiawatha CHI-MKE (1) NE Regional WAS-BAL (1) WAS-NYP (1) Acela Express BAL-WAS (1) BOS-WAS (1) Late Shore (Limited service) CHI-BOS (On Time) (1) Capitol Limited WAS-CHI (1) Texas Eagle SAS-CHI (1.5 HR late, 1 HR late) (2) CHI-SAS (1) (55 min early) Wolverine DET-DER-ARB-CHI (35 Min late) (1) Cascades SEA-VAC (1)
Non-Amtrak: VIA: Corridor Service Q.C.-Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto-Windsor (1) Canadian: VAC-Winnipeg 4.5 H late (1) D. C. metro, Montreal Metro, Toronto subway, Portland streetcars, BART, Metra, NYC subway, Boston subway, Twin cities Blue/Green line
train cars travelled in: Superliner: Coach, Sleeper, Diner, CCC, SSL. Amfleet: LD Café, Café/Business, coach. Viewliner: Sleeper, Diner. Acela: Café, Business, quiet car. Horizon: Coach. Talgo: coach, diner, café; non Amtrak: ex CP Via Canadian Manor cars, Park car, diner,sleeper, Skyline lounge. LRC trainset: coach (tilt de-activated)

No trees were killed to make this, but a number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

My apologies if I offend you, or seem stubborn, it's simply my nature. I am 14 after all, and my English isn't exactly perfect.


#31 Ryan

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 04:13 AM

It's not as easy as just throwing money and men (and women too) at the problem.
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#32 norfolkwesternhenry

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 12:49 AM

I didn't try to say it would be, but with lots of money, men, and machinery, you could get lots of work done. It might take fifteen million people and 140 billion dollars, but you could get it done in a day. Anything is possible.

Empire Builder MSP-CHI (2) CHI-MSP (2) MSP-PDX (1) MSP-CBS (5.5 H late) (1) MKE-MSP (1) MSP-SEA (1) Coast Starlate PDX-EMY (1.5H late) (1) California Zephyr DEN-SLC (1H late) (1) Hiawatha CHI-MKE (1) NE Regional WAS-BAL (1) WAS-NYP (1) Acela Express BAL-WAS (1) BOS-WAS (1) Late Shore (Limited service) CHI-BOS (On Time) (1) Capitol Limited WAS-CHI (1) Texas Eagle SAS-CHI (1.5 HR late, 1 HR late) (2) CHI-SAS (1) (55 min early) Wolverine DET-DER-ARB-CHI (35 Min late) (1) Cascades SEA-VAC (1)
Non-Amtrak: VIA: Corridor Service Q.C.-Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto-Windsor (1) Canadian: VAC-Winnipeg 4.5 H late (1) D. C. metro, Montreal Metro, Toronto subway, Portland streetcars, BART, Metra, NYC subway, Boston subway, Twin cities Blue/Green line
train cars travelled in: Superliner: Coach, Sleeper, Diner, CCC, SSL. Amfleet: LD Café, Café/Business, coach. Viewliner: Sleeper, Diner. Acela: Café, Business, quiet car. Horizon: Coach. Talgo: coach, diner, café; non Amtrak: ex CP Via Canadian Manor cars, Park car, diner,sleeper, Skyline lounge. LRC trainset: coach (tilt de-activated)

No trees were killed to make this, but a number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

My apologies if I offend you, or seem stubborn, it's simply my nature. I am 14 after all, and my English isn't exactly perfect.


#33 keelhauled

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 07:25 AM

Anything is possible.

Except for a multi billion dollar project going off exactly as smoothly as planned. This is just fantasy, there's a better chance of someone inventing the transporter from Star Trek and making every train on earth obsolete.

Go on, raise the flag, I got stars in my eyes...I'm in love with her and I won't apologize.


#34 jis

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 08:05 AM

"Anything is possible" is the attitude of a naive person who has no experience of real life. :) It is good to be a dreamer, but it is not good to be guided by one that is not moderated by realities.

 

There is also the issue that you cannot assign 9 mothers to create a baby in one month either. It takes nine months or thereabouts, no matter what. :P



#35 Thirdrail7

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 09:26 AM

Even money and manpower have to give way to physics. There are certain things (like installing concrete anchored catenary poles ) that would take time. You still would have to allow the concrete to set before you can attach the poles to the base. Then,. you have to install the poles and string the wires. That is a time consuming process.


