Future of Amtrak???

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Amtrak Alan

Train Attendant
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May 30, 2009
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I love trains and love riding Amtrak despite some of it's problems. With funding always a battle, what is the future of Amtrak, both for long distance and shorter routes. I believe it would be a national disgrace if Amtrak is allowed to vanish and no suitable alternative take it's place.
 
As more and more people get with fed up with the airlines, many will discover the comfort of the train. True it takes longer to get there but as I always tell folks I Sleep Like A Kitten and Arrive Fresh As A Daisy!

Yet another flight had to make an emergency landing today when 2 women got into an argument over seat pitch and limited recline. I have heard complaints about seat pitch in Amtrak Coach-even with the tray table arms fully deployed the table is still too far away!
 
I agree Amtrak will continue to trundle along as it has, unloved and underfunded, for the last 43 years. However, there is a crisis coming in the future when the replacement or total rehabilitation of the Superliner fleet becomes urgent. The Superliner Is are already older than much of the fleet that Amtrak acquired from the railroads in 1971. I think getting capital funding for long-distance fleet replacement will be very difficult in the current political climate.
 
Please, folks, don't assume that passenger rail will survive just because it always has. It will survive only if you and I advocate for it, both in DC and in state legislatures -- especially now that funding is coming increasingly from the states. If you can spend the time to chat here, you can spend the time to join advocacy organizations (see my sig) and talking to your legislators. Thank you.
 
The Superliner Is are already older than much of the fleet that Amtrak acquired from the railroads in 1971. I think getting capital funding for long-distance fleet replacement will be very difficult in the current political climate.
Whereas what you say is true enough for coffee shop chatter, it isn't, entirely. First, the Superliner I's have already gone through major refurbishment. Second, they were presumably built (then refurbished) to much higher FRA requirements than the pre-Amtrak generation of passenger railcars. And finally, despite the political climate, Amtrak has been able to buy 40 new sleepers, 40 new diners, and 40 new baggage cars - because they are replacing cars that are truly falling apart.
Yes, with better funding we can get more newer equipment faster and replace units lost to accidents. But when they are given too much money, we see silly things like Acela with only 5 revenue cars (vs 16 on Shinkansen) with no way to expand - despite the demand.

Yes, Amtrak will continue to trudge along, but unlikely to ever do more than that.
 
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I love trains and love riding Amtrak despite some of it's problems. With funding always a battle, what is the future of Amtrak, both for long distance and shorter routes. I believe it would be a national disgrace if Amtrak is allowed to vanish and no suitable alternative take it's place.
Amtrak is not about to vanish. Nor is intercity passenger rail. With the states now providing financial support to all the state corridor services, those services are more protected against funding cuts at the federal level. Of the state supported trains, only the 4 day a week Hoosier State faces the prospect of getting dropped. All the other state corridor services appear to be on solid ground at this point, even though Amtrak may lose some of them to other private operators. The NEC is not about to shut down (well, provided the Hudson River tunnels don't have to close for an emergency extended rebuild).

The long distance trains are at some risk, but even the House passed a FY15 appropriations bill this summer with a total of $1.19 billion for Amtrak with $340 million of that for the operating subsidy. It would be a painful cut, but not a close the doors one. The Senate won't go along with the House numbers or amendments, but even if it did, most of the LD trains would keep running. The Sunset Limited and perhaps the Chicago to west coast LD trains are the only ones at direct risk in the current worse case scenario IMO. Supporting passenger rail lobby efforts in Congress is one way to help.

Yes, there are longer term issues with insufficient capital funding for the NEC and to buy replacement rolling stock for the Superliners, Amfleets, and P-42 locomotives. However, the Superliners and Amfleets can keep going for 10 or more years if they have to. The P-42 locomotives are more critical because locomotives don't last as long, but the contract with Siemens for the Charger diesel locomotives provides Amtrak the ability to buy P-42 replacements in smaller order batches that they can finance from an active production line.

These Amtrak is doomed posts overlook the service expansions that are coming in the next 3-5 years: re-route in MA over the CT river line, to Roanoke and 3 daily trains to Norfolk, Ethan Allen extended to Burlington, 2 new routes in IL, improvements in multiple corridors from the surge in stimulus and FY10 funding. There is also a fair amount of new rolling stock in the pipeline to help: 70 ACS-64s, 130 Viewliner IIs, 175 corridor bi-level cars, 35 Siemens diesel locomotives.
 
Yes, with better funding we can get more newer equipment faster and replace units lost to accidents. But when they are given too much money, we see silly things like Acela with only 5 revenue cars (vs 16 on Shinkansen) with no way to expand - despite the demand.
Interesting re-write of history to make a point eh?

