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Busboy

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what routes will the new sleeper cars be put on first? I have a trip planned on the LSL in Feb 15 and was wondering if I might see one of the new sleepers.
 
Because the baggage cars and diners are going to be rolled out first, with the new sleeping cars to follow.

We'll be well into 2015 before we see any new sleeping cars in service.
 
My bet is on the "not a chance" answer. February 2015 is only about four months from now. Before the sleepers go into service, they have to go through testing, then they are sent out for crew familiarization training. That sort of stuff seems to take forever with Amtrak. If the travel date were February 2016, then maybe. 2015? To coin a phrase, "not a chance."
 
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I understand that, especially since February 2014 is in the past!

We'll be well into 2015 before we see any new sleeping cars in service.
I would say that February isn't "well into 2015". Heck, we may not see sleeping cars until 2016 at the rate things are going.

It's possible that his train will have a Viewliner Diner (likely, even, since the 8400 is out there), and even possible that it'll have a Viewliner Baggage car. But a sleeper? Ain't gonna happen.
 
My bet is on the "not a chance" answer. February 2015 is only about four months from now. Before the sleepers go into service, they have to go through testing, then they are sent out for crew familiarization training. That sort of stuff seems to take forever with Amtrak. If the travel date were February 2016, then maybe. 2015? To coin a phrase, "not a chance."
I would go with not a chance answer as well. There has been little to no news on the Viewliner IIs recently except for the 2 baggage cars out in the system for testing and, i presume, maintenance training and familiarization. By February, 2015, there is a chance the LSL could have a new baggage car and an even smaller chance that it could have a new Viewliner diner (not including the 8400).

Edit: typo fix on the 8400 diner.
 
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The latest update capital projects status report for July came out a few weeks ago. At that time, delivery of production baggage cars was expected to begin sometime in November. All other car types have been pushed to the back of the production line to allow CAF time to resolve issues on those while the baggage cars are delivered. The update also mentioned the change in quantities that is already known (10 bag-dorms and 70 full bags). Personally, I would be surprised to see anything other than baggage cars in service before mid to late-2015.
 
The latest update capital projects status report for July came out a few weeks ago. At that time, delivery of production baggage cars was expected to begin sometime in November. All other car types have been pushed to the back of the production line to allow CAF time to resolve issues on those while the baggage cars are delivered.
Wow. That is a change. If CAF is going to deliver the 70 baggage cars first, before beginning the diners, bag dorms, and sleepers, well, wild guess every other week, or 4 per month off the assembly line, about 17 months worth of baggage cars. Then starting in November, sometime, maybe, end of …, then the first diner could come around May 2016. If they can push one baggage car a week off each line, then it's gonna be 8 per month. That would begin diners and stuff August of next year. I guess if the baggage cars are completed by that time, CAF could do diners on one line and sleepers on the other.

Somehow I'm not feeling 2 cars per week, tho. In fact, I wonder if this could be more slow-walking by Amtrak and CAF. Maybe its cheaper to make completion payments on baggage cars than on the fancier ones, postponing that cash demand a few more months. Or, the Fleet Renewal Plan emphasizes how badly Amtrak wants competing bids for its equipment buys. Siemens is in the game with the launch order for 70 or so Next Generation single-level coaches from All Aboard Florida. CAF could be ready to bid with an open assembly line, too, if the deliveries of the Viewliner IIs -- including a possible small option order -- extends the production until an order can be put out to bid.

Pure speculation on my part, need I point out.
 
Probably less than 50/50 since getting the new Bag cars and Diners into service seems be the highest priority which is understandable due to the Heritage Cars Antique status!

I'd look for the Sleepers towards the end of 2015, start of 2016, after all it' s Amtrak where nothing happens fast except nickel and dime cuts and down graded meals in the diner!
 
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Woody, your time calculations are a little off. If the production lines are producing only 1 car/week, 68 baggage cars (remember, 2 are done already) takes you from November 2014 into March 2016. If it's 2 cars/week (and with two production lines, it *should* be), then July 2015. On the other hand, they might only run one active production line while they're trying to work out the bugs in the other car designs.
 
Woody, your time calculations are a little off. If the production lines are producing only 1 car/week ... takes you from November 2014 into March 2016. If it's 2 cars/week ... then July 2015.
Thanks for your careful calculations. My heart sank when you said I was a little off. I feared that I got a Fiscal Year wrong or something. But we differ by only a month or two, so I can relax.
I was counting on my fingers and toes, and fudging, OK, considering that the Xmas-New Year's week (or two) can be highly unproductive, and to allow for a teeny bit more slippage in deadlines. LOL. I mean if you're betting that they'll stick to schedule, and I'm betting on a teeny bit (or more) slippage in deadlines, you might as well pay up now! The best news about this order could be what we are not hearing: So far no leak at all of finger-pointing, name-calling, and enemy-making between Amtrak and CAF. I believe sourness began over the Acelas before the trains went
into service, and perhaps foreshadowed the considerable problems that spoiled the launch. So I do believe this CAF order, despite repeated delays, is one of those cases where "no news is good news".
 
