Poor August 2015 Monthly Performance Report

The Monthly Report for August

http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/525/92/Amtrak-Monthly-Performance-Report-August-2015.pdf

is awful.

Ridership and revenue down almost everywhere. On another site ( ), afiggatt blames "Multiple track work projects, poorer OTP, and low gasoline prices".

Seemed to me that Amtrak was not very chatty in its commentary on the results. But maybe I was just needing consolation and not finding any because the downturn is so widespread and brutal.

Maybe September will look better. But with the hit from the May crash on the NEC, looks like 2015 will be a very disappointing year.

I believe the trip between San Antonio and Los Angeles is both the Sunset Limited and the Texas Eagle. If a passenger travels that route, does it count in the ridership stats towards the SL or the TE (or both)? Does it depend on whether they originally come from? What if they start in San Antonio? Who gets the credit?

They'll get credited to whichever train they book.

The are counted as two separate trains, 1 & 421, 2 & 422. It gets book to which train they are booked on, regardless of where they board. So if you are ticketed on 421 going west out of San Antonio, it's credited to the Texas Eagle, if you are ticketed on 1, it is the Sunset.

zephyr17 said:

The are counted as two separate trains, 1 & 421, 2 & 422. It gets book to which train they are booked on, regardless of where they board. So if you are ticketed on 421 going west out of San Antonio, it's credited to the Texas Eagle, if you are ticketed on 1, it is the Sunset.

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I'd be curious to know how many passengers are on the SL from NOL to SAS and then how many passengers are on the train from SAS to LAX? If you credit all of the SAS to LAX passengers to the SL you'd have a much higher number than is listed.

The change in the bucket system pricing that Amtrak has implemented and the tremendous fare increases on tickets that we see, is probably having an effect. You can only charge so much and then you start losing your audience. Much of Amtraks customers are discretionary spenders and not part of a captive audience.

Yes, the August monthly report is indeed a lousy report for both ridership and ticket revenue. My quick off the cuff comment attributed this to track work projects, poor OTP, and low gasoline prices, but I think there are other factors such as hitting the limits of ticket price increases and competition from discount bus services on some corridors.

Ticket revenue for August was down from 2014 and is running well below budget. However, that is being offset by expenses running less than the budget, so the adjusted operating loss is still below budget. The capital spending is running well below the authorized levels, which in the long run is not good news, because that means capital improvement projects and rolling stock acquisition are being stretched out and delayed.

Ridership and Ticket Revenue
High level look at the ridership and revenue numbers. After increase in NEC ridership in June and July, both the Acela and NE Regionals were down for ridership and revenue for the month of August compared to 2014. Don’t know what happened in August to cause because the NEC has been holding up well despite the May derailment of #188. The bad news is in the state corridors with only 3 corridor services up in ridership for August, the Empire, Surfliner and Capitol Corridor. All of the rest were down for the month of August, some of them by a lot (Lynchburg and Richmond Regionals, ouch). Track work and service disruptions were a factor for some routes, but the breadth of the drop-offs in ridership and revenue suggest it is more than that.

For the LD trains, the overall numbers are not as bad. The Empire Builder, Meteor, SWC, Texas Eagle, and the Crescent had ridership increases in August. The AutoTrain continues its recent fall-off in total ridership. However, in the route performance report, the AutoTrain was running at a net operating surplus for the year to date as August which helps to reduce the total losses for the LD trains.

Ridership and Revenue summary for the month of August:
System: ridership -3.9%, revenue: -4.9%
Acela: ridership -2.8%, revenue: -3.9%
NE Regional: ridership -3.9%, revenue -2.5%
State supported corridors: ridership -5.0%, revenue -5.4%
LD trains: ridership -1.0%, revenue -7.6%

Ridership and Revenue summary for the YTD from October to August:

System: ridership +0.0%, revenue: +0.1%
Acela: ridership -1.6%, revenue: +0.5%
NE Regional: ridership +1.9%, revenue +1.7%
State supported corridors: ridership -0.2%, revenue +0.4%
LD trains: ridership -1.3%, revenue -2.4%

Unless there was a turnaround in September ridership, FY15 system ridership will not be an increase over FY14. With regards to all the HSIPR and state funded track and route improvement projects along with the various freight railroad maintenance and upgrade projects, Amtrak is in a drawn out pain stage before the gains in reliability, track speeds, and reduction in bottlenecks start to kick in.

BTW, if I may, I like to suggest that the title of this thread be revised to Poor August 2015 Monthly Performance Report so there is clarity on which August and report this thread is about for searches.

BTW, the audited FY2014 financial statement has been posted on the Amtrak reports and documents webpage. Now, that Amtrak is into FY16, good to get the FY14 financial report done.

afigg said:

BTW, if I may, I like to suggest that the title of this thread be revised to Poor August 2015 Monthly Performance Report so there is clarity on which August and report this thread is about for searches.

