Silver Star Update

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Anderson

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I'm running brute force checks on the Silver Service for availability right now. The short version is that the Star is regularly sold out RGH-DLD right now (and is selling out a lot more than the Meteor WAS-DLD). Now, it seems that there's a wacky game afoot with the buckets for the Star are massively lower than those on the Meteor.

ORL-WAS I find the following roomette buckets for each train (coach prices unchanged):

Bucket Star Meteor
(1) $159 $277
(2) $188 $371
(3) $221 $470
(4) $553With the coach fare ($123) added, this gives:
Code:
Bucket  Star  Meteor
(1)     $282  $400
(2)     $311  $494
(3)     $344  $593
(4)           $676
What this tells me is that there may be a concerted effort on the part of management to grossly underprice the Star, but I'm not sure what the game is. The differential is massive (the Star is always the cheaper of the two by at least $56, and on some days you're looking at over $330 more for the Meteor). The way I see it, management is doing one of three things:
(1) They're sandbagging the Star's sleeper revenue. This would sabotage the diner-free experiment because frankly, the train could run slam full and still bring in less revenue (e.g. "We lost more in reduced revenue than we saved by cutting the diner!").
(2) They're spiking the Star's ridership numbers. This is the opposite of #1, since showing a massive swell in ridership amid the experiment would seem to validate it (e.g. "A cheaper sleeper product can sell a huge amount of space! Give us more sleepers!").
(3) They panicked at the mass of cancellations and overcompensated with lower fares. I heard rumblings of "thousands" of cancellations in response to the diner cut, so it is quite possible that someone slammed the "PANIC" button and dropped fares even further to prevent a massive loss of ridership.
I really can't decide between the three explanations (I frankly lean towards #1). As it stands, if what's showing on Amsnag pans out it seems like the Star could add quite a few riders but lose enough in revenue that the diner removal still shows as a "failure".
 
Nice analysis Cliff! Maybe all 3 are true??!!!

Another factor is the OBS bidding off the Star, one of the Best SCAs in Amtrak now only works the Meteor and I'm sure others with the Seniority have done the same! ( as I've said, who would want to work or ride the Star from MIA-NYP without a Diner, especially passengers that use AGR Points???!!!!)

In a way this expierement is a return to Slumber Coach days , albiet @ Higher Prices, without a Diner!!

I know one of our members is going to use the Star WAS-Florida during the Gathering, I,'m looking forward to other members reports that try it out!
 
Jim--

An anecdote to add to your observations above. I ran into one of the terrific SCAs (I will not name him for his own protection) when it stopped in TRE during my commuting change, way before the experiment started. He told me the OBS were not happy about losing the dining car, and to write a letter to bring back it back (unfortunately the train had to get going, so no time to ask him who to write to), and he also said he was going to try to switch to the Meteor.
 
All evidence from the air travel world is that price rules the decision process. People will whine and complain about lack of service, but then will knowingly buy the lowest price option regardless of the service offered. How many times on this board have we seen calls for the return of the Slumbercoach? Isn't this Silver Star sleeper experiment really like a Slumbercoach - just a room with minimal frills?

Except for a few markets, anyone traveling between the northeast and Florida has a choice between a full-service option and a lower-cost, no-frills option. Evidence seems to suggest the no-frills option is winning.
 
What is the sleeper subsidy for a diner? Could the price difference simply be that subsidy?
 
Bill: you are correct but Plane trips only last a few Hours ( International Flights still feed you). 30+ Hours without a Diner on a Sold Our Train and only a Cafe, with one OBS to service it, seems like a poor idea!

As I said, I'm a big advocate for Slumber Coaches and affordable options, but having a Diner available for those that want to pay for sit down meals seems a better way to roll.
 
As I said, I'm a big advocate for Slumber Coaches and affordable options, but having a Diner available for those that want to pay for sit down meals seems a better way to roll.
I have to agree. It would be nice for there to have been still be a diner, where I could make a reservation, have a nice sit-down meal, and spend (some? most?) of the sleeper fare savings.
 
Bearing in mind that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one, I incline toward PRR60 and Karl's thoughts.

Why attribute dark manipulative activity to the ne'er-do-well Amtrak management? Because it's fun!! :) This is what we do here when there is little or no fact to go on. Imagine what we could do second guessing BP Petroleum! :giggle:
 
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Oddly enough in most matters Amtrak management is presented here as at least borderline if not totally incompetent, and yet when it comes to manipulation as theorized here they seem to become doyens of efficiency! Is that a realistic and believable position? I think not.

BTW Jim, even on 15 hour intercontinental flights people almost always tend to choose the lowest fare even if it involves 10 abreast on 777 with 30" pitch! So I believe in general lower fare will always win out as PRR said, no matter how long the trip.

People will bring their mini fridges and micro microwaves :) along if necessary, but almost no one will pass up on a bargain!
 