:)

It really looks to me like producing all the baggage cars first is a cash management action, though I'm also certain that Amtrak wants to make sure *all* the bugs are worked out of the other car designs. (Of course the Heritage baggage cars do appear to be in urgent need of replacement, with cafes doubling as baggage cars and other terrible improvisations going on, but that wouldn't account for doing *all* the baggage cars first, since I'm sure an infusion of 15 baggage cars would relieve that pressure.)

I am optimistic that this indicates Amtrak's intention to exercise the option to buy more sleepers (and possibly bag-dorms and diners) in 2015/2016 when it has more cash. I'm guessing when the baggage car production line stops, that'll be it for baggage cars.

There is still something really odd about this:

All other car types have been pushed to the back of the production line to allow CAF time to resolve issues on those while the baggage cars are delivered.
Assuming that all the bugs have been worked out in the baggage cars, there can't really be too many issues to fix with the other cars. After all, the trucks, couplers & drawgear, frames, bodies, gangways and end doors, most of the electrical, and even the windows are pretty much the same. The interiors are largely by RailPlan, who seem to be quite reliable, and they are mostly tweaked versions of existing Viewliner/Superliner II module designs.

What does that even leave to go wrong? HVAC; plumbing; and, well, fit & finish, I guess (putting the modules in snugly, no creaks or gaps). I suppose the kitchen grill, fridge, etc could have issues, but most of those should have been worked out with the #8400. HVAC and plumbing aren't easy, but they aren't really that difficult either. I would expect any "issues" with the other car types to be resolved before the end of the year... unless the "issues" are actually at RailPlan. So I'm really suspicious that the delivery order rearrangement has more to do with cash management than anything else.
 
order, despite repeated delays, is one of those cases where So I do believe this CAF

"no news is good news".
But lots and lots of no news can't be good either. Acela was a hot item in the press because as a high speed train, everyone had their eyes looking 2 hours a day. These are long distance cars, which even on AU, the delays are forgiven way to easily, while other rail media is openly scolding Boardman and related parties for not clarifying anything.

Glaring things like the sets of cars that tested on the Corridor, then sat in Penn Coach yard, then disappeared back to CAF. A change of dormitory car quantity. Long periods of time with no apparent release of any equipment. Regular missing of deadlines. A switch from the heavily covered inverted arrow design to the current 3 sheets to the wind, makes one wonder if these delays are simple logo changes, or something more substantial. Complete silence can only mean something is wrong somewhere, unless somebody can prove me wrong.
 
:)

It really looks to me like producing all the baggage cars first is a cash management action...

There is still something really odd about this:

All other car types have been pushed to the back of the production line to allow CAF time to resolve issues on those while the baggage cars are delivered.
Assuming that all the bugs have been worked out in the baggage cars ...... I'm really suspicious that the delivery order rearrangement has more to do with cash management than anything else.
I see cash management as one reason to slow walk this order, until Amtrak passes thru the worst period of lease buyouts/debt reduction. Congress management could be another, to finance any option order at a time and in a manner so as not to inflame the haters.

Order readiness management is another. To get CAF in a good position to bid for an order to build Next Gen single-level coaches, it should have an open assembly line, with a trained workforce in place, when Amtrak finally puts out the Request for Proposals.

Meanwhile Siemens will be getting up to speed and then producing the 70 iirc Next Gen single-level coaches for All Aboard Florida. I'm not saying that Amtrak favors CAF, or CAF and Siemens, over the other potential bidders, but it surely wants at least two very strong bidders. Nothing makes a bidder stronger than an open assembly line.

The worst thing for a CAF bid would be for the Viewliner IIs to finish up, the workforce laid off, and then a few months later Amtrak asks for bids for the Next Gen coaches. If Amtrak has a tentative plan to some how, some way order hundreds of Next Gen single-level cars, it won't want to share the details with the haters until it has more of the plan in place.

But meanwhile, if it needs to stretch the CAF order -- and any option order -- another year or two, well, so be it. These several possible reasons for "Regular missing of deadlines" are why I'm so forgiving. The delays could have nothing at all to do with the manufacturing of the cars or any quality issues that would concern us.
 
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I see cash management as one reason to slow walk this order, until

Amtrak passes thru the worst period of lease buyouts/debt reduction.
This year was brutal on the cashflow, despite the new state funding under PRIIA provisions. There were a particularly huge number of leases which needed to be bought out, the Treasury grants for that were gone, the yearly federal funding arrived months late, the state funding generally arrived late, they had to pay Siemens for the ACS-64s before the RRIF loan would reimburse them, and of course the operating results were worse due to BNSF and NS.

