Notes from WisARP Meeting

I attended the Fall WisARP meeting today in Milwaukee. Here are a few items that were mentioned that might be of interest to some:

The WI Secy of Transp Mark Gottlieb spoke, and he stated that the construction of the trainshed/platform at MKE should begin "this fall" - it had been expected to begin this last summer, but delays due to difficulty with CP put it back a few months. He expected the improvements to be completed in Winter 2015-2016. I could not get much more information from him, regarding specific platform configurations or whatnot, though.

Gottlieb mentioned that the Environmental Assessment for CHI-MKE improvements (higher speeds, faster travel times, 10 R/Ts) should be completed in Spring 2015. That is a WisDOT-led project. The MnDOT-led study of an additional CHI-MSP train should be finished this winter (2014-2015), and has estimated ridership in the 118,000-156,000 range depending upon the specifics. The additional round trip, which will likely require at least some infrastructure improvements (new or extended sidings, etc.), would likely depart CHI in the morning and MSP in the afternoon.

Gottlieb also stated that it was "a good possibility" that additional bilevel cars would be ordered to re-equip (or, I suppose, augment existing equipment on) the Hiawathas, but there was nothing concrete that he could relate at this point.

We also had the privilege of listening to a rambling, anti-Joe Boardman diatribe from Don Phillips. Early on, Phillips claimed that he has information that cuts have caused Auto Train ridership to drop 20% (which, best as I can tell, is not backed up by any available information). After that point, I didn't listen all that closely to the rest of his speech.

Eric S said:

That is a WisDOT-led project. The MnDOT-led study of an additional CHI-MSP train should be finished this winter (2014-2015), and has estimated ridership in the 118,000-156,000 range depending upon the specifics. The additional round trip, which will likely require at least some infrastructure improvements (new or extended sidings, etc.), would likely depart CHI in the morning and MSP in the afternoon.

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About 20% of Empire Builder's current ridership and somewhat more than a doubling of current ridership on that segment (trebling if we assume high end ridership projection and low end current ridership estimate).

We also had the privilege of listening to a rambling, anti-Joe Boardman diatribe from Don Phillips. Early on, Phillips claimed that he has information that cuts have caused Auto Train ridership to drop 20% (which, best as I can tell, is not backed up by any available information). After that point, I didn't listen all that closely to the rest of his speech.

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Ludicrously wrong, even sleeper ridership is up.

Eric S said:

Gottlieb also stated that it was "a good possibility" that additional bilevel cars would be ordered to re-equip (or, I suppose, augment existing equipment on) the Hiawathas, but there was nothing concrete that he could relate at this point.

We also had the privilege of listening to a rambling, anti-Joe Boardman diatribe from Don Phillips. Early on, Phillips claimed that he has information that cuts have caused Auto Train ridership to drop 20% (which, best as I can tell, is not backed up by any available information). After that point, I didn't listen all that closely to the rest of his speech.

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I expect Gottlieb is referring to the 34 additional corridor bi-level cars that the FRA and other sources have stated outright are to be ordered for the Midwest. The money is there, since the Nippon-Sharyo bid came in well under the amount set aside for the CA and Midwest order. Since he is the State Secretary of Transportation, he likely is just being careful in how he discusses the plans for the equipment order as the add-on order contract has presumably been not been signed yet. When it is, there will be a flurry of press releases about it.

But I regard this as confirmation that the plans is for WI and the Hiawatha service to join in with the other Midwest states and replace the Horizons with the new corridor bi-level cars. And the Talgo mess won't be mentioned when they have a press event in a few years showing off the new bi-level cars on their first Hiawatha run.

As for Mr, Philips, the only LD train that has a ridership drop over 10% for the FY to date is the EB (down -15.8% as of August) and that drop is due to circumstances clearly beyond Amtrak's control. The AutoTrain is the bright spot for the LD trains in the August 2014 monthly report. Total ridership up +3.3% for the first 11 months of FY14, up +6.7% for August, and sleeper ridership was up +7.7% for August as well. Yes, not everyone is happy about the changes and service cuts for the AutoTrain, especially the silly & petty cuts, but so far, the AutoTrain is doing fine. And coming very close to covering its fully allocated operating costs, including all the overhead. Did Boardman kick Mr. Phillips dog or something like that?

