56 replies to this topic

[CHamilton]

DesertXpress inks deal to add train link from Victorville to Palmdale, making travel to L.A. possible

A seamless high-speed rail system linking Las Vegas with downtown Los Angeles is the goal adopted today by representatives of DesertXpress and the Los Angeles Metropolitan Transit Authority.

DesertXpress Enterprises already is trying to build a high-speed rail line between Las Vegas and Victorville, Calif. A new agreement signed today makes possible a second leg, linking Victorville to Palmdale, Calif., and eventually Los Angeles.

DesertXpress and MTA representatives signed documents that open the door to the Las Vegas-Los Angeles route. The agreement includes a strategy to plan and build a 50-mile high-speed line between Victorville and Palmdale, which would initially connect to Metrolink tracks and eventually be the connection point to California’s planned high-speed rail system.

[leemell]

DesertXpress inks deal to add train link from Victorville to Palmdale, making travel to L.A. possible

A seamless high-speed rail system linking Las Vegas with downtown Los Angeles is the goal adopted today by representatives of DesertXpress and the Los Angeles Metropolitan Transit Authority.

DesertXpress Enterprises already is trying to build a high-speed rail line between Las Vegas and Victorville, Calif. A new agreement signed today makes possible a second leg, linking Victorville to Palmdale, Calif., and eventually Los Angeles.

DesertXpress and MTA representatives signed documents that open the door to the Las Vegas-Los Angeles route. The agreement includes a strategy to plan and build a 50-mile high-speed line between Victorville and Palmdale, which would initially connect to Metrolink tracks and eventually be the connection point to California's planned high-speed rail system.

Well that will certainly move the FRA in the direction of approving the Desertxpress loan, due soon.

[Anderson]

Thank God they got something together there. Otherwise, this was going to be a wreck...not that Palmdale is perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but it's not bad. Also, Palmdale is on one of the LA Metrolink lines, so if you can rework Metrolink's schedule a bit, there might be room for a regular cross-platform transfer here. The other option available might be to simply electrify the Palmdale-LAX line.

However, a coin dropped in my mind, and I'd like to raise a question: If DX extends their line from Palmdale to LAX, is there a way that CAHSR could piggyback on that (or that the two could share costs for the necessary line through the mountains)? This comes up because while I know there's a range of mountains between Bakersfield and Palmdale, it at least looks (well, to me) like such a project might save some money through shared operations.

Edit: Looks like DX has decided, at least for now, to go with the cross-platform option.

Also, though I can't tell because of the zoom on the map on that page...is DX going to have some sort of stop at Barstow, or was there just sloppy map work?

Edited by Anderson, 08 June 2012 - 10:50 PM.

[johnny.menhennet]

No stop at Barstow. Only Victorville, Vegas, and then extension to Palmdale afterward The Barstow stop you see listed is the SWC stop that overlaps at the same point. There is no way whatsoever that the Metrolink line will be electrified anytime soon. The line takes 2 hours, and 1 and 1/2 on the express run. It is actually a long distance, and the # of freights each day heading toward Tehachapi make this overwhelming. There are SO many grade crossings in the Valley so it would require significant amounts of grade separation. I don't know, but I still don't see this as that much of an improvement.

Edit for more info

Edited by johnny.menhennet, 08 June 2012 - 11:10 PM.

[Anderson]

No stop at Barstow. Only Victorville, Vegas, and then extension to Palmdale afterward The Barstow stop you see listed is the SWC stop that overlaps at the same point. There is no way whatsoever that the Metrolink line will be electrified anytime soon. The line takes 2 hours, and 1 and 1/2 on the express run. It is actually a long distance, and the # of freights each day heading toward Tehachapi make this overwhelming. There are SO many grade crossings in the Valley so it would require significant amounts of grade separation. I don't know, but I still don't see this as that much of an improvement.

Edit for more info

It's a shame, really...even adding the 90 minutes of an express run at current standards and 40 minutes for the Palmdale-Victorville connection (assuming about 50 miles, this might even be a bit slow if the RoW is straight enough, but I'm also assuming a moderately long stop at Victorville, you'd still beat driving time by about an hour (90+40=130+80=210 minutes, or 3:30; driving time on Gmaps registers as 4:22, or 262 minutes)...and of course, that driving time naturally assumes that you don't get stuck in traffic in the LA area.