They say laughter is the best medicine. Obviously they never posted on AU.


#36 dlagrua

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 10:23 AM

Save for unusual circumstances the NEC is not shutting down so this post is dealing with an unlikely scenario. The only partial shutdown will be at NYP where switch repair.will occur in July and Aug.  Albany trains will originate at GCT while the Crescent will depart at WAS. Have not heard about the Cardinal as yet. I believe that 3 NEC trains will be cut from the schedule. The repairs will impact LIRR and NJT the most as they account for over 90% of traffic at that station.



#37 norfolkwesternhenry

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 12:26 PM

I said possible. Not likely. The chance that everything goes smoothly and works out just as planned IS as likely as someone inventing the transporter from Star Trek, or me becoming president.

Empire Builder MSP-CHI (2) CHI-MSP (2) MSP-PDX (1) MSP-CBS (5.5 H late) (1) MKE-MSP (1) MSP-SEA (1) Coast Starlate PDX-EMY (1.5H late) (1) California Zephyr DEN-SLC (1H late) (1) Hiawatha CHI-MKE (1) NE Regional WAS-BAL (1) WAS-NYP (1) Acela Express BAL-WAS (1) BOS-WAS (1) Late Shore (Limited service) CHI-BOS (On Time) (1) Capitol Limited WAS-CHI (1) Texas Eagle SAS-CHI (1.5 HR late, 1 HR late) (2) CHI-SAS (1) (55 min early) Wolverine DET-DER-ARB-CHI (35 Min late) (1) Cascades SEA-VAC (1)
Non-Amtrak: VIA: Corridor Service Q.C.-Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto-Windsor (1) Canadian: VAC-Winnipeg 4.5 H late (1) D. C. metro, Montreal Metro, Toronto subway, Portland streetcars, BART, Metra, NYC subway, Boston subway, Twin cities Blue/Green line
train cars travelled in: Superliner: Coach, Sleeper, Diner, CCC, SSL. Amfleet: LD Café, Café/Business, coach. Viewliner: Sleeper, Diner. Acela: Café, Business, quiet car. Horizon: Coach. Talgo: coach, diner, café; non Amtrak: ex CP Via Canadian Manor cars, Park car, diner,sleeper, Skyline lounge. LRC trainset: coach (tilt de-activated)

No trees were killed to make this, but a number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.

My apologies if I offend you, or seem stubborn, it's simply my nature. I am 14 after all, and my English isn't exactly perfect.


#38 Bob Dylan

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 12:59 PM

I said possible. Not likely. The chance that everything goes smoothly and works out just as planned IS as likely as someone inventing the transporter from Star Trek, or me becoming president.

Don't under estimate the possibility of you becoming President! There's plenty of examples of this "Impossible Dream" coming True in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Terminally Dumb!😣
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Yet there isn't a train I wouldn't take,No matter where its going!.." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

#39 Alexandria Nick

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 05:13 PM

Even money and manpower have to give way to physics. There are certain things (like installing concrete anchored catenary poles ) that would take time. You still would have to allow the concrete to set before you can attach the poles to the base. Then,. you have to install the poles and string the wires. That is a time consuming process.

This does make me wonder, though. Even accounting for things like concrete doing its thing, there's still a hypothetical cadence you could meet.  

 

Let's say it takes a week before you can attach the poles and it takes a day to make said a pair of footings for each pole.  You could build one pair a day from January 1 to December 24, start installing the poles on January 8, and complete the December 24th cat pole on December 31. One crew could do 716 cat poles in a year under those hypothetical conditions.

 

Extremely rough calculations give me around 20,000 poles, which translates to 28 teams of really hard working dudes, who probably had to luck into some of the best weather ever and probably some of the toughest management since the days of the Pharaohs. 



#40 Ryan

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Posted 20 June 2017 - 05:59 PM

I said possible. Not likely. The chance that everything goes smoothly and works out just as planned IS as likely as someone inventing the transporter from Star Trek, or me becoming president.


And you've already been told it is impossible, the sequence of work is longer than 24 hours.

Yet here you are still debating the point.
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