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Done.

I think we're still seeing aftereffects of the spectacular May crash, honestly. I predicted that ridership would suffer for a year; it was substandard in June, poor in July, worse in August.

Revenue is off so Amtrak revamps the AGR program to make it more costly for those that use points for travel! This doesn't seem to make sense to me. It should be remembered that AGR points trips are paid trips funded by retailers of those you purchase from. Making it more costly for travelers to book trips could mean that many seats and sleeper spaces go unsold. Amtrak needs to examine whether they want to fill more seats/sleepers via AGR or take the gamble that they could be sold at normal bucket prices. . The principle that you can charge whatever you want and expect revnue to rise is not sound. Keep an eye on the Autotrain over the next year. That may tell a story. Seniors on a fixed budget and those as ourselves who will now drive will no longer use the A/T. . With the falling price of gasoline, driving from Lorton to Sanford is now an attractive option.

The Oct. flooding in SC will make that month's figures worse, at least the NY to Miami part.

Alex M. said:

The Oct. flooding in SC will make that month's figures worse, at least the NY to Miami part.

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Losing the Vermonter for a few days ain't helping this month either, and the non-fatal derailment can only remind jittery customers of the terrible crash back in May.

Would be nice to be posting good results while Amtrak tries to make it thru the worst of the political season. But the CAF order won't help in time. The huge positive impact on ridership and revenues from the Stimulus projects -- the Wolverine route in Michigan, the Lincoln Services in Illinois, the Cascades Washington-Oregon, and a few other spots -- won't come in full force until late in FY 2017. That will be well after some serious political decisions are made.

The allocating of the Sunset and Eagle west of SAS by how booked can be easily altered. Just change how the reservation system presents availability. Which train shows first ? train #1 or train # 21 for example ? Which train do you want to show better ridership ?.

zephyr17 said:

The are counted as two separate trains, 1 & 421, 2 & 422. It gets book to which train they are booked on, regardless of where they board. So if you are ticketed

on 421 going west out of San Antonio, it's credited to the Texas Eagle, if you are ticketed on 1, it is the Sunset.

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So once, when I took the Empire Builder from Chicago to Havre, they booked me into the Portland sleeper. Does that mean that the statistic of my ride was credited to the Portland section of the train?

MARC Rider said:

zephyr17 said:

The are counted as two separate trains, 1 & 421, 2 & 422. It gets book to which train they are booked on, regardless of where they board. So if you are ticketed

on 421 going west out of San Antonio, it's credited to the Texas Eagle, if you are ticketed on 1, it is the Sunset.

Click to expand...

So once, when I took the Empire Builder from Chicago to Havre, they booked me into the Portland sleeper. Does that mean that the statistic of my ride was credited to the Portland section of the train?

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I believe both the Seattle and Portland sections are both considered the Empire Builder so it's a moot point. The fact that the Sunset Limited and Texas Eagle are different trains make it more important.

west point said:

The allocating of the Sunset and Eagle west of SAS by how booked can be easily altered. Just change how the reservation system presents availability. Which train shows first ? train #1 or train # 21 for example ? Which train do you want to show better ridership ?.

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The Sunset. They show the lowest or second lowest depending on the time frame but I'm sure if you include the SAS to LAX passengers from the Texas Eagle the SL numbers look way better.

It does seem weird you have two different trains merging into one. Technically the Boston and New York to Chicago trains are both considered the LSL even though they kind of are two separate trains in theory east of Albany. Maybe the SL and TE should be considered the SL and TE merging and splitting at SAS. Assuming the SL never goes back to Florida, you can just say the SL from NO to SAS is considered the New Orleans wing of the TE then.

If Amtrak is absolutely certain they will never run the SL east of NOL, maybe a better idea would be to just run the Crescent to SAS along the SL route and just call the SAS to LAX segment of the TE the TE. Then just run the full TE daily and then the Crescent from NYP to SAS would also be daily.

You can either run the Crescent straight through to SAS with a minimal layover in NOL but then there would be a huge gap in SOS to get on the TE and you now have forced the old SL passengers from NOL to SAS to layover there when they now can go straight through. Or you can have the Crescent have a long overnight layover in NOL each way before continuing east or west. I'm sure you can play around with the Crescent and Texas Eagle to minimize the delays.

Philly Amtrak Fan said:

If Amtrak is absolutely certain they will never run the SL east of NOL, maybe a better idea would be to just run the Crescent to SAS along the SL route and just call the SAS to LAX segment of the TE the TE. Then just run the full TE daily and then the Crescent from NYP to SAS would also be daily.

