In the short term, the clear winner is the card that offers the bonus most useful to you.
If you have a use for Ultimate Rewards points, that would likely be the Sapphire Reserve card. Since AGR is not a transfer partner for UR, and you don't fly, your transfer options appear to be Hyatt Gold Passport, IHG Rewards Club, Marriott Rewards, and Ritz-Carlton Rewards. You can also use UR points to book travel at the UR web site. If used there (and they can be used for hotels and car rentals, as well as activities, whatever those may be), points are worth 1.5¢ each. Thus, for your $450 annual fee and $4,000 spend in three months, you get $300 back (if you booked at least $300 in travel expenses) plus 100,000 UR points plus whatever points you get for the $4,000 spend. For a net cost of $150, you get points worth at least $1,500—if you can use them usefully at the UR web site.
I understand, but could be wrong, that you can redeem UR points as a credit on your bill. In this case, I believe the points are worth 1¢ each, but you can redeem them for anything you can put on your bill. If I'm right, then you could redeem your bonus points for a $1,000 credit on your bill. Not bad for a $450 card that already reimburses $300 in travel expenses.
I hope that helped.