April, 2016 Monthly Performance Report

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afigg

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The April 2016 Monthly Performance Report has been posted to the website. I don't have time this morning to write a proper summary, but it could be summed up as "ouch". Not a good month for ridership and revenue for the NEC and the state corridors. An ok month for the LD trains. The improving On-Time Performance is one of the few bright spots.

One note about comparing April ridership stats to last April is that in 2015, Easter was on April 5. In 2016, Easter was on March 27. So much of the Easter travel shifted from April to March this year, helping to make March to March numbers look better while dampening the April numbers this year.
 
The California Zephyr continues to show impressive gains, compared to the general decline (which is probably largely due to the date of Easter). I have to attribute the CZ's gains to Denver. I rode the CZ in May. It had decent ridership from Emeryville to Reno, is really empty from there to Grand Junction, was boosted by a large tour group from Grand Junction east, and then had solid ridership east of Denver. I'd estimate the peak segment is actually Omaha-Burlington.

In the same trip, I discovered that on the LSL, the dining car can't keep up with the demand for breakfast. They need to improve procedures. Ridership seemed a bit on the low side, but the stats are saying it's up. I figure the LSL ridership is still recovering from the NS schedule sabotage during the "Autorouter incident" in late 2014.

Worth noting, again, is that the allocations give nonsense accounting. If you believe the allocations (which I don't) the most horrendously unprofitable activity Amtrak engages in is "freight and other customers", which "loses" as much as the entire long distance and state-sponsored divisions put together. Anyone who uses Amtrak's fully-allocated accounting to claim that the long-distance trains "lose money" should be railing against the $100 million subsidies which Amtrak is "giving" to the freight railroads. Of course this is all nonsense; it's all allocations.

The OTP trends are very good. All the freights seem to have finally got slow order (undermaintenance) delays under control. For freight train interference, CP's performance is *spectacular* and leaves nothing to complain about. BNSF is coming close. Those two could be described as good partners to Amtrak. NS has now become the worst, though I suspect it's again due to failure to address the Chicago Line bottlenecks, probably combined with aftereffects from the Autorouter disaster in late 2014. CSX and CN are still not doing what they should, but they're improving too. Worth noting is that CN is apparently not maintaining its signals properly. UP is steady at a delay level which is really too high, but which seems to be tolerable to passengers, so if CSX, NS, and CN can get down to that level and *stay* there, people will be fairly happy.
 
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This could be another topic, but could the current TSA caused delays at major airports make some people consider Amtrak? Perhaps this might be reflected in subsequent reports.
 
It's bad that Amtrak even says that Gas prices are hitting them in the gut. :( Amtrak is longing for the day where it goes up again.. I read an article I think on Facebook that said that gas is the lowest this Memorial Day since 2005. Where I normally get gas the price was a steady $2.35 for weeks. Last week it went up to $2.43.. Keep in mind that in PA we have a higher tax on Gas to fund things such as the Keystone service and other forms of Public Transit. I jokingly call it the Bail out Septa tax. Cause that's what it did.
 
Why is there a huge jump on ridership on the Palmetto train? 90% increase!
They had a Regional leaving NYC about the same time as the Palmetto. Genius insight. Hook them together, then unhook them in D.C. where they have to unhook the engines anyway. Credit all those passengers riding the NEC to the Palmetto's Long Distance account.

Sure, it would be great to do another quick fix like this. But looking at the timetable gave me a headache, I mean, I didn't find another Regional dead-ending in D.C. Now they go beyond, to Lynchburg, Richmond, Norfolk, or Newport News.

So we have this terrific transfusion of ridership stats and revenue from a former Regional NEC division train to the Long Distance division via the Palmetto.
 
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Why is there a huge jump on ridership on the Palmetto train? 90% increase!
A few months ago, the Palmetto was combined with a Regional slot and opened for intra-NEC ticket sales between NYP and WAS, both northbound and southbound. The additional intra-NEC passengers and revenue are being added to the Palmetto numbers and not the NEC stats, unlike the VA Regionals and the Vermonter. By doing so, it is helping to boost the Palmetto revenue and cost recovery numbers and the total LD ridership numbers.
 
