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NARP's "Vision For Trains In America"


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#61 west point

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Posted 10 June 2017 - 09:39 AM

@West Point:
I'm going to go off of NARP's ridership data (which differs a little from the Amtrak ridership report data), but 5 of your top 9 ridership pairs and 4 of your top 9 revenue pairs fall under that category.  Setting aside the Hoosier State-supplemented stops in Indiana, Charlottesville and Cincinnati both send quite a few folks through to Chicago (ridership to Chicago is right behind ridership to Atlanta for CVS, which is saying something considering that ATL has the Crescent running daily versus the Cardinal going 3x weekly).  With that aside, the stops in WV switch back and forth between WAS and CHI as their #1 destination (HUN and WSS have WAS, HIN and CHW have CHI).  The turnover in CVS has actually been pretty stunning every time I've seen it.


Anderson ========
That was my suspicion on riders CVS west <> CHI. But it is somewhat surprising the ATL comparison. Have done ATL <> CVS <> Cardinal going west. Had quite a few connecting passengers waiting with us at CVS. The long wait at CVS enable views of the university and downtown on the trolley.

#62 Anderson

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Posted 10 June 2017 - 05:17 PM

One thing to remember is that CVS is a significant transfer point for both trains: There's a bus from RVR/RVM to CVS to connect to/from both the Crescent and Cardinal, and the Cardinal's bus allows a legal connection to the Silver Service (and to Hampton Roads on Friday and Sunday) while the Crescent's allows the connection both ways on a daily basis IIRC.  Basically, if there's something screwed up with the Cap, I could use the Cardinal as a backup from my usual stations.

Edit: I actually did this once, and I got to have a dining car breakfast and lunch en route.  I missed dinner...but mainly because I was having too much fun enjoying the ride along Afton Mountain.


Edited by Anderson, 12 June 2017 - 03:52 AM.

Capitol Limited (7), CA Zephyr (4) Lake Shore Limited (1), Acela (2), NE Regional (2), Sliver Meteor (4)

Upcoming: Silver Meteor (1), Lake Shore Limited (1), SW Chief (2), MO River Runner (1), Texas Eagle (1)

Possibly Upcoming: Either Texas Eagle (1), Capitol Limited (1), Silver Meteor (2) or Texas Eagle (1), Capitol Limited (1), Silver Meteor (1)

#63 ainamkartma

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Posted 13 June 2017 - 10:32 AM

 

Agree with Anderson. Until there is enough support in Phoenix, there is no stop in Phoenix, which makes part of that plan very hard. On the east end, Dallas to Houston to New Orleans seems like the correct daily train to me. Stop at College Station...

Phoenix is a bit of an odd duck:

 

Another thing to consider regarding Phoenix is that its status as a major airline hub is likely to change over the next decade.  When USAir merged with American Airlines, one of the conditions of Justice Department approval of the merger was that the combined company would not make major reductions of flights at any hub for three years after the merger.  One of the big reasons for the imposition of this restriction was that it was pretty obvious to everyone in the aviation world that the new AA can't sustain major hubs at both LAX and PHX: they are too close together.  So it is pretty obvious that as soon as the three year window expires, which I believe it this coming December, AA will start more or less drastically ramping down operations at PHX, since obviously they can't reduce their international and transcontinental operations at LAX.  Since the merger, they have been slowly increasing their domestic operations at LAX and making significant capacity improvements at LAX.

 

So, the long and short of it is that there is a real possibility, at least, that PHX will become much less convenient to reach by air over the next decade, which will change the cost-benefit analysis of improving Amtrak service there.

 

Ainamkartma



#64 railiner

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Posted 13 June 2017 - 11:19 AM


 


Agree with Anderson. Until there is enough support in Phoenix, there is no stop in Phoenix, which makes part of that plan very hard. On the east end, Dallas to Houston to New Orleans seems like the correct daily train to me. Stop at College Station...

Phoenix is a bit of an odd duck:
 
Another thing to consider regarding Phoenix is that its status as a major airline hub is likely to change over the next decade.  When USAir merged with American Airlines, one of the conditions of Justice Department approval of the merger was that the combined company would not make major reductions of flights at any hub for three years after the merger.  One of the big reasons for the imposition of this restriction was that it was pretty obvious to everyone in the aviation world that the new AA can't sustain major hubs at both LAX and PHX: they are too close together.  So it is pretty obvious that as soon as the three year window expires, which I believe it this coming December, AA will start more or less drastically ramping down operations at PHX, since obviously they can't reduce their international and transcontinental operations at LAX.  Since the merger, they have been slowly increasing their domestic operations at LAX and making significant capacity improvements at LAX.
 
So, the long and short of it is that there is a real possibility, at least, that PHX will become much less convenient to reach by air over the next decade, which will change the cost-benefit analysis of improving Amtrak service there.
 
Ainamkartma
Interesting...if LA and Phoenix hubs are too close together, what do you think will happen with JFK and Philly?....:)
metroblue?

okay on the blue!

#65 jis

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Posted 13 June 2017 - 11:28 AM

Or Newark and Washington Dulles for that matter.



#66 ainamkartma

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Posted 13 June 2017 - 12:00 PM

The scuttlebutt on Flyertalk is that PHL will also suffer badly, but PHX will be hit hardest.  But in the slightly longer term, remember that AA's terminal at JFK was designed to have ~twice as many gates as were actually constructed; they halted construction when it was half finished.  So there is huge capacity available there, possible after an extended construction period.

 

I have not paid any attention to discussions of UA's plans regarding hubs in the northeast, but one could certainly imagine that NYC and Washington both have enough premium O&D traffic to justify nearby hubs or at least major operation centers.  This is also true of LAX, but emphatically not true of PHX or PHL.

 

However, I guess no one outside of the AA management really knows what their plans are, of course.  Certainly not me.

 

Ainamkartma



#67 Lonestar648

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Posted 14 June 2017 - 12:13 PM

There is also a saturation point that the airlines try to ignore at the HUB cities like Chicago, Atlanta, New York, etc.  On a good day, there are more flights in/out of Chicago O'Hare than the ATC system can handle per hour.  UA and AA flight each other for space on a regular basis. Phoenix could easily loose its status as a major HUB by either just eliminating certain flights that do not fill up and moving others to HUBs like LAX, DFW, or ORD. Air fares in/out of Phoenix area including Tuscon, are likely to rise with the reduced capacity. But with only a three day a week SL, I doubt Amtrak will see much change.


Trains Traveled On:
Texas Eagle                                      Sunset Limited                            California Zephyr                                Southwest Chief                Empire Builder            Capitol Limited           Lake Shore limited (NYP & BOS)      Crescent
Kentucky Cardinal                             Cardinal                                       Pere Marquette                                  Wolverines                        Lincoln Service            Empire Service          Keystone Service                               Acelas
NE Regionals                                    Pioneer                                        Desert Wind                                       Broadway Limited             Three Rivers                 Coast Starlight                          
 
Amtrak Miles Logged: over 211,000





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