March 2016 Monthly Performance Report

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afigg

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The March 2016 Monthly Performance Report has been posted on the website. The ridership, revenue, and operating numbers for March and the first half of the fiscal year are available for review.

I don't have time for a detailed post at the moment, so I'll leave that to others. Quick summary is the system ridership for the month of March was up +1.9%, ticket revenue was down -1.3% compared to 2015 and both were well below budget. But, as noted in discussions of the previous monthly reports, the budget projections were really optimistic for the fiscal year.

Good month for the LD trains with ridership up +7.5%, revenue +2.2%. However the Palmetto allowing trips on the NEC and attributing those sales to the Palmetto is contributing to the big gain. Still, ridership is still up overall for the LD trains even discounting the Palmetto increase.

System end point On-time performance for March was 82%, up +12.4% over March 2015. All Stations OTP in March was 81.1% so it not just schedule padding for the last station stop. Solid improvement in OTP for the NEC, most state corridors and the LD trains. In general, the trains that had poorer OTP were in the southeast: Piedmont, Carolinian, the Silvers, Palmetto, the Autotrain, and the Crescent. I think track project work on the A-Line in VA & NC and on the Piedmont corridor is a factor for those trains. The Empire Builder had the best OTP in March and year-to-date of the LD trains, big change from previous years.
 
Yay, I can take a month off from hammering the Silver Star, which stopped the bleeding with gains in ridership across the board - overall, sleeper, and coach/business. :)

Uh oh - don't let anyone think taking the diner away is a good thing, though... :ph34r:

I honestly thought CSX was going to break the OTP charts at the end with what happened in the Southeast in March. There were a wide variety of factors that happened there, but one thing's for sure, they can thank their lucky stars that ridership didn't take a huge hit (and actually gained on some trains, like the Star).

Does anyone know/remember if they may have canceled some New Haven/Springfield Shuttle trains? Ridership was way down on the Shuttle, and they say there was major track work through there. It sure looks like they must have canceled some, but I honestly don't remember.

FINALLY there is a tiny bit of good news on the Chicago corridors - Lincoln Service (CHI to St.Louis) and Wolverine both had a year-over-year gain. This is in addition to more gains by the Hiawatha and Blue Water, which are on a roll lately. When's the ticker tape parade? :giggle: Ok, enough celebrating, another down month for many of the Chicago corridors, Missouri River Runner, and Heartland Flyer.

Pretty good month for the Virginia regionals, with Newport News being the only exception. All of the Virginia regionals are still down YTD but it's nice to see a solid month.

Long Distance Coach/Business Ridership was much better in March than the past several months, here are a few keys:

  • As noted in the report, CA Zephyr just keeps churning out amazing gains. Big kudos to whomever came up with the Reno/Sacramento link, that has been an absolute game-changer (which begs the question which other routes and city pairs might also benefit from this).
  • Texas Eagle lost an average 72 coach passengers per day in March year-over-year, which still isn't great but somewhat better than the triple-digit losses it experienced the last few months.
  • Sunset Limited had a pretty rough month, which actually marks their second in a row. There was flooding that impacted it in March, so I'll let it slide for now, but let's see if it rebounds.
  • Crescent made some amazing gains this month in both Sleeper and Coach/Business.
 
The price increases and the High Buckets ( in spite of the lower ridership) probably account for the drop in the Coach ridership on the Eagle and the Sunset which are price sensitive! Last time I rode the Eagle to Taylor there was only 15 or so passengers in Coach and the Conductor told me that Coach traffic was really down between SAS and the Metroplex( FTW/DAL).

The Bargain Buses ( Mega Bus and even the Hound) currently have great deals here in Texas.
 
  • As noted in the report, CA Zephyr just keeps churning out amazing gains. Big kudos to whomever came up with the Reno/Sacramento link, that has been an absolute game-changer (which begs the question which other routes and city pairs might also benefit from this).

  • Texas Eagle lost an average 72 coach passengers per day in March year-over-year, which still isn't great but somewhat better than the triple-digit losses it experienced the last few months.