The reason that Acelas are the way they are and the number is just 20 is not because there was too much money but there was too little. The project depended on getting a loan from the Canadians even to get what we got. Not because they were overflowing in money and got whatever they wished. So in some sense we were completely beholden to the Canadians in the way of deciding what we could have. Of course add to it Amtrak's endless changing of requirements and Barb the great and all that, and you get what you get, the 4 extra inches and all.

And finally, despite the political climate, Amtrak has been able to buy 40 new sleepers, 40 new diners, and 40 new baggage cars - because they are replacing cars that are truly falling apart.
BTW, what 40 Diner, 40 Sleepers and 40 Baggage cars are you talking about? The original numbers are 25 each Diner, Sleeper, Bag-Dorm, not 40. According to the original order hey could become 40 if they find the money to exercise the options. In addition there are 55 more Baggage cars which could become 80 if options are exercised to the fullest.

Since the original order the Bag-Dorm/Baggage mix has been changed converting 15 Bag-Dorm orders to pure Baggage, with Bag-Dorms reduced to 10 and Baggage increased to 70 AFAIR.

Also the political climate in which the order was placed was much less hostile to Amtrak than it is now.
 
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Amtrak as it exists now has no future other than the NEC. Short corridor trains are the states responsibility and they will go with the lowest bidder to operate them. The LD trains are running on borrowed time, particularly the western ones, as no Superliner equipment orders have been made or anticipated. They will either disappear or be given over to another operator. Maybe some routes will survive as cruise trains for tourists. Others will simply cease to exist or be replace by multiple corridor trains run by the states. Other than a handful of cruise type trains, diners and sleepers on trains are finished.
 
Yes, with better funding we can get more newer equipment faster and replace units lost to accidents. But when they are given too much money, we see silly things like Acela with only 5 revenue cars (vs 16 on Shinkansen) with no way to expand - despite the demand.
Interesting re-write of history to make a point eh?

The reason that Acelas are the way they are and the number is just 20 is not because there was too much money but there was too little. The project depended on getting a loan from the Canadians even to get what we got. Not because they were overflowing in money and got whatever they wished. So in some sense we were completely beholden to the Canadians in the way of deciding what we could have. Of course add to it Amtrak's endless changing of requirements and Barb the great and all that, and you get what you get, the 4 extra inches and all.

And finally, despite the political climate, Amtrak has been able to buy 40 new sleepers, 40 new diners, and 40 new baggage cars - because they are replacing cars that are truly falling apart.
BTW, what 40 Diner, 40 Sleepers and 40 Baggage cars are you talking about? The original numbers are 25 each Diner, Sleeper, Bag-Dorm, not 40. According to the original order hey could become 40 if they find the money to exercise the options. In addition there are 55 more Baggage cars which could become 80 if options are exercised to the fullest.

Since the original order the Bag-Dorm/Baggage mix has been changed converting 15 Bag-Dorm orders to pure Baggage, with Bag-Dorms reduced to 10 and Baggage increased to 70 AFAIR.

Also the political climate in which the order was placed was much less hostile to Amtrak than it is now.
Rewrite? Nay - it's a matter of interpretation. But, yes, Amtrak got a huge influx of money (I didn't say it was theirs) and they spent it poorly. It was a colossal waste of taxpayer money to save an hour and 20 minutes between WAS and BOS. And much of that time savings is simply from scheduling as the equipment itself improves the time by perhaps only saves 20 minutes. As for the 40/40/40 - my intent was in include the options, as we can expect them to most likely be exercised. And, perhaps or, we'll see a full refurbishment of the Viewliner I's in the meantime.

As for the current political climate, we've seen much worse in the past. Oh, don't point to the loss of mints and guava pomegranate elixer in the Rockies, or the removal of the 2nd lounge on the AT. We haven't seen any cuts in SERVICE since the Sunset Limited. And that is success in and of itself.
 
You have to think in terms of probabilities.

  • The probability that Amtrak as we know it today will be dismembered within 10 years? 30%. Within 20 years? 50%. People have been predicting Amtrak's demise continuously since 1971.
  • The probability that the NEC will continue in operation 10 years from now regardless of what happens to Amtrak? 99%. Within 20 years? 99%.
  • The probability that individual states, or compacts of states, will continue to distance themselves from Amtrak? 99%.
  • The probability that every Amtrak LD train of today will be operating in 10 years? 50%. Within 20 years? 20%.
  • The probability that 10 years from now, at least one LD train will be operating up and down the west coast, at least one will be operating up and down the east coast, and a coast-to-coast journey will still be possible on some route (in other words, the trifecta? 80%. 20 years? 40%.
  • The probability that at least one new HSR project will become operational within 10 years? 5%. Within 20 years? 60%.
 
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I generally agree with xyzzy.