This could be another topic, but could the current TSA caused delays at major airports make some people consider Amtrak? Perhaps this might be reflected in subsequent reports.
Besides maybe giving a few people who fly between the NEC cities a reason to switch to the Acela and Regionals, I really can't see the TSA delays having any detectable effect on Amtrak ridership. Ok, maybe a few other corridor services that are semi-competitive in trip time with flying, but otherwise, why would new long lines at the airport make a difference when modern airline travel is already not that pleasant an experience for most people?
 
It's bad that Amtrak even says that Gas prices are hitting them in the gut. :( Amtrak is longing for the day where it goes up again.. I read an article I think on Facebook that said that gas is the lowest this Memorial Day since 2005. Where I normally get gas the price was a steady $2.35 for weeks. Last week it went up to $2.43.. Keep in mind that in PA we have a higher tax on Gas to fund things such as the Keystone service and other forms of Public Transit. I jokingly call it the Bail out Septa tax. Cause that's what it did.
As I recall, most of the revenue being raised from the Pennsylvania gas tax structural changes and increase is going to roads, highways, and fixing or replacing road & highway bridges, SEPTA and transit - which badly needed the additional funds - are only getting a small to modest piece.

Anyway, gas prices of course are driven by the price of oil. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude prices reached around $50 a barrel today, back to about where they were last October. So prices at the local gas stations are going up, but will remain well below the prices of 2-3 years ago.
 
Something worth noting: The Palmetto's gains are basically sandbagging the NEC. YTD the Regionals are off 48k vs last year and 123k vs budget while the Palmetto is up about 90k over both...so at least on the Regionals, a lot of the "problem" with the budget is that nobody told the budget folks to account for the schedule switch (which, arguably, isn't in their bailiwick).

Two other areas which stand out:
-The Hoosier State: Ridership continues to be sandbagged by those buses that Amtrak threw into the system to cause problems, but revenue is also up noticeably.

-Virginia: If I'm eyeballing the numbers, it looks a lot like RVR-WAS took it in the shorts while the NPN/NFK-WAS segments are holding up quite well by comparison.

Finally...the end might be in sight on lower gas prices after the summer. Production is apparently on the way down enough to cover the production glut.
 
Something worth noting: The Palmetto's gains are basically sandbagging the NEC. YTD the Regionals are off 48k vs last year and 123k vs budget while the Palmetto is up about 90k over both...so at least on the Regionals, a lot of the "problem" with the budget is that nobody told the budget folks to account for the schedule switch (which, arguably, isn't in their bailiwick).
I've thought the same thing - I think they really need to treat the Palmetto more like a Regional train for the purposes of ridership and revenue, since I think it's easy to see that it has taken a good chunk of NER ridership.
 
Something worth noting: The Palmetto's gains are basically sandbagging the NEC. YTD the Regionals are off 48k vs last year and 123k vs budget while the Palmetto is up about 90k over both...so at least on the Regionals, a lot of the "problem" with the budget is that nobody told the budget folks to account for the schedule switch (which, arguably, isn't in their bailiwick).
I've thought the same thing - I think they really need to treat the Palmetto more like a Regional train for the purposes of ridership and revenue, since I think it's easy to see that it has taken a good chunk of NER ridership.
It's also the only LD train that doesn't have overnight service.
 
I've thought the same thing - I think they really need to treat the Palmetto more like a Regional train for the purposes of ridership and revenue, since I think it's easy to see that it has taken a good chunk of NER ridership.
On the Palmetto, the pure NEC riders i.e. those that have O and D both within the NEC spine, should be credited to the NER and those that travel beyond the NEC should be credited to Palmetto. Afterall, they seem to have no problem adding three drop off cars at WS, but somehow their fancy accounting system cannot deal with the reality. More Amtrak accounting bovine scatology.Palmetto actually connects three "regions" together, depedning on how one counts of course. But crudely speaking it connects the Northeast with Tidewater and the Southeast. It is way more than just a Regional train. Next someone will suggest that the Star should be counted as a Regional train should it start carrying intra-NEC passengers on the NEC. :p
 
I'm perfectly happy to see this "transfusion" of ridership stats and revenue from an NEC train to the Palmetto. And why shouldn't the Palmetto get credit for the riders and their tickets? After all, it's the Palmetto that continues running. The Regional was reduced to cut off cars.