Eric S said:

I attended the Fall WisARP meeting today in Milwaukee. Here are a few items that were mentioned that might be of interest to some:

[snip]

We also had the privilege of listening to a rambling, anti-Joe Boardman diatribe from Don Phillips. Early on, Phillips claimed that he has information that cuts have caused Auto Train ridership to drop 20% (which, best as I can tell, is not backed up by any available information). After that point, I didn't listen all that closely to the rest of his speech.

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He lost me when he claimed that Amtrak is thisclose to bankruptcy. Having issues with someone's management style is a matter of opinion, but asserting that Amtrak is nearly bankrupt is a factual claim, and intimating that it's in worse financial shape now than in the days of (say) Reagan's zero-budget or Warrington's "glide path to self-sufficiency" is absurd.

Don Phillips is like the common cold, he never goes away and nothing can stop him from his " mission" of knocking Amtrak and Joe Boardman! If he doesn't have facts he just makes stuff up!

Gene Poon on train orders is another one in the same vein!

John Bredin said:

Eric S said:

I attended the Fall WisARP meeting today in Milwaukee. Here are a few items that were mentioned that might be of interest to some:

[snip]

We also had the privilege of listening to a rambling, anti-Joe Boardman diatribe from Don Phillips. Early on, Phillips claimed that he has information that cuts have caused Auto Train ridership to drop 20% (which, best as I can tell, is not backed up by any available information). After that point, I didn't listen all that closely to the rest of his speech.

Click to expand...

He lost me when he claimed that Amtrak is thisclose to bankruptcy. Having issues with someone's management style is a matter of opinion, but asserting that Amtrak is nearly bankrupt is a factual claim, and intimating that it's in worse financial shape now than in the days of (say) Reagan's zero-budget or Warrington's "glide path to self-sufficiency" is absurd.

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That's right - I had forgotten he claimed Amtrak would be bankrupt in (I think) 2ish years.

Paulus said:

Eric S said:

That is a WisDOT-led project. The MnDOT-led study of an additional CHI-MSP train should be finished this winter (2014-2015), and has estimated ridership in the 118,000-156,000 range depending upon the specifics. The additional round trip, which will likely require at least some infrastructure improvements (new or extended sidings, etc.), would likely depart CHI in the morning and MSP in the afternoon.

Click to expand...

About 20% of Empire Builder's current ridership and somewhat more than a doubling of current ridership on that segment (trebling if we assume high end ridership projection and low end current ridership estimate).

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Seems about right. To be fair, it'll probably cause ridership to drop on that segment on the eastbound (i.e. never-on-time) Empire Builder.

afigg said:

Eric S said:

Gottlieb also stated that it was "a good possibility" that additional bilevel cars would be ordered to re-equip (or, I suppose, augment existing equipment on) the Hiawathas, but there was nothing concrete that he could relate at this point.

Click to expand...

I expect Gottlieb is referring to the 34 additional corridor bi-level cars that the FRA and other sources have stated outright are to be ordered for the Midwest. The money is there, since the Nippon-Sharyo bid came in well under the amount set aside for the CA and Midwest order. Since he is the State Secretary of Transportation, he likely is just being careful in how he discusses the plans for the equipment order as the add-on order contract has presumably been not been signed yet. When it is, there will be a flurry of press releases about it.

Click to expand...

There's another aspect to this: Wisconsin has to negotiate with Illinois. The Hiawathas are partly paid for by Illinois, but mostly by Wisconsin. Wisconsin has no rights to exercise the option on the bilevel car contract, or to use the "excess" ARRA money for that -- only Illnois, Missouri, Michigan, and California do. So Wisconsin has to complete negotiations with Illinois in order to use the new cars.
The Illinois administration has no particular love for the disastrous administration currently running Wisconsin and is likely to strike a hard bargain, rather than a "goodwill" deal.

Eric S said:

We also had the privilege of listening to a rambling, anti-Joe Boardman diatribe from Don Phillips. Early on, Phillips claimed that he has information that cuts have caused Auto Train ridership to drop 20% (which, best as I can tell, is not backed up by any available information). After that point, I didn't listen all that closely to the rest of his speech.

Click to expand...

After reading many of his columns and sitting through several of his talks, I have arrived at the conclusion that he is not particularly good with facts or arithmetic. but he is very good at spinning a good yarn, and I enjoy his stuff from that angle. He certainly appears to a personal vendetta against Boardman, and that shows through at every turn. So I don't take anything that he says about Amtrak too seriously as even a believable news, until I have had it verified from an independent source. But then his job is to sell more Trains Mags, and I suppose his approach satisfies that agenda well too. All this just IMHO of course.
And yes, I am still waiting with bated breath to see Amtrak go bankrupt and shut down, something that he predicted now more than two years back AFAICT.