I would also add that the probability that the California Corridors and the Cascade Corridor will be operating in 10 and 20 years is also around 99%

The probability that Florida will have a decent intra-state service in 10 years is higher than 70%, may not be Amtrak, but what they hey!

Rewrite? Nay - it's a matter of interpretation. But, yes, Amtrak got a huge influx of money (I didn't say it was theirs) and they spent it poorly. It was a colossal waste of taxpayer money to save an hour and 20 minutes between WAS and BOS. And much of that time savings is simply from scheduling as the equipment itself improves the time by perhaps only saves 20 minutes. As for the 40/40/40 - my intent was in include the options, as we can expect them to most likely be exercised. And, perhaps or, we'll see a full refurbishment of the Viewliner I's in the meantime.
And of course we will ignore the fact that revenues resulting from said colossal waste is now funding a third of the operating cost of LD trains, since it is an inconvenient truth that does not align with our world view. :p
I am told that at present there is no fund available to do anything with Viewliner Is in the way of refurbishment, so they will remain as they are until such funds become available. This from one of the senior operations guy.

As for the current political climate, we've seen much worse in the past. Oh, don't point to the loss of mints and guava pomegranate elixer in the Rockies, or the removal of the 2nd lounge on the AT. We haven't seen any cuts in SERVICE since the Sunset Limited. And that is success in and of itself.
Strawman set up,nicely and knocked down efficiently as expected ;) Who said anything about it being worse than at any time before? But that does not make it good.
Don't worry. The cuts will come soon enough if the western LD rolling stock situation is not dealt with soon. Couple more hefty accidents and watch the world roll along. And yet Boardman is excoriated at every opportunity by the frothing railfans get in spite of the fact that he has managed to produce enough revenues from those wasteful tax expenditures in the past, to keep the whole thing together so far. That and the cash infusion in the brief two year hiatus from endless attacks and budget reductions. The money from that era will finally run out in a couple more years, then we'll see.

I actually suspect the first thing that will happen is a Superliner train will get converted to single level, before there are any cuts of trains. In spite of all the bad press that Boardman gets I think he is pretty committed to maintaining the current LD network by hook or by crook,
 
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The best candidates for conversion from Superliner Equipment to Single Level will be the CONO and the Cap! All Superliner Equipment would then be on Western Trains except the Auto Train!

If a Daily Eagle/ Sunset Ltd. Train ever happens then a Superliner Stub Train could run NOL- SAS with a CCC and Coach or even Horizon Coach and Cafe Car freeing up more Superliner Sleepers, Diners and Coaches to go with that freed up from the CONO and possibly the Cap which could run Amfleet IIs, and Viewliners Sleepers and Diner!

Edited to include the Auto Train! Thanks for the reminder!
 
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The best candidates for conversion from Superliner Equipment to Single Level will be the CONO and the Cap! All Superliner Equipment would then be on Western Trains!
There's still the Auto-Train.
 
The best candidates for conversion from Superliner Equipment to Single Level will be the CONO and the Cap! All Superliner Equipment would then be on Western Trains!

If a Daily Eagle/ Sunset Ltd. Train ever happens then a Superliner Stub Train could run NOL- SAS with a CCC and Coach or even Horizon Coach and Cafe Car freeing up more Superliner Sleepers, Diners and Coaches to go with that freed up from the CONO and possibly the Cap which could run Amfleet IIs, and Viewliners Sleepers and Diner!
That would certainly make sense to change the CL and CONO. I would really miss our Superliner Cap Ltd but if the Cap got some of the new cars with the bathrooms down the hall, it would make it more tolerable for those of us who travel in pairs on the train. :) Of course, if we can gain enough points to ride in bedrooms, then the point would be moot. :eek:
 
There is zero chance of the Auto Train getting converted to single level since Amtrak could not possibly come up with 16 single level Sleepers, not to mention the 8 to 12 LD Coaches, and 6 to 8 Diner/lounges, which is what they will need to convert the Auto Train.

Also, given the Auto Train's financial performance, I suspect a Western train will go down to thrice a week before anything is done to the Auto Train. Remember that these days everything is driven by revenue potential and cost of operation.
 
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jis:I left the Auto Train out of my original post about Superliner Equipment and the poster was just reminding me of that! You are correct, with the dedicated Equipment no way there will be any Equipment changes on the Auto Train unless Amtrak can come up with freed up Superliner Sleepers to replace Coaches!

And the three day a week trains are the biggest losers so I wouldn't expect anymore of these unless some 60 Mass suit had a Brainstorm and told Big Joe: "Here's a great idea Boss! Another 3 days a week LD Train!" NOT!!!!
 
