D
David
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I'm on a thursday night train from BOS to WAS and am trying to figure out whether to change my plans. THoughts?
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jis
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It is still a bit too far out to be able to tell for sure. It will all depend on the how the storm center tracks relative to the shore.
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Ryan
Court Jester
Storm is going to be clear of WAS/BAL by midmorning Thursday, looks like. Not sure about further up.
But we won't know the impact it had till it hits or even later since it will be heavy snow & possible icing (downed trees, etc). Plus possible flooding since some areas will also get rain.
the_traveler
Engineer
Even in a small state like Rhode Island, it's hard to say. Early forecasts predict mostly rain along the coast (like Westerly) and heavy snow in northern RI (like Providence). And if the lines go down, it's going to effect rail travel. But you don't know until the storm hits.
jis
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That's nice. For us in northern NJ the precipitation event is now forecast to run from about midnight tonight to midnight Thursday night, starting with snow, and then at some point turning over to rain, and then possibly reverting back to snow before ending.
VentureForth
Engineer
Well, for perspective, they've cancelled just about every train in FL, GA, SC & NC plus the Crescent. I know ice is bad... Is it THAT bad? I hear CSX running this morning. Maybe it'll get worse. Maybe this is just preemptive. It looks like most of the storm will paralize North Georgia and just about ALL of South Carolina. That's a significant chunk of these routes. I'm all for safety first, but I can't help but wonder a little bit if there is some over reacting - especially for the Piedmonts and the Carolinian.
Ice = fallen trees or branches = blocked tracks. Especially with the winds they're forecasting. Better to err on the side of safety.
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Ryan
Court Jester
The forecast is for a storm with SPIA Index of 4 in many locations:
Trying to run trains through areas with "Prolonged & widespread utility interruptions" that can last around a week sounds pretty foolish to me.
Edit: Graphics from Brad Panovich, meteorologist for WCNC
Trying to run trains through areas with "Prolonged & widespread utility interruptions" that can last around a week sounds pretty foolish to me.
Edit: Graphics from Brad Panovich, meteorologist for WCNC
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the_traveler
Engineer
In RI, they are predicting winds of 40-60 MPH! So there is certainly a threat of downed trees.
One of the reasons they cancel trains is so they have the equipment available. It does no good for Amtrak OR passengers if all the available sets are in MIA when they need them in NYP. Or if the train is in NC and the tracks ahead and behind are blocked.
Another reason is for crew safety. The same engineer and Conductor departing Richmond are not the same ones who arrive into ORL. They also have to drive on the same roads in the ice and snow that you and I do.
One of the reasons they cancel trains is so they have the equipment available. It does no good for Amtrak OR passengers if all the available sets are in MIA when they need them in NYP. Or if the train is in NC and the tracks ahead and behind are blocked.
Another reason is for crew safety. The same engineer and Conductor departing Richmond are not the same ones who arrive into ORL. They also have to drive on the same roads in the ice and snow that you and I do.
For the southern end of the NEC, the snow accumulation forecast map on the Washington Post Capital Weather gang webpage shows the NEC route from WAS to Philly in the probable 5" to 10" range with medium confidence, 20% chance of 10" to 16", 20% chance of 2" to 5". The snow is expected to change to a sleet/freezing rain/rain mix along the eastern side of the I-95, but there is large uncertainty as to where the snow/sleet/rain mix will end up.
For the NEC, it will be a mess with possible freezing rain/sleet in some areas. The CL and Cardinal are going to be affected, if not canceled, as the heavy snow fall band of a projected possible 8" to 14" is to the west and northwest of DC.
For the NEC, it will be a mess with possible freezing rain/sleet in some areas. The CL and Cardinal are going to be affected, if not canceled, as the heavy snow fall band of a projected possible 8" to 14" is to the west and northwest of DC.
jis
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An even more important reason is passenger safety, i.e. to avoid having a train full of passengers stuck in the middle of nowhere in a snowdrift with completely unpredictable possibilities of rescue. This did happen pretty recently on the Mendota Sub.
Ryan
Court Jester
For those unfamilliar with the local geography, the NEC runs roughly 5-10 miles east of I-95 between DC and the Baltimore beltway (I-695), so it (and I) are squarely in the "maybe some slop" zone).
June the Coach Rider
OBS Chief
As long as the track of the storm continues as it is predicted, the coastal areas in New England where the NEC runs looks like heavy rain and high winds. But where the frozen precipitation line falls is also an issue. If you are able to change your plans to leave say on Friday rather than Thursday, it might be safer and less chance of being cancelled outright.
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Here are the National Weather Service 4" and 12" snow accumulation probability maps for the next 72 hour period.
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Perhaps this topic should have been titled, "Will Pax affect NEC pax?" 
jis
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The real problem though is if snow accumulation will be limited due to some of the precipitation accumulating as ice or sleet. The current scenario where I live is it will be snow -> mix -> ice pellets -> mix -> heavy wet snow, and then fortunately not a solid freeze but actually rising temps to 41 on Friday. The heavy wet snow near the end is likely to bring down some trees and power lines. So we'll see how it goes. Fortunately the next solid freeze is Friday night onwards, so there is a little time during the day Friday to wind up the residual mess before it all turns to ice again.
The NEC through NJ will probably be more in the rain/sleet area after an initial bout of snow since it is east of here and at a lower altitude.
The NEC through NJ will probably be more in the rain/sleet area after an initial bout of snow since it is east of here and at a lower altitude.