If the good citizens of Wisconsin and Indiana would elect different office holders the prospects for Amtrak and other forms of rail in their states would be 1000% better!

As they say in Chicago, Vote early and often!!!

neroden said:

afigg said:

Eric S said:

Gottlieb also stated that it was "a good possibility" that additional bilevel cars would be ordered to re-equip (or, I suppose, augment existing equipment on) the Hiawathas, but there was nothing concrete that he could relate at this point.

Click to expand...

I expect Gottlieb is referring to the 34 additional corridor bi-level cars that the FRA and other sources have stated outright are to be ordered for the Midwest. The money is there, since the Nippon-Sharyo bid came in well under the amount set aside for the CA and Midwest order. Since he is the State Secretary of Transportation, he likely is just being careful in how he discusses the plans for the equipment order as the add-on order contract has presumably been not been signed yet. When it is, there will be a flurry of press releases about it.

Click to expand...

There's another aspect to this: Wisconsin has to negotiate with Illinois. The Hiawathas are partly paid for by Illinois, but mostly by Wisconsin. Wisconsin has no rights to exercise the option on the bilevel car contract, or to use the "excess" ARRA money for that -- only Illnois, Missouri, Michigan, and California do. So Wisconsin has to complete negotiations with Illinois in order to use the new cars.
The Illinois administration has no particular love for the disastrous administration currently running Wisconsin and is likely to strike a hard bargain, rather than a "goodwill" deal.

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Right, it's a 75% WI/25% IL split for the Hiawatha. But it may still be in IL's interest to have new bilevel equipment on the Hiawatha (standardize with other IL-sponsored routes, Amtrak's equipment charges for the Amfleet/Horizons, etc.).

jis said:

Eric S said:

We also had the privilege of listening to a rambling, anti-Joe Boardman diatribe from Don Phillips. Early on, Phillips claimed that he has information that cuts have caused Auto Train ridership to drop 20% (which, best as I can tell, is not backed up by any available information). After that point, I didn't listen all that closely to the rest of his speech.

Click to expand...

After reading many of his columns and sitting through several of his talks, I have arrived at the conclusion that he is not particularly good with facts or arithmetic. but he is very good at spinning a good yarn, and I enjoy his stuff from that angle. He certainly appears to a personal vendetta against Boardman, and that shows through at every turn. So I don't take anything that he says about Amtrak too seriously as even a believable news, until I have had it verified from an independent source. But then his job is to sell more Trains Mags, and I suppose his approach satisfies that agenda well too. All this just IMHO of course.
And yes, I am still waiting with bated breath to see Amtrak go bankrupt and shut down, something that he predicted now more than two years back AFAICT.

Click to expand...

And that's pretty much all he did, "spin a good yarn," rather than actually backing up his claims and accusations. The attendees mostly lapped it up, though, asking all sorts of questions about why Boardman is destroying Amtrak and how to get rid of Boardman and so on.

I didn't realize Philips claimed more than two years ago that Amtrak was on the verge of bankruptcy - perhaps it's always about two years away in his view.

I would not trust my memory about eh exact date when he made said claim. I really don't care to keep careful track of his utterances that closely.

It sounds like I missed nothing -- work prevented me from attending this meeting. Were any members present able to put the Secretary on the spot regarding expansion of passenger train service ?

neroden said:

There's another aspect to this: Wisconsin has to negotiate with Illinois. The Hiawathas are partly paid for by Illinois, but mostly by Wisconsin. Wisconsin has no rights to exercise the option on the bilevel car contract, or to use the "excess" ARRA money for that -- only Illnois, Missouri, Michigan, and California do. So Wisconsin has to complete negotiations with Illinois in order to use the new cars.

The Illinois administration has no particular love for the disastrous administration currently running Wisconsin and is likely to strike a hard bargain, rather than a "goodwill" deal.

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It is to Illinois's benefit to have corridor bi-level cars on the Hiawatha service. The corridor bi-level cars for the Midwest are being paid for with federal money, only CA is providing any significant state contribution. So there is little to no cost to IL to include WI in the expanded order. There would be cost savings in future years in a larger equipment pool and most states to share the maintenance costs. Which would also benefit MO, MI. Besides the FRA is a major player in this because they are providing the money, so it is not be up just to IL.