Well, remember they took out a sleeper, too. So now, instead of running with two Viewliners, they're only running with one. So, the sellouts are MUCH more abundant.

From where I am on the East Coast, I would probably LOVE to ride a bargain Star for access to a shower. BUT, I would also be willing to pay FULL price for dinner in the Diner. Since I usually travel alone, it'd still save off the 2-pax food surcharge included in the typical sleeper fare.

But alas, the 1 AM NB and 4 AM SB calling times of the Star in Savannah really suck, so I'll be much more inclined to enjoy the Meteor. With AGR points, of course!
 
Well, remember they took out a sleeper, too. So now, instead of running with two Viewliners, they're only running with one. So, the sellouts are MUCH more abundant.

From where I am on the East Coast, I would probably LOVE to ride a bargain Star for access to a shower. BUT, I would also be willing to pay FULL price for dinner in the Diner. Since I usually travel alone, it'd still save off the 2-pax food surcharge included in the typical sleeper fare.

But alas, the 1 AM NB and 4 AM SB calling times of the Star in Savannah really suck, so I'll be much more inclined to enjoy the Meteor. With AGR points, of course!
Did they? I was still counting two sleepers when I rode it over the 4th. I'd have something for you on the Star today, but the train is running stupidly late and I think I'm going to be on the Carolinian instead (sigh).

FWIW, I'm basing my thoughts here on three points:

(1) IIRC fare cut was initially supposed to be a lot smaller (I'm thinking less than $100 off a one-way fare; I think I heard they were shooting for about $65 off of Florida to the NEC, which would roughly correspond to 3-4 meals for a single passenger). The slashing has been based on that to begin with, but it seems to have wound up a heck of a lot larger.

(2) There are only four buckets in use on the Meteor and three on the Star. The price difference between buckets on the Star is way below normal (about 20-25% versus the usual variations of around 100%) and there are usually five buckets per train on the sleeper side (four in coach, with the "fifth" being the "discount" bucket which doesn't tend to count against the fare differential limits). The Meteor "should" have a cheaper bucket at the bottom ($400 for the cheapest room on the Meteor is rather high) and the Star "should" have a higher top bucket (or two), suggesting that someone is purposefully not programming those into the system.

(3) At least one of Amtrak's people seemed to be giving off a dog whistle to NARP of "please take this train and then call in to complain".
 
jis,

Thanks. I was pretty sure that hadn't panned out but I wanted to be sure.

One other thought: Just because I think management is trying to be slick doesn't mean I think they're being smart about it...
 
All evidence from the air travel world is that price rules the decision process. People will whine and complain about lack of service, but then will knowingly buy the lowest price option regardless of the service offered.
The airlines may claim that nobody is willing to pay more but in many cases they either ignore or gloss over pitch during the booking process and the only options they provide are cheap cramped seats, double cost coach seats with slightly improved legroom, or triple cost seats up front. Double cost may not sound like much but on the flights where it truly matters that option can add another thousand dollars or more. Does that sound like a simple buy-up choice to you?

Programs such as MRTC that ran counter to this assumption were poorly advertised and were quickly reversed before a new purchasing trend could develop. Pre-approved business class has been dropped from many corporate policies without being replaced with a formal Y+ policy. Meanwhile those of us who are likely to pay up for Y+ out of pocket are often stuck with expensive middle seats due to everything else having already been reserved by hoards of first and second tier repeats.

BTW Jim, even on 15 hour intercontinental flights people almost always tend to choose the lowest fare even if it involves 10 abreast on 777 with 30" pitch! So I believe in general lower fare will always win out as PRR said, no matter how long the trip. People will bring their mini fridges and micro microwaves :) along if necessary, but almost no one will pass up on a bargain!
In my experience most travelers have no clue what the pitch is before they board. The first time I ever noticed a booking page drawing any sort of attention to legroom in coach was on Google Flights a couple months ago, and even then they're only referring to the nonstandard self-reported seat pitch that leaves most of the story to the imagination. By the time you find out if it's enough room for your body type it's too late.

So maybe you put a bit more effort into your next flight and pick another carrier only to get stuck with the same room even though the pitch is reported as larger. So maybe you spend hours reading up on seat designs and aircraft routes and you pick yet another carrier with an actual improvement in seat room. Unfortunately between the time you ticketed and flew the route your the airline unilaterally modified their pitch and/or seats and/or aircraft on that route without any requirement to notify you ahead of time.

Casual customers are generally blind to the decisions that put them in a lousy seat. Nearly every major airport I've visited had some sort of luggage size checker but not even a single airport I've visited has ever had a coach seat checker to make sure your own body will fit comfortably with today's perpetually decreasing width and pitch before boarding. So how are people supposed to make informed decisions on what is right for them?