Green Maned Lion
Engineer
My God I noticed the people were getting paranoid about winter weather but this is getting ridiculous. Years ago in terrible terrible winter weather not only would most crack trains run but they would run not very late. Now you have people preemptively canceling trains for minor nonsense. And safety of the crew? If I had such an important job I'm driving a four-wheel-drive vehicle. Oh wait I do and I do. The capabilities of four-wheel-drive vehicles are such that I can back through 10" of snow without trouble' and easily clear the plow pile, without even stepping on the throttle. And as for driving, judicious use of speed, acceleration and jerk mean driving is safe- and that's without four wheel drive, by the way.
This is not about safety. This is about the pussification of America combined with looking for every excuse not to go to work, especially if you are still paid. Safety has become nothing more than a club to get anything done or stopped, so long as you can tentatively link it with safety. That way, it looks like you are heartless asshat when you go against it.
Fine, I look like a heartless asshat. So sue me. This isn't a hellacious storm. This is hype. Trains are supposed to be the mode most resilient to the weather, and believe me, they still are. The spineless, cowardly, phlegmbags in management who are scared of their own shadow are less so. But what's worse? You people, who don't even call them on it. What happened to American Can-Do spirit? The rugged, never say die attitude that freed us from the most fearsome military on earth in four short years, stood up for moral rights and fought to the death to free slaves from imprisonment within our own borders, who stepped in and smacked Europe into order not once but twice?
We used to not be so scared of every attempt by anything to subdue us. But it's gone.
When I was a lad, I longed to save the world, but as I matured, I realized they have me outnumbered.
This is not about safety. This is about the pussification of America combined with looking for every excuse not to go to work, especially if you are still paid. Safety has become nothing more than a club to get anything done or stopped, so long as you can tentatively link it with safety. That way, it looks like you are heartless asshat when you go against it.
Fine, I look like a heartless asshat. So sue me. This isn't a hellacious storm. This is hype. Trains are supposed to be the mode most resilient to the weather, and believe me, they still are. The spineless, cowardly, phlegmbags in management who are scared of their own shadow are less so. But what's worse? You people, who don't even call them on it. What happened to American Can-Do spirit? The rugged, never say die attitude that freed us from the most fearsome military on earth in four short years, stood up for moral rights and fought to the death to free slaves from imprisonment within our own borders, who stepped in and smacked Europe into order not once but twice?
We used to not be so scared of every attempt by anything to subdue us. But it's gone.
When I was a lad, I longed to save the world, but as I matured, I realized they have me outnumbered.
Litigation happy society
June the Coach Rider
OBS Chief
First off, you hit it right on the head, you have four-wheel-DRIVE. You do not have four-wheel-STOP. Plus if there is ice on the roads, your four-wheel-drive will do you no good. Going blindly out into a storm is not only dangerous, it is down right ridiculous. I would think your life was worth more to you than just, the Can-do attitude as you say.
The main problem with the train is not so much the snow, but the frozen switches which are needed to pass the trains safely from place to place. Plus if there is heavy winds, there are trees that would be on the tracks and without having a chrystal ball, there is no way of knowing when a tree will block the tracks. It is better to not have a train full of passengers stranded out in an ice or snow storm and safely at home than to just do as you say and go ahead with a blind eye.
the_traveler
Engineer
Part of the problem with driving during storms is - those who have 4-wheel drive vehicles! I'm not saying all of them, but at least some of them say "I've got 4-wheel drive, so I can drive down the highway in any weather at 80 MPH!" But what vehicles do you see in the ditch or overturned in bad weather many times? :huh:
And many times it's not Amtrak who cancels trains just because they want to. If CSX or BNSF pulls their dispatchers from a section of the track (because of weather or some reason), Amtrak can not operate even if it wants to. They have no choice but to cancel.
You notice the initial list of cancellations in this thread was only on CSX lines. It originally did not include NS rails. That tells me it was probably CSX and not Amtrak that caused the cancellations.
And many times it's not Amtrak who cancels trains just because they want to. If CSX or BNSF pulls their dispatchers from a section of the track (because of weather or some reason), Amtrak can not operate even if it wants to. They have no choice but to cancel.
You notice the initial list of cancellations in this thread was only on CSX lines. It originally did not include NS rails. That tells me it was probably CSX and not Amtrak that caused the cancellations.
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The Crescent and the Piedmonts are cancelled, and they operate on Norfolk Southern.
Ryan
Court Jester
That's where the "judicious use of speed, acceleration and jerk mean driving is safe" part comes in. Driving on snow isn't rocket surgery, you just have to use common sense. That said, I don't go out unless necessary (in my little front wheel drive Cruze) because of all of the other idiots that don't know what they're doing.
Solved problem (the ones on the NEC are electric and nowhere near as cool looking)
June the Coach Rider
OBS Chief
Ryan, I know you are doing your usual to make sure that what I say is wrong, but it does not work anymore. The post that I quoted said that he would plow thru snow piles, that to me sounds like he is not using common sense. This is why I commented. I know there are those that use their brains while driving, but there are also many more that don't.That's where the "judicious use of speed, acceleration and jerk mean driving is safe" part comes in. Driving on snow isn't rocket surgery, you just have to use common sense. That said, I don't go out unless necessary (in my little front wheel drive Cruze) because of all of the other idiots that don't know what they're doing.
Solved problem (the ones on the NEC are electric and nowhere near as cool looking)
You explained that the switches are heated, ok, that is all good, but where does the power come for heating them? If trees take down power lines, then the NEC trains cannot run without power, oh did you forget that they run on electric power. So yes, you show the switches heated, but can you tell me how the trains will run without power?
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the_traveler
Engineer
That is the reason I specified "... the initial list ..."!
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