I suspect there are good political reasons to keep the prospects of the Hiawatha service getting bi-level cars low profile at this time. If it got a lot of press coverage in a heated election campaign, some of Gov. Walker's financial backers or the Tea party leaders in WI might jump up and demand that Walker reject the "choo-choo trains" because they are being brought with federal money from the Obama Administration. Walker might then have to respond to keep his base satisfied.

My impression of Walker is that he really didn't give a damn about the funded extension to Madison one way or the other; he made it canceling it a campaign issue because his political consultants thought it would help with the rural upstate and older voters, to stick it to the Democrats in Madison, and because he is a "car" and highway guy. If he gets re-elected, then WI can quietly sign on to join the Midwest group and get the bi-level cars for the Hiawatha service. If Walker is not re-elected, his Democratic successor will be happy to take the federal money and get the bi-levels.

WICT106 said:

It sounds like I missed nothing -- work prevented me from attending this meeting. Were any members present able to put the Secretary on the spot regarding expansion of passenger train service ?

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Yes, Gottlieb was asked a number of questions about expansion of service to both Madison and Green Bay. To which he repeatedly stated that the priority is improving service on existing corridors (CHI-MKE going to 10x daily and CHI-MKE-MSP going to 2x daily) and that any expansion to new corridors was (to paraphrase his answer) not near- or medium-term but very, very long-term and that the governor and legislature have made it very clear that there they have no interest in expanding outside the existing corridors/services. There was certainly an adversarial feel to the room during his Q&A time, with many questioning WisDOT's policities and priorities regarding highways vs. rail and transit.

afigg said:

neroden said:

There's another aspect to this: Wisconsin has to negotiate with Illinois. The Hiawathas are partly paid for by Illinois, but mostly by Wisconsin. Wisconsin has no rights to exercise the option on the bilevel car contract, or to use the "excess" ARRA money for that -- only Illnois, Missouri, Michigan, and California do. So Wisconsin has to complete negotiations with Illinois in order to use the new cars.

The Illinois administration has no particular love for the disastrous administration currently running Wisconsin and is likely to strike a hard bargain, rather than a "goodwill" deal.

Click to expand...

It is to Illinois's benefit to have corridor bi-level cars on the Hiawatha service. The corridor bi-level cars for the Midwest are being paid for with federal money, only CA is providing any significant state contribution. So there is little to no cost to IL to include WI in the expanded order. There would be cost savings in future years in a larger equipment pool and most states to share the maintenance costs. Which would also benefit MO, MI. Besides the FRA is a major player in this because they are providing the money, so it is not be up just to IL.

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This is another point. Walker's antics have earned him some enemies at the FRA. His administration is NOT going to get a good deal from them.
Will the Hiawathas use the bilevels? Almost certainly. How much will the state of Wisconsin have to *pay* to use the bilevels, though -- that's the question. The state government is going to want to pay as little as possible; Illinois and the FRA will want them to pay full price covering depreciation.

The negotiations could take a while. (Or, a Democratic replacement for Walker could find herself with much friendlier people on the other side of the table and it could be settled very quickly.)

Gottlieb did mention that recently (and I didn't take great notes on this, so it's based on my memory) FRA mentioned three intercity passenger rail projects/studies underway as positive examples, one of which was the WisDOT-led and -funded CHI-MKE study. Now, it could certainly just be spin (or BS), but he made it a point to stress that relations between WisDOT and FRA/USDOT (in the passenger rail area) are not rocky and that both sides see CHI-MKE as one area for cooperation going forward (notwithstanding the mess surrounding MKE-MSN and Talgo in the past).

Even a Burke-led WI could find it difficult to come up with significant funds for the bilevels (given the likely makeup of the legislature). Adding WI to the Midwest state group (IL, MI, MO) is likely to be beneficial to the other states (larger equipment pool and such), even if fully federally-funded, by making it more likely that WI will continue planning (using state funds) CHI-MKE improvements and at least coordinating with, if not actually funding at this time, MN on an additional CHI-MSP train.

neroden said:

This is another point. Walker's antics have earned him some enemies at the FRA. His administration is NOT going to get a good deal from them.