Even if casual consumers were aware of the options they'd often be faced with paying double the cost for a generic coach seat with slightly better room or triple the cost up front. Here we are blaming the customer for not choosing better seats even though we don't provide any easy tools or useful information for doing so. Kind of like blaming the customer for being suckered into a bait and switch.
 
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I cannot understand how Amtrak management would be able to figure out what the price point without food is where there is no loss in ridership without varying the price points over this period. Figuring that out is important to be able to show that the net loss in revenue is more than the losses in Diner service or not.

So while we can ***** and moan all we like based on our inflated idea of our skills in price demand elasticity management, to me what they are doing sounds very rational, I don't see much evidence of ulterior motives.
 
I don't disagree with Bill and jis, people like bargains including me!

But my point is why would you work or ride the Star for 30 Hours when there is No Diner,( especially using AGR Points!!!) just a Cafe for a full train that will probably run out of stuff in the middle of the trip?

As I said, I love the idea ofSlumber Coaches and would ride the Star on a bargain Sleeper Fare IF there was the option to have a Paid meal or two in the Diner!

Why not give the customers a Choice by having the Diner for those that want to pay full fare including meals and those that want the discounted Sleeper Price that would pay for their food and beverages or turn the Star into the new Chicken Bone Express?

Wouldn't that be a better comparison with the Meteor, you would have compatable and better data for your study and not be comparing apples to oranges, even if most people will usually take the best deal they can get on transportation fares!

Win/Win! No matter what Amtrak Managements intention is for this scheme! YMMV.
 
Why not give the customers a Choice by having the Diner for those that want to pay full fare including meals and those that want the discounted Sleeper Price that would pay for their food and beverages or turn the Star into the new Chicken Bone Express?
That is too easy and logical of a choice that could be made without years of multiple studies, experiments and committees. Hence it will probably never happen. :unsure: :huh: :)
 
Add to this the fact that two or three of the Heritage Diners are past a major overhaul point that would cost a lot to keep running another few months and you start seeing the logic for removing the need for four Diners from the available pool.

Now if the new Diners don't start showing up by January they will be in a bit of a soup.
 
I wonder if they are constantly sold out, they added ANOTHER sleeper on, AND they added the diner back as cash only what the results would be.
 
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Inspired by Anderson's analysis, I did a similar one. My Amsnag searches covered the 22 Jul 2015 through 31 Jan 2016 period for the Silver Star & Meteor but, unlike Anderson's, the end points were NYP and MIA. The different Coach and Roomette fares for each train during this period are shown below. The lowest and highest total fares during that period are also shown as well as the price difference between the roomette buckets. Note that it is possible to pay $9 more for a roomette on the Silver Star but probably on a different date of travel.

STAR METEOR ROOMETTE

COACH ROOMETTE COACH ROOMETTE DIFFERENCE

144 168 144 292 124

189 199 189 391 192

246 234 246 496 262

320 301 320 584 283

312 & 554 <LOW & HIGH TOTAL FARES> 436 & 830

Please don't be tricked into thinking the high coach and high roomette buckets occur on the same date(s) as some of the low ones can. I've saved all sixteen Amsnag searches done this morning. If anybody wants to go blind noodling with the numbers, If so, PM me know and I'll send them your way. There were seven dates during this period for which Amsnag (for some unknown reason) did not respond with any fares and I have no idea if inclusion of that missing data would change anything.

Cheers
 
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Thanks niemi24s.

I am intrigued that coach between the Star and the Meteor are the same (equivalent). Kind of, at least to my way of thinking, makes the roomette fare differences all attributable to Diner Food (or the lack thereof).
 
If I was traveling in Coach and the train had no proper Diner, I sure would not want to pay the same fare as for a train that does carry full food service.
 
I have no idea what the ultimate goal is on the dining service. I don't care how low the fares go, we will not travel on an overnight train without dining car service. The only exception has been our occasional trip on the Cardinal. While the train has an abbreviated menu at least you can be served and sit down at a table albeit one with a paper table cover.

We always opt for the highest level of bedroom service when we travel long distance. Amtrak will soon discover that for the prices travelers pay they cannot run their operation like New Jersey transit and expect the road to profitability. BTW, NJ Transit with its barebones commuter service, still loses money. I believe that NJ Transit is funded to the tune of $300 million per year. IIRC that's 25% of the entire federal funding budget of the nationwide Amtrak system.
 
Bill: you are correct but Plane trips only last a few Hours ( International Flights still feed you). 30+ Hours without a Diner on a Sold Our Train and only a Cafe, with one OBS to service it, seems like a poor idea!
~52% of Silver Star sleeper passengers, and ~86% of all Silver Star passengers, travel less than 1,000 miles (~20 hours). Only 6% of sleeper passengers, and 2% of all passengers, ride it for the full 30+ hour duration. That's plenty bearable, especially if you're asleep for much of it.
 
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