  • Sunset Limited had a pretty rough month, which actually marks their second in a row. There was flooding that impacted it in March, so I'll let it slide for now, but let's see if it rebounds.
The CZ has a +18.5% increase in sleeper passengers for October to March, so its increase in ridership is not just due to an extra Emeryville to Reno coach car. Pulling up the March 2015 monthly report, the CZ had a +7.2% increase in sleeper passengers for the first 6 months of FY15 over FY14, so the FY16 increase is not a rebound over a poor FY15. Some of the net ridership gain over the past several years could be due to the return to the rebuilt Denver Union station. The CZ may be for several solid years of growth for trips to and from Denver with the opening of 3 regional rail lines this year.
The Texas Eagle numbers for FY16 are poor. Competition from bus services are likely a major factor. Poor OTP over the past several years also likely has contributed to a dropoff in ridership. The TE All Stations OTP did improve in March to 40.5% from a dreadful 13.4% in March 2015, so the TE OTP trend line is up.

Several interesting NEC stats in the summary comment section:

Acela first class ridership was 5% below last year; business class was 1% below last year

Northeast Regional ticket revenues were 10% below budget and 5% below last year

Northeast Regional business class ridership was 8% below last year; coach ridership was 3% above last year
So the First class sales for the Acela and the BC for Regionals were down in March. Due to prices getting too steep for the market or fewer business travelers on the NEC?
 
The Star proves that adding a Coach back will do wonders to ridership :)
Wonders? Don't know when the additional coach was added, but the March report shows the only ridership increase greater than ½% since the diner was pulled and it was up 4.1% compared to last March. However, 7 of the 9 months since pulling the diner show ridership decreases for the Star when compared to the same month in the previous year ranging from 3.2% to 23.2%.

The totals for these 9 month periods show ridership being:

• Down 5.4% 4.0% for the Silver Service

• Down 7.24% for the Silver Star and

• Down 3.32% 0.2%for the Silver Meteor.

Q: When was was the additional coach added?

[Edited to correct for ridership transcription error]
 
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The Star proves that adding a Coach back will do wonders to ridership :)
Wonders? Don't know when the additional coach was added, but the March report shows the only ridership increase greater than ½% since the diner was pulled and it was up 4.1% compared to last March. However, 7 of the 9 months since pulling the diner show ridership decreases for the Star when compared to the same month in the previous year ranging from 3.2% to 23.2%.

The totals for these 9 month periods show ridership being:

• Down 5.4% for the Silver Service

• Down 7.24% for the Silver Star and

• Down 3.32% for the Silver Meteor.

Q: When was was the additional coach added?
I believe a coach was REMOVED thereby causing the drop in ridership and jis is saying "will do wonders" implying that adding a coach will show in increase in ridership.
 
What is the "Reno/Sacramento link"?
Last month's report referred to adding cut off cars. I went looking for an announcement and found an Amtrak Press Release. After a giant snowfall, Amtrak had added a Friday and Sunday coach for skiers. I think that meant two cut off cars for two days for six weeks after the happy snowfall.

There must still be a cut off car now running regularly, (daily or weekends only?), Sacramento-Reno. So what we see with this jump in ridership is one coach added to this stretch, every day, for the winter at least. Whatever it is, it's working!

Oh, and last month's report also said the Zephyr had an added sleeper. Where they scrounged up six more sleepers for this route, we don't know. But we like it.
 
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The Star proves that adding a Coach back will do wonders to ridership :)

Ah, OK. Thanks. So when was that coach removed?

The fourth coach came off January 12. It was restored March 13.

There is no sense hauling around extra equipment that won't be filled with riders. January/February are traditionally some of the slowest months of the year. Airlines seasonally reduce capacity, why can't Amtrak? Aside from President's Day weekend, from what I saw the Star's peak loads barely filled two coaches, not three, during the reduction period. The reduction also helps catch up on PM cycles that were missed during the busy holidays when every serviceable piece of equipment was on the road packed full.

How about the ridership on the Cardinal, Crescent and Lake Shore during the same time frame? They all lost a coach or two in roughly the same period.
 
The most interesting thing in the March report is CP's *excellent* dispatching.

See, other railroads? You CAN deliver Amtrak trains on time. It's just a matter of being willing to. CP can do it.

The worst single source of delay on the entire system is CN's trackage on the Adirondack in Canada. This needs to be purchased by Quebec or Montreal as soon as possible.
 