You can either run the Crescent straight through to SAS with a minimal layover in NOL but then there would be a huge gap in SOS to get on the TE and you now have forced the old SL passengers from NOL to SAS to layover there when they now can go straight through. Or you can have the Crescent have a long overnight layover in NOL each way before continuing east or west. I'm sure you can play around with the Crescent and Texas Eagle to minimize the delays.

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Probably you should be posting here:

http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/64510-news-on-the-daily-sunset-and-possible-sl-east/?hl=%2Bsunset+%2Blimited

This subject has been well thrashed on that thread.

(I'd add my notion that the proposed Shuttle New Orleans-San Antonio is one place where rehabbed Horizon cars could work well.)

WoodyinNYC said:

Philly Amtrak Fan said:

If Amtrak is absolutely certain they will never run the SL east of NOL, maybe a better idea would be to just run the Crescent to SAS along the SL route and just call the SAS to LAX segment of the TE the TE. Then just run the full TE daily and then the Crescent from NYP to SAS would also be daily.

You can either run the Crescent straight through to SAS with a minimal layover in NOL but then there would be a huge gap in SOS to get on the TE and you now have forced the old SL passengers from NOL to SAS to layover there when they now can go straight through. Or you can have the Crescent have a long overnight layover in NOL each way before continuing east or west. I'm sure you can play around with the Crescent and Texas Eagle to minimize the delays.

Click to expand...

Probably you should be posting here:

http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/64510-news-on-the-daily-sunset-and-possible-sl-east/?hl=%2Bsunset+%2Blimited

This subject has been well thrashed on that thread.

(I'd add my notion that the proposed Shuttle New Orleans-San Antonio is one place where rehabbed Horizon cars could work well.)

Click to expand...

For those interested in my schedule proposal, http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/65927-proposal-for-extending-crescent-to-sas-and-improving-texas-eagle-schedule-connection/

Long Distance Sleeper demand in August was less than 1% ahead of last year.

Sleeper ticket revenues were 7% below last year.

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Having just completed a RT on the Capitol Limited where just about the only sleeping car amenity left to cut would be the diner, I was curious how sleeper metrics are doing.

Now I know that drawing conclusions regarding cause and effect based on time series data like this is a dubious proposition. But I can't help but wonder whether the savings from cutting back on things like coffee and ice exceeded the 7% drop in sleeper revenue. Amtrak could eliminate mattresses and complaining would be useless as long as sleeper revenue continued to rise. But as Diagrua has been known to say, sooner or later something gotta give.

Certainly you could cut back sleeping car amenities further. Privacy is overrated anyway. Simply take out the walls and convert the sleeping space into an open environment of bunk beds. Bags to be stored under the lower bunk.

Imagine the extra passengers each refurbished car could now accommodate and the savings.

The motto for these new sleeping cars: "An Amtrak Sleeper: just like Summer Camp!" :giggle:

Philly Amtrak Fan said:

WoodyinNYC said:

Philly Amtrak Fan said:

If Amtrak is absolutely certain they will never run the SL east of NOL...

Click to expand...

Probably you should be posting here:

http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/64510-news-on-the-daily-sunset-and-possible-sl-east/?hl=%2Bsunset+%2Blimited

This subject has been well thrashed on that thread.

(I'd add my notion that the proposed Shuttle New Orleans-San Antonio is one place where rehabbed Horizon cars could work well.)

Click to expand...

For those interested in my schedule proposal, http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/65927-proposal-for-extending-crescent-to-sas-and-improving-texas-eagle-schedule-connection/

Click to expand...

Not playing games with you, but you should commit this study to memory.

I think Amtrak is committed to doing a version of this plan.

http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/970/304/PRIIA-210-SunsetLtd-TexasEagle-PIP,0.pdf

Of course, that plan was drawn up more than 5 years ago. Meanwhile there hasn't been enuff equipment, or enuff room in the budget, or not enuff something to make the desired improvements. Still, on the basics I'd expect little to change from the PRIIA study proposals.

One difference from the PRIIA study is that we know the bi-levels will displace the Horizons starting in 2017. Those cars need upgrading, but they have many years of life. My speculation is that some would serve well on the Shuttle New Orleans-San Antonio. (Winter weather was hard for the Horizons to deal with, but that would not be a big problem on the Gulf Coast.) But nobody has said a thing.

Normally I would say that Amtrak wouldn't assign single-levels to stations with low-level platforms which are currently operated with bilevels, because it's an invitation for ADA lawsuits. But the San Antonio to New Orleans route only has six non-shared stations, none of which has level boarding anyway, and it looks like none of them even have ramp-based boarding (Lafayette might be an exception). Some of the "platforms" are actually below track level. Since access is already completely dependent on lifts, they indeed might put the Horizons there once they are freed from Midwest service.