A doomsday scenario

I have just joined this group and figured that I should get in with both feet, so to speak, so here it goes.

Imagine some time in the near future that Congress and the President decide that the time has come to defund Amtrak except for funding to the Northeast Corridor that would be matched by the states. What, if anything could survive?

1. Would portions of the western long distance trains survive to become seasonal Rocky Mountaineer type of operations?

2. Would the eastern long distance trains be reduced to daytime coach only trains like the Palmetto, or be cut back to short haul corridor type service?

3. Could Auto Train revert back to private operation with a Disney/Marriott consortium running it?

4. The Hoosier State fiasco notwithstanding, would the states that support regional passenger rail service see this as an opportunity to find a lower cost way of providing that service through Iowa Pacific or someone else?

5. Regarding the NEC, would Amtrak be forced to give up the corridor to a network rail style of infrastructure firm and be content to run the trains, or retain the NEC and give up the trains to someone else to run?

6. If it proves to be a roaring success ( a pretty sizeable if ) could FEC's All Aboard Florida , as well as the Texas Central plan, be potential models for other rail entrepreneurs?

I thank you for the chance to post this and I look forward to the responses.

I have little knowledge on the true working of this but from what I have read elsewhere when Amtrak was formed it relieved the Class 1s of their Common Carrier clause to haul passenger trains. Allegedly this clause still stands so even though it may be hard to believe but the freight railroads would then be forced to carry passengers. I expect to be attacked on this statement but with little knowledge I have on the topic that is what I have gathered.

Point 3: The original Auto Train Corporation went bankrupt for many reasons, most of which would still apply. So Disney et. al. would not make money on it, and money is what they're interested in. If those companies bought it as a loss leader to encourage Florida travel, I guess this could save the Auto Train. However, the lion's share of Auto Train's business consists of retired snowbirds, and these are most of the regular repeat riders. If those folks don't go to the attractions, there's no incentive for the attraction owners to serve their needs for limited or nonexistent patronage of the parks.The Disney/Universal Studios/Sea World tourists are an important part of the Auto Train's clientele, but not the biggest part. So the question is whether it would be worth it to these potential new owners. I'm guessing that the answer would be a resounding "NO".

Point 4: No reason I know to think this new situation would cost the States any less than current costs.

Point 6: Success: Maybe. Roaring success: Maybe. Profitable? Not so much.

I won't even attempt to address your other points. Maybe somebody else can.

Tom

cuppb001 said:

I have little knowledge on the true working of this but from what I have read elsewhere when Amtrak was formed it relieved the Class 1s of their Common Carrier clause to haul passenger trains. Allegedly this clause still stands so even though it may be hard to believe but the freight railroads would then be forced to carry passengers. I expect to be attacked on this statement but with little knowledge I have on the topic that is what I have gathered.

Click to expand...

That clause expired after 20 years, as far as I know.

Alex M. said:

I have just joined this group and figured that I should get in with both feet, so to speak, so here it goes.

Imagine some time in the near future that Congress and the President decide that the time has come to defund Amtrak except for funding to the Northeast Corridor that would be matched by the states. What, if anything could survive?

1. Would portions of the western long distance trains survive to become seasonal Rocky Mountaineer type of operations?

2. Would the eastern long distance trains be reduced to daytime coach only trains like the Palmetto, or be cut back to short haul corridor type service?

3. Could Auto Train revert back to private operation with a Disney/Marriott consortium running it?

4. The Hoosier State fiasco notwithstanding, would the states that support regional passenger rail service see this as an opportunity to find a lower cost way of providing that service through Iowa Pacific or someone else?

5. Regarding the NEC, would Amtrak be forced to give up the corridor to a network rail style of infrastructure firm and be content to run the trains, or retain the NEC and give up the trains to someone else to run?

6. If it proves to be a roaring success ( a pretty sizeable if ) could FEC's All Aboard Florida , as well as the Texas Central plan, be potential models for other rail entrepreneurs?

I thank you for the chance to post this and I look forward to the responses.

Click to expand...

1. Possible.2. If Amtrak was gone, who would operate these trains? Individual states. coalition of states, private operators? Anything is possible.

3. Doubt it. Auto Train patronage would make up only a small percentage of theme park attendance, hotel occupancy Not worth it for these companies.

4. Sure, why not?

5. Either one could happen.

6. Sure, why not?

The topic is pretty board and the future unsure, so just about anything could happen. Without Amtrak, freight railroads could just say we don't want any passenger trains messing up our operations. Maybe some entrepanuers could buy routes and run for-profit passenger trains.

A national network would disappear, with some isolated commuter/regional operations.

Besides the vanishing of the national network of passenger trains, the freight railroads will insist on whoever operates what route to pay the full access fee and provide adequate insurance. Congress might assist the railroads with a tax credit to sweeten the deal, as it were.

Alex M. said:

I have just joined this group and figured that I should get in with both feet, so to speak, so here it goes.

Imagine some time in the near future that Congress and the President decide that the time has come to defund Amtrak except for funding to the Northeast Corridor that would be matched by the states. What, if anything could survive?

2. Would the eastern long distance trains be reduced to daytime coach only trains like the Palmetto, or be cut back to short haul corridor type service?

3. Could Auto Train revert back to private operation with a Disney/Marriott consortium running it?

4. The Hoosier State fiasco notwithstanding, would the states that support regional passenger rail service see this as an opportunity to find a lower cost way of providing that service through Iowa Pacific or someone else?

5. Regarding the NEC, would Amtrak be forced to give up the corridor to a network rail style of infrastructure firm and be content to run the trains, or retain the NEC and give up the trains to someone else to run?

Click to expand...

With regards to your full doomsday scenario, I think the odds of that happening now are extremely remote. The House just passed a re-authorization act that provides for funding and continuing operation of the LD trains and for the NEC, access to circa $14 billion in FRA RIFF loans for financing. If the LD trains were ever going to be dropped or killed by Congress, it would be with this House and Senate. It didn't happen, the PRRIA act got through the House without that much difficultly and Amtrak easily survived the attempt by the Tea party types to defund it.

For the NEC, the RIFF loans would be debt financing, of course, but it would still give Amtrak access to funds, that in combination with increased payments from the NEC states and the operating surplus revenue stream from the Acela and NE Regionals. What could still happen with the NEC would be to turn over the portions of the NEC that Amtrak owns to an NEC Authority, which would be structured like a port or airport authority, chartered to maintain and modernize the NEC for all the operators on the NEC,

As for the Hoosier State "fiasco", it appears that a deal has been struck to keep the train operating for at least a couple more years. Once the state settles into providing annual operating subsidies with contracts to Iowa Pacific and Amtrak to run the HS, I think it won't be too much of a step for the state to start providing, albeit in small amounts, funds for capital improvement projects on the corridor. The Heartland Flyer may be the only current state supported train that is currently at risk, Gov. Rauner's budget in IL notwithstanding.