It's great that Amtrak has access to short-term commercial loans now, so they were able to do the lease buyouts. But I'm sure those loans have unattractive interest rates, even though they're better than the old leases; Amtrak management probably wants to pay them down ASAP. Which can probably be done pretty easily during FY15, assuming no more catastrophes. But it makes sense that Amtrak might prefer to reduce the commitment of cash to new cars until later in FY15. Although they risk the Heritage dining cars falling apart before they are replaced.
 
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Is it a matter of " Let us get those darn heritage baggage cars off the NEC" ? IMO the LD trains are gumming up the fluidity of the NEC. Often late north bound LD trains are being held at stations waiting for faster regionals and Acelas to pass ? The old baggage cars are deteriorating at different rates so that each one is have a different MAS posted for it ?
 
Is it a matter of " Let us get those darn heritage baggage cars off the NEC" ?

IMO the LD trains are gumming up the fluidity of the NEC. …

The old baggage cars are deteriorating at different rates so that each one

is have a different MAS posted for it ?
Yes, The new cars will speed all trains on the NEC, because

the old ones at least potentially impede every Acela, Regional,

and Keystone.

I hadn't thought of this before, but the day train Palmetto,

NY-Savannah, could get new bag cars first: It has no diner

in the consist. The Lake Shore Ltd could be the last to get new

bag cars and diners, because it does not run on the NE.

Anyway, the other Eastern LD trains have both bag cars and

antiquated diners. Until both are replaced by the new equipment,

they'll continue to go at the speed of the slowest car in the consist.

I'd guess all LD trains move at the same maximum speeds. Life is

complicated enuff without asking schedulers to consider that

some cars, not necessarily on the same trains every run, have

different speed ratings.

Amtrak surely knows the order in which old cars will be removed

from the fleet, worst to least bad. It'll be based on maintenance

records, I'd expect, not any question of top speed or age or

whatever. There are also economies in training, maintenance,

and spare parts coming from having all cars be the same type.

So they'll all be replaced, Eastern train bag cars first, then

the Western ones, then the Eastern diners.
 
I hadn't thought of this before, but the day train Palmetto, NY-Savannah, could get new bag cars first: It has no diner in the consist. The Lake Shore Ltd could be the last to get new bag cars and diners, because it does not run on the NE.
It has been discussed before that the Palmetto, the Carolinian, and #66/#67 could be candidates to get the new baggage cars first as the Heritage baggage cars are the only <125 mph rated car in their consists. The schedule for the overnight #66/#67 is heavily padded, so a new baggage car is not going to change the schedule, but the ability to operate at 125 mph could keep up with other Regional traffic in the evening and early morning runs on the NEC. Deploying the first batch of new baggage cars to those trains would also keep them in the east for servicing and oversight of the roll-out.
As for the LSL, it was supposed to be the first LD train to get the new Viewliner IIs in the original deployment plans. We will see when the bag-dorms and diner cars are finally released into revenue service.
 
In fact, I wonder if this could be more slow-walking by Amtrak

and CAF. Maybe its cheaper to make completion payments

on baggage cars than on the fancier ones, postponing that

cash demand a few more months.

Or, the Fleet Renewal Plan emphasizes how badly Amtrak

wants competing bids for its equipment buys. Siemens is in

the game with the launch order for 70 or so Next Generation

single-level coaches from All Aboard Florida. CAF could be

ready to bid with an open assembly line, too, if the deliveries

of the Viewliner IIs -- including a possible small option order --

extends the production until an order can be put out to bid.

Pure speculation on my part, need I point out.
You could be right but I honestly don't think so. I think Amtrak was actually trying to move as quickly as they could when they had an opportunity because their funding is cyclical. Replacing these baggage cars is #1 because it will improve OTP and therefore revenue (also, less maint costs). So overall it should improve their cash flow.

As always happens, they turned up stuff in testing and had to fix some things. Because cars are built so rarely now and the US market is so, er, exceptional that off-the-shelf equipment is not an option, it means more of these sorts of snafus when you start production up. Hopefully the CAF deal was not as much about toxic corruption as the Bombardier deal for the Acela trainsets. Those got shoved into service and then the wheel/brake assemblies started cracking. Lot of egg on Amtrak's face.

I think the reason for the silence on the CAF order is that Amtrak management wisely is not trying to overdeliver here and basically told Marketing they can wank about the new cars when the Heritage baggage cars have been sent to the boneyard and not before. Instead, they are using Marketing and the usual pols to go on and on about their 160mph project in Jersey because a) they need constant tension cat, b) it costs money, c) the pols love sexy numbers like 160mph and hate boring stuff like engineering details, d) in a different political environment, the economic stimulus would be justification enough but they can see how the wind is blowing there and aren't mentioning it.

Note they said little publicly about their last NEC loco order until the vehicles were in service.
 
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