I asked the question because even at current operating speeds (slow though they might be), the value of the one-seat ride is hard to underestimate. Pulling the Antelope Valley timetable, I get the following:
Antelope Valley
200 (Normal): 1:46/106 minutes; 8 intermediate stops
202 (Normal): 1:51/111 minutes; 8 intermediate stops
204 (Normal): 1:57/117 minutes; 8 intermediate stops
282 (Express): 1:33/93 minutes; 3 intermediate stops
206 (Normal): 1:51/111 minutes; 8 intermediate stops
208 (Normal): 1:51/111 minutes; 8 intermediate stops

Cutting 5 stops saves 18-24 minutes. This comes to 4:30-6:00 per stop. Assuming 5 minutes per stop (a decent average), cutting the remaining three stops for a DX train would save 15 more minutes (on the low end, 13 minutes; on the high end, 18 minutes). Pulling the overall time down to 3:15 is definitely a sellable proposition IMHO, and you might be able to slice another 5 minutes off on some running assumptions between Palmdale and Victorville (or, potentially, cutting one of those stops on a few trains).

Also...if you can't get Palmdale-Victorville electrified, are there any decent dual-modes that could run at 150 MPH under electric mode?

Edited by Anderson, 08 June 2012 - 11:35 PM.

[George Harris]

Cutting 5 stops saves 18-24 minutes. This comes to 4:30-6:00 per stop. Assuming 5 minutes per stop (a decent average), cutting the remaining three stops for a DX train would save 15 more minutes (on the low end, 13 minutes; on the high end, 18 minutes). Pulling the overall time down to 3:15 is definitely a sellable proposition IMHO, and you might be able to slice another 5 minutes off on some running assumptions between Palmdale and Victorville (or, potentially, cutting one of those stops on a few trains).

Also...if you can't get Palmdale-Victorville electrified, are there any decent dual-modes that could run at 150 MPH under electric mode?

Depending upon power to weigth ratio, normally it takes right at 3 minutes plus dwell time for a stop down from and back up to 79 mph. Most of LA to Palmdale is not that fast, so the time consumed per stop would be less.

[Anderson]

Cutting 5 stops saves 18-24 minutes. This comes to 4:30-6:00 per stop. Assuming 5 minutes per stop (a decent average), cutting the remaining three stops for a DX train would save 15 more minutes (on the low end, 13 minutes; on the high end, 18 minutes). Pulling the overall time down to 3:15 is definitely a sellable proposition IMHO, and you might be able to slice another 5 minutes off on some running assumptions between Palmdale and Victorville (or, potentially, cutting one of those stops on a few trains).

Also...if you can't get Palmdale-Victorville electrified, are there any decent dual-modes that could run at 150 MPH under electric mode?

Depending upon power to weigth ratio, normally it takes right at 3 minutes plus dwell time for a stop down from and back up to 79 mph. Most of LA to Palmdale is not that fast, so the time consumed per stop would be less.

True, but I believe that the Palmdale-LAX timetables also include a good deal of dwell time because of the nature of commuter trains (particularly the expresses, which at the remaining stops are presumably going to be boarding or alighting 100+ people at a time).

Edit: And it looks like the long-term plans seek to run the line down the Antelope Valley Line and ultimately to San Diego. How that's going to be made to work at full speed is beyond me based on what has been said. Still, based on the talk, it might well be possible to run a near-straight full speed link from Victorville to Palmdale, which will count for something (maybe an average speed of 100 MPH on that leg?).

Also, does anybody have any more information on the "Southwest Network" that DX mentions on their site is supposed to grow into?

Edited by Anderson, 09 June 2012 - 04:45 AM.

[AlanB]

The other option available might be to simply electrify the Palmdale-LAX line.

From the first story posted by Charlie:

The Metrolink lines south of Palmdale would need to be electrified with double and triple tracks. Rail experts say the existing lines are capable of accommodating trains that travel up to 50 mph, but the goal would be to have trains that could reach 150 mph.

However, a coin dropped in my mind, and I'd like to raise a question: If DX extends their line from Palmdale to LAX, is there a way that CAHSR could piggyback on that (or that the two could share costs for the necessary line through the mountains)? This comes up because while I know there's a range of mountains between Bakersfield and Palmdale, it at least looks (well, to me) like such a project might save some money through shared operations.

