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CCC1007

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Please use this thread to speculate as to where the Talgo sets that were originally built for Wisconsin will be used.
 
Please use this thread to speculate as to where the Talgo sets that were originally built for Wisconsin will be used.
Michigan would be a logical place but the Cascades would also be a consideration since they already run Talgo equipment.

Of course if Wisconsin was to come to it senses and get rid of Scott Walker, they could be used as intended in Wisconsin!
 
It is likely that the orphaned Talgos will end up in the Northwest, as it is the only location currently set up to use and maintain this equipment. Remember, these train sets have maintenance contracts. The Washington state rail plan includes not only more north-south service, but east-west service as well--daylight SEA-SPK via Stampede Pass and Ellensburg would be particularly useful. Unfortunately, there is no money in the WA state budget at present to buy the equipment, but I suspect that Talgo North America could be convinced to offer generous terms.
 
Please use this thread to speculate as to where the Talgo sets that were originally built for Wisconsin will be used.
Michigan would be a logical place but the Cascades would also be a consideration since they already run Talgo equipment.

Of course if Wisconsin was to come to it senses and get rid of Scott Walker, they could be used as intended in Wisconsin!
At least smarter people at the national level came to their senses. Now, Scottie is actively soliciting here in WI try to get us to bail him out of his huge campaign debt. Guess he forked out a little too much cash for the daily lobster rolls and his "personal photographer."
 
The MI bid is still "open" However there hasn't been any progress made on it. MDOT is only saying that they do not have a timeline. I think that the hold up is on the congressional side; due to funding investigations into MDOT. That & most of MI congress has been tied up with the road repair funding issue.

I'm not a great wordsmith, but if someone wanted to craft a letter to the MI House Transportation Committee encouraging their purchase, we might hear something more. Peter Pettalia [® 106] is the chair.

peter
 
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There still remains the minor issue of where the two sets will be maintained should they be deployed somewhere other than the North West. Currently there are no ready facilities in the mid west where such servicing could be carried out. So that will be an additional cost over and beyond just purchasing or leasing the sets.
 
Wisconsin's decision to go with Talgos was questionable from the beginning. If the rest of the Midwest also went with Talgo, as had been suggested by the Midwest Regional Rail Initiative, it would have made more sense. But with the rest of the Midwest largely standardizing on the bilevels, it started to make less sense to me. Maybe if the rest of the MWRRI proposed lines in WI were built out and served by Talgo trains (CHI-MKE-GBY, CHI-MKE-MSN-MSP), but not as a small 2 train CHI-MKE fleet (or 4 train CHI-MKE-MSN fleet).

The tilting feature might prove useful for California to use on the Coast Line, if/when the Coast Daylight ever comes to be. But again, that's just a 2 train stand alone fleet. I think it's OR/WA or bust, either as additional Cascades trainsets or for a future SEA-SPK service.
 
3 are currently owned by WA, 2 by OR, and 2 by Amtrak. Who would take the 2?
Maybe British Columbia? iirc, The Wisconsin Talgos are missing a car or three, like, Business Class, lounge? So they don't match the make-up of the current Cascades trainsets. Need to get the missing cars somehow, or otherwise explain to customers every day that this train doesn't have what you rode in yesterday.

But because of the Buy America rules, the half a dozen Business Class cars or whatever, would be almost handmade in the US. But if British Columbia could import them direct from a factory in Spain, they'd be off-the-shelf cheaper.

Not sure that B.C. wants more Cascades service badly enuff to buy the two trainsets and import the added cars, but maybe. Or maybe 'Washington can buy the existing trainsets and partner with B.C. buying the needed cars. Clumsy, but with good will it could work.
 
Please use this thread to speculate as to where the Talgo sets that were originally built for Wisconsin will be used.
The most logical place is the Cascades. According to the Long Term Plan, Washington State is scheduled to need to buy another trainset for the expanded service planned in, IIRC, 2020, or maybe it was as early as 2017.
They aren't going to find a near-matching set for any cheaper than this. They'd have to reconfigure the trains to provide the services expected by Cascades passengers, of course.