Will the Hiawathas use the bilevels? Almost certainly. How much will the state of Wisconsin have to *pay* to use the bilevels, though -- that's the question. The state government is going to want to pay as little as possible; Illinois and the FRA will want them to pay full price covering depreciation.

The negotiations could take a while. (Or, a Democratic replacement for Walker could find herself with much friendlier people on the other side of the table and it could be settled very quickly.)

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I doubt that the FRA will operate that way on bringing WI into the Midwest group. With the funding for intercity passenger rail having dried up since FY2010, the goal should be to make the best use of the remaining stimulus and FY10 funds to expand and improve service where it can to build support in the longer term for passenger rail.

One way to do that is improve and grow the Hiawatha service with new and more reliable equipment that is not prone to major problems in winter weather. In FY2013, the Hiawatha service had 820K passengers. if the new bi-levels add seat capacity and attract new customers and WI is willing to fund upgrades for additional daily frequencies, the service should easily increase to more than 1 million passengers a year. A million plus passengers a year is a good soundbite number to challenge those who attack trains by claiming that "nobody" or hardly anyone takes the train (outside of the northeast).

If the end result of the surge of funding from the stimulus and FY10 grants in circa 5 years is over a million passengers a year for the Hiawathas, the Lincoln service, and the Wolverine service (or the combined Michigan services which had 804K passengers in FY13), that should help in the long run to make the argument for adding or upgrading other corridor services in the Midwest. I don't think the senior staff and leadership at the FRA is going to let any past actions by Gov. Walker get in the way. Governors and Presidents come and go, the bureaucrats and mid-level staff remain. They usually don't get personal about it.

jis said:

After reading many of his columns and sitting through several of his talks, I have arrived at the conclusion that he is not particularly good with facts or arithmetic. but he is very good at spinning a good yarn, and I enjoy his stuff from that angle. He certainly appears to a personal vendetta against Boardman, and that shows through at every turn.

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There's nothing that chaps a perennial critic's hide worse than somebody waltzing in there and succeeding, over and over again, at what you said couldn't be done. Nothing except seeing what you specifically called out as heralding Dooooom! failing to bring about Dooooom! and in fact seeing those things enhance ridership and revenue.

Of course the FRA is going to say everything is all friendly-friendly.

However, the federal money was committed to Illinois (& and the other states who didn't reject the ARRA money). If extra bilevels are purchased *with the same money*, I would bet that Illinois is going to buy them with what is effectively an Illinois earmark, and that Illinois is going to charge Wisconsin to use them.

Anything else would amount to FRA favoritism towards Wisconsin. Which isn't happening. The FRA was pretty aggressive about forcing Wisconsin to redesign the Milwaukee platform improvements rather than allowing them to be grandfathered or given an exception based on future plans.

So, what I expect is this: Wisconsin will keep paying 75% of the cost of operating the Hiawathas, and Illinois will pay 25%, but part of that payment will come right back to Illinois in payments for use of the new bilevels. Effectively Illinois will be paying less and Wisconsin more.

Comments from Secretary Gottlieb: http://www.wpr.org/transportation-secretary-says-walker-has-accomplished-lot-wisconsin-rail Obviously, I disagree with his statements.

It makes sense for WI to piggyback on the bilevel order. Never understood the hysteria around the Talgo cars, wrong equipment for the route. More emotional fanboy stuff than anything.

neroden said:

So, what I expect is this: Wisconsin will keep paying 75% of the cost of operating the Hiawathas, and Illinois will pay 25%, but part of that payment will come right back to Illinois in payments for use of the new bilevels. Effectively Illinois will be paying less and Wisconsin more.

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In effect Wisconsin will pay Illinois instead of Amtrak for the equipment. Of course all this probably be handled as an adjustment (reduction) to the net payment that Illinois will make to Amtrak for operations.

Walker has a lot of irons in the fire, but the High Speed Rail they tried to put in from Milwaukee to Madison was full of holes and not one he wanted to keep in the fire. Talking to family who lived along the route, it would not have stopped at some places, unless the city or village PAID for the stop to be put in. Further biggest gripe from the non train supporters was the fact that the train did not intend to go into Madison, but rather to the airport which is on the fringe of the north side of the city. Then they were arguing in good ol Socialist Republic of Madison on whether busses will be used to get people from the airport to the downtown area and if that would cause more busses to be needed and increase a CNG footprint.

I support trains, but lets have some common sense. If it is to connect Milwaukee to Madison, then have it go where the people need it to go.

HF