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The CZ has a +18.5% increase in sleeper passengers for October to March, so its increase in ridership is not just due to an extra Emeryville to Reno coach car. Pulling up the March 2015 monthly report, the CZ had a +7.2% increase in sleeper passengers for the first 6 months of FY15 over FY14, so the FY16 increase is not a rebound over a poor FY15. Some of the net ridership gain over the past several years could be due to the return to the rebuilt Denver Union station. The CZ may be for several solid years of growth for trips to and from Denver with the opening of 3 regional rail lines this year.
I think you're right about Denver. Imagine what a more appropriate station in Salt Lake City could do. Salt Lake already has a local rail system connected to the Amtrak station, but it's a very poor transfer situation, both due to the schedule and due to the facilities.
 
Not to derail ( :giggle: ) this thread too much, but what considerations are required for a successful cutoff car location? Off the top of my head:

  • A destination that a lot of people would want to go to
  • A facility to keep the cutoff car out of the way of other rail traffic until the train going the other way picks it up.
  • Good, reliable connections to other transport means (rail, bus, etc.)
  • A competitive price to other transport options available
To me, this sounds like Orlando might be a good candidate, though I have no idea if a car could be kept there.
 
Not to derail ( :giggle: ) this thread too much, but what considerations are required for a successful cutoff car location? Off the top of my head:

  • A destination that a lot of people would want to go to
  • A facility to keep the cutoff car out of the way of other rail traffic until the train going the other way picks it up.
  • Good, reliable connections to other transport means (rail, bus, etc.)
  • A competitive price to other transport options available
To me, this sounds like Orlando might be a good candidate, though I have no idea if a car could be kept there.
It also should be relatively far from either terminal. Orlando is too close to Miami.
 
Not to derail ( :giggle: ) this thread too much, but what considerations are required for a successful cutoff car location? Off the top of my head:

  • A destination that a lot of people would want to go to
  • A facility to keep the cutoff car out of the way of other rail traffic until the train going the other way picks it up.
  • Good, reliable connections to other transport means (rail, bus, etc.)
  • A competitive price to other transport options available
To me, this sounds like Orlando might be a good candidate, though I have no idea if a car could be kept there.
It also should be relatively far from either terminal. Orlando is too close to Miami.
True but what about coming from the North?

Edit to add: And Orlando is actually further away from Miami than Reno is from Sacramento.
 
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... what considerations are required for a successful cutoff car location?

  • A destination that a lot of people would want to go to
  • A facility to keep the cutoff car out of the way of other rail traffic until the train going the other way picks it up.
  • Good, reliable connections to other transport means (rail, bus, etc.)
  • A competitive price to other transport options available
Once the Sunset Ltd is taken daily, and ridership more than doubles, we'll see a "new normal". Ridership from Maricopa (Phoenix) will soar, once the station gets daily limo/bus service to/from various stop in the Phoenix metro. (Nobody can do this business on 3 days a week, but daily, it will be like airport shuttles.)

Then a cut off car or two at Tucson and/or Maricopa for the L.A. corridor overnight ride might work well. In that case, your considerations would include a shaded place to park the cut off cars. :eek: Perhaps put solar panels on the shed roof.
 
Yes. A lot of people, including some Floridians do not seem to comprehend how big Florida really is.
Tomorrow, I begin a drive to Texas, leaving from Miami. After 8.5 hours of driving [including a stop or two] I'll be in Tallahassee. The next day, I'll spend half of it driving up to and west across the Panhandle. Yup, a big state.
 
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My apologies for the significant error just discovered in the figures in Post #9. These made a drastic change in the ridership of the Silver Meteor as shown here from Post #9:

• Down 5.4% 4.0% for the Silver Service

• Down 7.24% for the Silver Star and

• Down 3.32% 0.2%for the Silver Meteor.

One way of looking at it, the percent of ridership decrease for the Star is about 36 times that of the Meteor during that 9 month period. And if the 2 month period when the Star had one less coach (thanks for the info, AmtrakLKL) is simply a reaction to the decreased ridership - and not its cause - then it would seem the number of coaches has no bearing on this matter. For those who like staring at lots of numbers, here's the worksheet giving rise to the numbers above:

StarMeteorRiders.jpg
 
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