WA has been ignoring the "Michigan Talgos" because they've got a lot of work on their plates before 2017 and can't possibly use additional trainsets before then. If they're still sitting there in 2018, I really would expect Washington to buy them for cheap.
 
3 are currently owned by WA, 2 by OR, and 2 by Amtrak. Who would take the 2?
There had been money in WSDOT's rail budget to buy the WI trainsets, but it was removed before final passage. But we can hope that funding could be found.
I didn't know this detail. So it didn't make it into the 2015-2017 budget....

....I suggest strong advocacy to buy the trainsets in the 2017-2019 biennium. With all the ARRA improvements including Point Defiance Bypass operating, they'll actually be able to *use* the trainsets immediately if they buy them in that budget cycle, whereas they would have still sat in mothballs after purchase if they'd been bought in this budget cycle. Also, the demands on the rail budget should relax quite a bit when so many huge projects are finished (I know there was a lot of federal money, but it all had large state matches).
 
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3 are currently owned by WA, 2 by OR, and 2 by Amtrak. Who would take the 2?
There had been money in WSDOT's rail budget to buy the WI trainsets, but it was removed before final passage. But we can hope that funding could be found.
....

.... buy the trainsets in the 2017-2019 biennium. With all the ARRA improvements including Point Defiance Bypass operating, they'll actually be able to *use* the trainsets immediately if they buy them in that budget cycle ...

+++++

... demands on the rail budget should relax quite a bit when [the Cascades] projects are finished ...
... maybe not use them immediately. BSNF would have to agree to more slots.

It agreed to the two additional when the Stimulus upgrades are finished. It might demand another siding or bridge or whatever for another slot, or two. Even down in Oregon, Portland-Eugene, or north Seattle-Vancouver, B.C., they'd probably set conditions.

But if money can be found soon, grab those Talgos.

This offer may not be repeated.

+++++

I'm expecting plenty money to appear.

By 2018, the Cascades will go from 4+ to 6+ frequencies (+ being the Coast Starlight), so greater convenience.

Wash D0T is expecting on time performance to go from a disgraceful 73% to 88% on time, for greater reliability

The schedule should be about 10 minutes faster. That's not huge but not nothing, since the trip time will drop to 3 hrs 20 min, more competitive with air and even Bolt Bus.

Two of the trainsets, and all the locomotives, will be shiny new-and-improved. The other trainsets will have been rehabbed and scrubbed to like-new.

Meanwhile Seattle's King Street Station has been restored, now a place where riders will feel proud to pass thru.

And transit connections continue to slowly expand in Seattle and Portland.

Maintenance costs should drop after the trains start moving over smoother tracks.

Advertising costs might increase in 2018, to fill those added seats, then slack off.

So, almost a 50% increase in capacity ('almost' is the Coast Starlight again) and the several improvements added up, I'm looking for ridership, now ~700,000 to exceed 1 million by 2020. And maybe ticket prices could go up a buck or two.

Plenty money to buy a couple of Talgo trainsets. They didn't cost big money brand new, and now that there's only one* buyer in sight, they'll come cheap.

* The one buyer being the Cascades service, whether Wash DOT or British Columbia or even Oregon.

Edited to correct OTP is 73% currently.
 
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... maybe not use them immediately. BSNF would have to agree to more slots.
BNSF already agreed to more slots. Conditional on particular projects being completed (Point Defiance Bypass, certainly -- and I think also the third track near Kalama and the Vancouver trackwork).

