April delays on CapLimited and Zephyr?

Using the wonderful tool at http://www.amtrakdelays.onlineschedulingsoftware.com .

I was just checking on trains I'll be using in near future to go from coast to coast. I see a lot of delays. On April 2, eastbound train 30 reached Chicago (CHI) 2 minutes early. It's been late every day since then, averaging 90 minutes late over the past two weeks. Even with all the padding, such as between South Bend (SOB) and Chicago (CHI), the best performance in the past week was a delay of 45 minutes.

The delays on the sister train, eastbound 29 in the last 2 weeks had an average of 57 minutes late.

-->Anyone have knowledge of the causes for these delays on the Cap Limited?

Also, in the past week, the 5 westbound Zephyr has averaged 105 minutes late into Denver (DEN), and 106 minutes late into Emoryville (EMY). Typically, even slightly late Zephyrs have a chance to catch up by shortening the stay in Denver and Salt Lake,but the recent westbound ones seem just to get more delayed. [And yes, I do know about the weather in the Rockies, since I listen to a radio station from northern Colorado for morning reports.]

-->Is something else going on with the westbound Zephyr - traffic or equipment (e.g. AMTK 155) and manpower shortages or such - that might influence the time duration for my rail journeys in the next few days?

105 minutes late into Denver doesn't sound like anything drastic such as engine failure, freight train wreck, equipment parked on the track in Nebraska, etc.

I suspect it's just BNSF dis-functionality moving south. It wasn't the CZ, but back in February I took the SWC from CHI to Ft. Madison. Between Aurora and Cameron, just west of Galesburg, where the SWC transitions from the old Burlington to the old Santa Fe, we stopped and started and went slow so much that I thought we were in North Dakota.

I travel west a lot to Denver and I don't mind being an hour or so late into Denver. More time for a leisurely shower and breakfast.

Having once lived outside Denver, I got used to the CZ.

Five or six years ago, and especially in winter [i.e., October to beginning of May] sporadic weather-caused delays of 12 hour delays followed by 10 minutes early the next day - that wasn't unusual.

But more recently, the trains seemed to be closer to on time or early - at least when we checked for them in 2011-2013. On-time performance seems much worse in 2014.

Being on a hour or two late train doesn't bother me too much. Being on a train that started so late all passengers missed the first meal, and then facing an offer of Amstew on the other end of the segment is starting to bother me, though. Six to eight hours late trains on all my segments is really starting to bother.

So my question arises because I'm trying to figure out the odds of very late trains and missed meals. I need to decide how much food and how many water bottles to haul along with me.

Golden grrl said:

-->Anyone have knowledge of the causes for these delays on the Cap Limited?

Click to expand...

You can get some clues.
Eastbound, delays prior to South Bend have two possible causes: problems at Amtrak's 14th St. yard, and congestion in the vicinity of Englewood Flyover.

Looking a bit more carefully, I find that the eastbound Capitol Limited usually does just as well into Cleveland as it does into South Bend, indicating that SOB-CLE is running smoothly.

There is some kind of problem on NS between Cleveland and Pittsburgh, because there are a lot of days when the train reaches Cleveland on time and is late to Pittsburgh.

The westbound Capitol Limited is running late into Pittsburgh (== CSX's fault). There may be additional problems west of there (and I would expect problems between Cleveland and Pittsburgh) but nobody recorded enough amtrakdelays data at Cleveland for me to tease them out.

FWIW, the delays have been staying within the 2 hour range on the Capitol Limited, except when there's a "grade crossing incident" or something similar.

Umm, good analysis, neroden. Thanks.

I will be traveling on both the Capitol Limited & CZ in May hope this mess is cleared up.

Be aware that rockslides in the canyons of the CZ route through Colorado are most common in the spring months (especially May) as the snow and ice melts to lubricate the rocks, yet is still often cold enough at night to refreeze the water in the rock crevices, leading to further fracturing.

Yes, chakk, that's a good reminder.

Having lived almost 3 decades in areas where either the SLC or Denver TV channels were the primary evening news stations, I remember some impressive rock slides that harmed a lot of auto travelers on mountain highways. Late April and May are times when snow avalanches are still common too, when the different layers and densities of snows slip and slide. Seems like every year, there's some cross country skiers who get caught by rock or snow slides in the spring in the high country.

I'd guess there could be similar problems causing delays between Reno and Sacramento - in the past week, though, it looks as if the schedule padding has allowed #5 to catch up a few minutes on that stretch.

Oh well, I'll soon see. All packed already and eager to get on my way....