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And the three day a week trains are the biggest losers so I wouldn't expect anymore of these unless some 60 Mass suit had a Brainstorm and told Big Joe: "Here's a great idea Boss! Another 3 days a week LD Train!" NOT!!!!
Jim they are only big losers on an individual fare or costs per rider basis. Overall their costs are less. The biggest losers are the CZ, EB, CS and SWC
 
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The Superliner Is are already older than much of the fleet that Amtrak acquired from the railroads in 1971. I think getting capital funding for long-distance fleet replacement will be very difficult in the current political climate.
Whereas what you say is true enough for coffee shop chatter, it isn't, entirely. First, the Superliner I's have already gone through major refurbishment. Second, they were presumably built (then refurbished) to much higher FRA requirements than the pre-Amtrak generation of passenger railcars. And finally, despite the political climate, Amtrak has been able to buy 40 new sleepers, 40 new diners, and 40 new baggage cars - because they are replacing cars that are truly falling apart.
Yes, with better funding we can get more newer equipment faster and replace units lost to accidents. But when they are given too much money, we see silly things like Acela with only 5 revenue cars (vs 16 on Shinkansen) with no way to expand - despite the demand.

Yes, Amtrak will continue to trudge along, but unlikely to ever do more than that.
I'm glad they refurbished the Superliner I's several years ago, they did a nice job with them. But what about the rest of the fleet? The Superliner II's look pretty tired for the most part, the two Viewliner sleepers I've been in feature lots of scraped paint and rattles, and the early Amfleet cars frequently offer broken down toilets (ditto for the Superliner II's.). I've seen Superliner observation cars where the floor in the bottom area dates to the car's construction and is patched with duct tape.

I hate to be a major nag, but what Amtrak needs now is some newer equipment, then to refurbish the old equipment for surge capacity at peak periods. Too many consists are limited in size due to limited car availability. Crews do the best they can, but many times, Amtrak management seems like a dog that's been whipped a few too many times and wants to stay out of sight.

Amtrak shop forces can do amazing things - I've seen some horizon fleet cars that have been shopped and look very nice inside. The comet rebuilds in California are wonderful. And the TIGER rebuilds were amazing. If Amtrak had some flexibility in car scheduling, and the money to do the rebuilds (and if Chicago stays on top of routine maintenance) we could see a real improvement in the overall experience.
 
.. But when they are given too much money, we see silly things like Acela with only 5 revenue cars (vs 16 on Shinkansen) with no way to expand - despite the demand.
I have to agree with this. Even if there was only enough Canadian money for 6 car Acelas (including the Bistro Cafe), they should have overbuilt the maintenence facilities larger to figure that maybe in the future there might be longer trains. And speaking of the Cafe, the seating is hideous, and the beer on tap thing causing spills is something that ought to have revealed itself long ago. Liquids spill because of gravity, so you either provide for it, or install larger drain traps.

The way CAF and Amtrak are handling the Viewliner II's are also silly. It is coming to light via magazines that there might be discord in the lack of product support during testing. Didn't this crap get ironed out before, the way the ACS64's did? And why so many, so many, so many, X100 delays and revisions to the delivery schedule? Plus lack of transparency? These cars needed to be on line now, but instead Amtrak lost out on the Summer 2014 season to accomodate more premium passengers. Then the Baggage Dorm portion gets changed. Some on here say it'll be ready when they are ready, but I can't and won't endorse such complacency. There has to be some sign of urgency and competance on this project, to maintain our credibility with furture ones.
 
It will be interesting to see how the private adventures in Florida and Texas might change the public and elected officials opinions about train travel. Especially if extra funding is need. The big private toll road around Austin, Tx is on the verge of defaulting on its bonds.

But today I agree we must continue to push our elected officials for a more balanced transportation system.
 
I hate to be a major nag, but what Amtrak needs now is some newer equipment, then to refurbish the old equipment for surge capacity at peak periods. Too many consists are limited in size due to limited car availability. Crews do the best they can, but many times, Amtrak management seems like a dog that's been whipped a few too many times and wants to stay out of sight.

Amtrak shop forces can do amazing things - I've seen some horizon fleet cars that have been shopped and look very nice inside. The comet rebuilds in California are wonderful. And the TIGER rebuilds were amazing. If Amtrak had some flexibility in car scheduling, and the money to do the rebuilds (and if Chicago stays on top of routine maintenance) we could see a real improvement in the overall experience.
I doubt that anyone here disagrees with you, but it's all pie in the sky dreaming until they get money to do it. And by "it" I mean replace the ENTIRE fleet, because doing it piecemeal like the Viewliners (not to say that's a bad program) will just keep up with demand increases, but it's not going to give enough breathing room to do complete rebuilds of the other rolling stock. Till then, whenever "then" is, the best Amtrak can do is muddle along with what they have
 
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