It agreed to the two additional when the Stimulus upgrades are finished.
Last I checked, Washington can't reliably run all the additional frequencies without buying additional Talgos. Even with the Oregon Talgos, because they're dedicated to the improved schedule for Oregon and Oregon will stop lending them to Washington if Oregon gets what it wants.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

Also, I believe BNSF agreed to more than two additional slots. Again, correct me if I'm wrong. I think it was a total of seven frequencies -- that's *three* additional.

Anyway, if I remember the plan from several years ago correctly, Washington needs one more trainset. Which doesn't quite match with the *two* trainsets which Talgo has... but that is one way of dealing with the trainsets being shorter than the Oregon/Washington trainsets: reassemble the two into one and a collection of spares.
 
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... maybe not use them immediately. BSNF would have to agree to more slots.
BNSF already agreed to more slots. Conditional on particular projects being completed (Point Defiance Bypass, [etc]).
It agreed to the two additional when the Stimulus upgrades are finished.
Last I checked, Washington can't reliably run all the additional frequencies without buying additional Talgos. Even with the Oregon Talgos, because they're dedicated to the improved schedule for Oregon and Oregon will stop lending them to Washington if Oregon gets what it wants....

Also, I believe BNSF agreed to more than two additional slots. I think it was a total of seven frequencies -- that's *three* additional.

Anyway, if I remember the plan from several years ago correctly, Washington needs one more trainset. Which doesn't quite match with the *two* trainsets which Talgo has... but that is one way of dealing with the trainsets being shorter than the Oregon/Washington trainsets: reassemble the two into one and a collection of spares.
It's all good.

Washington State promised the feds that there'd be two more frequencies after these upgrades finish in 2017, as a condition of getting the Stimulus money. That doesn't preclude another slot if they didn't want to over-promise.

My larger point is that the Cascades operating subsidy will drop considerably -- maybe disappear on the trunk Seattle-Portland -- due to the nearly 50% more pax, a buck or two on the ticket (because a faster nicer trip and an on-time arrival is worth a dollar more), likely lower maintenance.

From all of that, I'm looking at a much lower subsidy and therefore plenty of money for further investment in the Cascades, be it the trainsets or even a start on more projects to upgrade the route. Fix another bridge here, double-track the section over there. It won't be Stimulus-sized grants, but the legislature can look at these capital investments as being about the same as the subsidy was before, so in a way it won't "cost" any more out of the budget. And a few hundred thousand more Cascades riders means a few hundred thousand more voters in favor of more and better trains. The legislature will feel that pressure, not hot, but warm.

Meanwhile Oregon is moving along with the necessary steps. An official decision on the Preferred Alternative is coming by the end of the year, they say. Then a Draft EIS next year. About two years away from being able to use shovels and shovelers. But any improvements to the Oregon service will feed more riders to the trunk line Portland-Seattle, improving results there.

+++++

At some point, enuff traffic on the trunk could give it an operating surplus. Another blogger elsewhere (I'm at arm's length, LOL) said when some of these state-supported routes turn positive, that income stream could be pledged to back bonds. The bond money, of course, would then be re-invested in more capital improvements, cutting times, getting more pax, increasing operating surplus. Hmmn. Building without needing big money from Congress. Is this notion too good to be true?
 
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How many unique individuals actually ride the Cascade service now? I am not looking for ridership numbers, but actual individuals who ride. Just out of curiosity, since ridership numbers do not vote, but riding individual votes and each individual has exactly one vote, not the number of votes determined by how many times s/he rode a service.
 
How many unique individuals actually ride the Cascade service now? I am not looking for ridership numbers, but actual individuals who ride. Just out of curiosity, since ridership numbers do not vote, but riding individual votes and each individual has exactly one vote, not the number of votes determined by how many times s/he rode a service.
You'd have to ask our national security monitors, who track our every move, legally or not. But I'd be surprised if Amtrak snoops into our business enuff to have this exact figure.

Maybe a rough estimate. Amtrak could subtract out the multiple rides of AGR members, or even the multiple trips charged to one credit card (but not if you used several different cards). Or from surveys. The PRIIA studies revealed the breakdown of riders by age, sex, working or retired, etc.