Maybe there's "political bookkeeping' going on, a transfusion of ridership figures and ticket revenue from the strong "operating surplus" NEC division to help the weak "money losing" Long Distance division. If so, I'm for it.

If the transfusion puts the Palmetto into operating surplus, it's good for all of Amtrak. Politically, we all want Boardman to be able to tell Congress, "We now have two LD trains that are positive, the Auto Train and the Palmetto. We have two more about break-even, and with the new Viewliners coming they will probably join the Palmetto in showing an operating surplus."

If we ever hope to see a hundred new single-level cars coming into the fleet every year, Amtrak needs to have a positive story to tell. Yeah, I'm saying the Regionals are more likely to get new cars sooner if the LDs can tell a more hopeful story than they could have without the Palmetto success.

So if the same kind of deal can be made for other LDs, or the Carolinian, by all means let's go for it. Adding drop off cars to the Silver Star (or others NYC-D.C.) would not make it a regional train. LDs have overnight routes, excepting the Palmetto. of course. :)

Srsly, combining a Regional with a true LD train would be harder. The LDs carry a sleeper or two, a diner, and a baggage car. They are already long trains before picking up a few cut out cars. But if it can be done, lets go for it.

--------------------------------------------

On current operations, I'll assume Amtrak and the commuter lines benefit from having one less train on the tracks to contend with during the morning rush hours.

Now help me here: How many engines were they using for the two trains? How many are they using for a combined train?
 
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It's bad that Amtrak even says that Gas prices are hitting them in the gut. :( Amtrak is longing for the day when it goes up again….

in PA we have a higher tax on Gas to fund things such as the Keystone service and other forms of Public Transit. I jokingly call it the Bail out Septa tax. Cause that's what it did.
And it's a great thing that you have that tax. Of course, I'm in NYC so I don't have to pay it. LOL.

But Septa desperately needed bailing out. More deferred maintenance than NYC or the NEC. Now there's money to do stuff that has to be done. Now they mostly need more time. And politicians are again talking about adding frequencies Harrisburg-Pittsburgh, like they think there could be money to do something big like that.

btw I recall reading a document on-line, probably Penn DOT, about plans for the Keystone (east of Harrisburg) It bluntly stated that movement was underway on stations, track and right of way improvements toward Harrisburg. It said the portion of the trackage in Septa territory was the hold-up, and until Septa got the funds to do its part, getting the Keystones up to 125 mph couldn't happen. But I haven't seen anything lately about upgrades between Philly and Paoli. I know Septa has a long To-Do list. Still I wonder when they might get around to the Keystone route.
 
The Palmetto's gains are basically sandbagging the NEC. YTD the Regionals are off 48k vs last year ... while the Palmetto is up about 90k ...
Sandbagging? Get a grip, man! :giggle: We're talking 22,000 pax a month. The Regionals will survive.

There used to be two short trains departing from NYC within minutes of each other. They were combined into one train for the segment NYC-D.C. by keeping one train and adding cut off cars to it from the other. At D.C., where the train loses its electric locomotive and gains a diesel, the cut off cars are cut off, too. Service on the LD train did not decline, and the riders seem happy. Presumably the crew and other costs are billed to the surviving LD train on the NEC even when it is carrying the cut off cars.

Now let's relax about the Regionals and enjoy life.
 
It's bad that Amtrak even says that Gas prices are hitting them in the gut. :( Amtrak is longing for the day when it goes up again….

in PA we have a higher tax on Gas to fund things such as the Keystone service and other forms of Public Transit. I jokingly call it the Bail out Septa tax. Cause that's what it did.
And it's a great thing that you have that tax. Of course, I'm in NYC so I don't have to pay it. LOL.

But Septa desperately needed bailing out. More deferred maintenance than NYC or the NEC. Now there's money to do stuff that has to be done. Now they mostly need more time. And politicians are again talking about adding frequencies Harrisburg-Pittsburgh, like they think there could be money to do something big like that.

btw I recall reading a document on-line, probably Penn DOT, about plans for the Keystone (east of Harrisburg) It bluntly stated that movement was underway on stations, track and right of way improvements toward Harrisburg. It said the portion of the trackage in Septa territory was the hold-up, and until Septa got the funds to do its part, getting the Keystones up to 125 mph couldn't happen. But I haven't seen anything lately about upgrades between Philly and Paoli. I know Septa has a long To-Do list. Still I wonder when they might get around to the Keystone route.
It's probably the only tax I don't mind paying. LOL!! But yes their were plans to make it 125.

The Palmetto's gains are basically sandbagging the NEC. YTD the Regionals are off 48k vs last year ... while the Palmetto is up about 90k ...
Sandbagging? Get a grip, man! :giggle: We're talking 22,000 pax a month. The Regionals will survive.

There used to be two short trains departing from NYC within minutes of each other. They were combined into one train for the segment NYC-D.C. by keeping one train and adding cut off cars to it from the other. At D.C., where the train loses its electric locomotive and gains a diesel, the cut off cars are cut off, too. Service on the LD train did not decline, and the riders seem happy. Presumably the crew and other costs are billed to the surviving LD train on the NEC even when it is carrying the cut off cars.

Now let's relax about the Regionals and enjoy life.
22,000 is quite a decent number.
 
Amtrak has been marketing, promoting, and giving discounts on the Regionals (plus the Acela) like they are the best thing since sliced bread, while basically ignoring everything else (at least in my opinion and, perhaps, limited experience). I live in Regionals country, and if I can take anything else, I will (can't do it going north, unfortunately, but south has some other choices). The Northeast Regionals in general are crowded with rude people, and there are no assigned seats or much help from the conductors in finding you one. There are days I find my ride on NJT nicer than a ride on the Regional (and that's really saying something, considering what I think of NJT).

What goes around comes around--perhaps it is time for the Regionals to feel what it's like to lose ridership for a change.
 
22,000 is quite a decent number.
But it really is Amtrak's inability to account properly for almost anything that irks me more than anything else.

What goes around comes around--perhaps it is time for the Regionals to feel what it's like to lose ridership for a change.
This Palmetto thing is just yet another example of Amtrak's possibly unintentional cooking of books, since perhaps even they do not realize it. :p
 
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Realistically I think that intra-NEC riders for non-Regional trains (e.g Palmetto, Carolinian, Star/Meteor/Crescent during the experiment a few years ago) which are credited to the NEC should go in the NEC category akin to "Special Trains": Either as "Other NEC" or broken out by train (with revenue credited to the train actually carrying the pax in other areas, even if an asterisk goes in saying "of $12m in revenue $2.5m was on the NEC").

And...20k/month is nothing to sneeze at for any of Amtrak's business lines (to say nothing of a single train). Frankly this goes back to some comments I made a while back to the effect that Amtrak should, at least SB, sell managed space on some of the LD trains NYP-WAS. NB is more complicated because of the discharge-only rules and possible delays, but...frankly, every sleeping car space which is empty from NYP to WAS is arguably a waste (and especially on the Meteor, you need space to be open to/from WAS to account for connections to/from the Cap), especially now that there's wifi to be had. I can get a lot more done in a roomette with a table I can use as a desk and a door I can close than I can with a seatmate in BC.
 
This Palmetto thing is just yet another example of Amtrak's possibly unintentional cooking of books, since perhaps even they do not realize it. :p
The cooking of the books? One would think someone would catch a 90% change before it gets published.

Of course I agree the real cooking is cost allocation. Simple run the drop cars as a different train number. Would address most of this issue. No matter how bad the accounting is.
 
I'm not a numbers cruncher, but compared to the Meteor it looks like the Star is losing more passengers and revenue. I'd hope to we the return of the dining car, once the Viewliners rollout.
 
But it really is Amtrak's inability to account properly for almost anything that irks me more than anything else.
I honestly have to blame Congress for this. Amtrak inherited the fundamentally fraudulent accounting of the former private railroads (almost all of them were running accounting scams of one sort or another; it's very common if your company is on the verge of bankruptcy). Can't blame Amtrak or Congress for that. But rather than make it better, Congress ordered them to make it *worse* by "full allocation" nonsense.
 
Yeah, the root cause often lies with the FRA and Congress, but the proximate inability is of Amtrak for all sorts of Byzantine reasons. Nothing really prevents Amtrak from providing additional more honest information, specially where it might be to their advantage. For example like Boardman let slip through his slide set.
 
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