But as for the impact of riders=voters, it's not just one vote per passenger. Most people can influence the vote of a spouse, other family members, friends, and workplace colleagues. Just as word of mouth can boost or damage a product's sales, it can certainly affect voters' choices.

Now, I'm not saying actual rail experience will sway one-issue voters like the zealot forced-birth crowd. But when a legislator moves thru a crowd, if one voter says, "I've been really pleased with the new level of service on the Cascades. And I ride the trains every week. So keep up the good work," the politician will hear that comment.

Hmmn. So if a 50% increase in ridership boosts the yearly ridership total by 350,000, how many voters is that? If all the riders travel once a week round trip, 50 weeks a year, wouldn't that be 70,000 more unique rider/voters? Not a bad number when often elections are very narrowly decided, like Gore and Bush in Florida back in 2000. And hope the 70,000 influence others.

Of course, if the success of the improvements slashes the subsidy, that will change how the Cascades are described in the media. If the trains move into an operating surplus, that will change everything.
 
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Hmm. At first I was skeptical of the likelihood of an operating surplus on the Cascades, but looking back at the numbers, Cascades are probably already profitable based on direct costs. With revenues of about $60 million and fully allocated costs of about $66 million, there isn't really much improvement necessary to be able to claim an operating surplus.

If they manage to achieve the planned 95% on-time rate which the ARRA projects are supposed to achieve, I bet they can get there.
 
...

If they manage to achieve the planned 95% on-time rate which the ARRA projects are supposed to achieve ...
Well, this project only promises 88%, due to the "hundreds of curves" and other issues to be resolved in the next phase, or the next Stimulus, or whatever. But even 88% will look sweet compared to the dismal 73% they deliver now.

Edited to give correct OTP of 73%.
 
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It agreed to the two additional when the Stimulus upgrades are finished.
...Also, I believe BNSF agreed to more than two additional slots. ... I think it was a total of seven frequencies -- that's *three* additional.

...
Ah, it will be seven frequencies if you count the Coast Starlight, which is sort of along for the ride here. All the growth action being on the state-supported Cascades, now four, going to six.

But the Starlight is a frequency from BSNF's point of view, no? Six Cascades plus one Starlight, the route will go from five to seven frequencies.
 
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...

If they manage to achieve the planned 95% on-time rate which the ARRA projects are supposed to achieve ...
Well, this project only promises 88%, due to the "hundreds of curves" and other issues to be resolved in the next phase, or the next Stimulus, or whatever. But even 88% will look sweet compared to the dismal 60-something they deliver now.
Hmmm... I'd like to see that reference -- is that just for Point Defiance Bypass? I thought 95% was supposed to be after the *cumulative* impact of the *entire* list of proposed ARRA projects.

I think there's a couple which languished in design hell and aren't getting done (second platform at Centralia comes to mind as a source of delay).

But in addition to completing Point Defiance Bypass and the Tacoma Trestle, they're also completing the entire suite of improvements around Vancouver WA, and the entire third track from Kelso to Martins Bluff, and those were supposedly the three biggest causes of delays.
 
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Ah, it will be seven frequencies if you count the Coast Starlight, which is sort of along for the ride here. All the growth action being on the state-supported Cascades, now four, going to six.

But the Starlight is a frequency from BSNF's point of view, no? Six Cascades plus one Starlight, the route will go from five to seven frequencies.
That might be correct. I still remember WSDOT saying they needed to buy one additional trainset, though.
 
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Those revenues include state subsidies.
Right. Ticket revenue is $28K out of "fully allocated" costs of $66K. We don't know what's getting "allocated", of course, but I'd expect it to be no more than half and probably more like a third of the costs. So that's a long way from an operating surplus. Still, bringing the OTP up from 60% to 88% or 95% should raise ridership and revenue quite quickly.
 
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