Again from the first story:

The agreement includes a strategy to plan and build a 50-mile high-speed line between Victorville and Palmdale, which would initially connect to Metrolink tracks and eventually be the connection point to California’s planned high-speed rail system

[Anderson]

Alan,
I got to that...but I also got told "not happening" in this thread. Mind you, simply using dual modes (or even hooking a diesel to the front of the DX trainset) and running at 50 MPH Palmdale-LAX would be a stopgap option...it wouldn't be great, of course, but if the math I ran holds up reasonably well, it would still allow a 3:15-3:30 LA-Vegas run that could be slowly brought down with signal, etc. work. Even if it were only for 2-3 years while something was finished on the Antelope Valley Line, it would definitely be better than nothing...and assuming that DX actually works out and turns a profit, I would be very surprised if their projections wouldn't suggest enough of a performance improvement to start "going in" with CA on some of the improvements (even if it's just signaling to get the speed limit up to 79 MPH where curves permit).

In this vein, I'm also wondering if there are any plans to link the "Southern California Station" in Victorville to anything other than Palmdale and Vegas at some point.

[AlanB]

Anderson,

There is a difference between Metrolink going electric vs. allowing wires to be built over their tracks for the DX.

By the way to answer your other question, the NJT dual mode locos have a top speed of 125 MPH and I believe that max speed is only when operating in electric mode. I don't believe that in diesel mode that it can move that fast.

AFAIK, these are the only dual mode engines in the world currently that can run off of catenary.

[Anderson]

Anderson,

There is a difference between Metrolink going electric vs. allowing wires to be built over their tracks for the DX.

By the way to answer your other question, the NJT dual mode locos have a top speed of 125 MPH and I believe that max speed is only when operating in electric mode. I don't believe that in diesel mode that it can move that fast.

AFAIK, these are the only dual mode engines in the world currently that can run off of catenary.

True...and I think the latter is more likely than the former (which is a pity, given the apparent advantages of electrics over diesels in passenger service, but also understandable given the costs involved).

I actually didn't know that NJT ran that fast...I seem to recall that it was only MARC that actually ran up to 125 in commuter service (which made them the fastest commuter operation in the world in terms of top speed). Thanks for the bit on the dual modes, though...which would seem to leave us with either "loco swapping" (no pun intended) of some sort or a cross-platform transfer, perhaps alongside a spare Metrolink frequency.

Edit: Just another thought, but what's the present size of the LA-Vegas travel market? I know it's listed somewhere, but I'm trying to get a feel for what DX can hope to "mine"...in particular, I'm trying to compare it to BOS-NYP (where the Acela has 40-ish percent air/rail market share, though I know the limits of the comparison because of lousy public transit in SoCal and in Vegas at the present).

While we're on this...am I imagining things, or did DX initially plan to run faster than 150 MPH and back down*? Or am I just throwing numbers from that maglev project (which was somewhat faster) in here by mistake?

*And if they did so, does this imply a rolling stock shift, say to Acela-style cars?

Edited by Anderson, 09 June 2012 - 08:09 PM.

[AlanB]

I didn't say that NJT ran at 125 MPH, I said the new locos have a top speed of 125 MPH. I don't think that NJT has yet had its multi-level cars certified for 125 MPH operation on the NEC, although Jishnu would know for sure and may well correct me.

Can't help you with the rest of your questions, sorry.

[johnny.menhennet]

Anderson,

There is a difference between Metrolink going electric vs. allowing wires to be built over their tracks for the DX.

By the way to answer your other question, the NJT dual mode locos have a top speed of 125 MPH and I believe that max speed is only when operating in electric mode. I don't believe that in diesel mode that it can move that fast.

AFAIK, these are the only dual mode engines in the world currently that can run off of catenary.

True...and I think the latter is more likely than the former (which is a pity, given the apparent advantages of electrics over diesels in passenger service, but also understandable given the costs involved).

I actually didn't know that NJT ran that fast...I seem to recall that it was only MARC that actually ran up to 125 in commuter service (which made them the fastest commuter operation in the world in terms of top speed). Thanks for the bit on the dual modes, though...which would seem to leave us with either "loco swapping" (no pun intended) of some sort or a cross-platform transfer, perhaps alongside a spare Metrolink frequency.

Edit: Just another thought, but what's the present size of the LA-Vegas travel market? I know it's listed somewhere, but I'm trying to get a feel for what DX can hope to "mine"...in particular, I'm trying to compare it to BOS-NYP (where the Acela has 40-ish percent air/rail market share, though I know the limits of the comparison because of lousy public transit in SoCal and in Vegas at the present).

While we're on this...am I imagining things, or did DX initially plan to run faster than 150 MPH and back down*? Or am I just throwing numbers from that maglev project (which was somewhat faster) in here by mistake?

*And if they did so, does this imply a rolling stock shift, say to Acela-style cars?

The SoCal-Vegas market is HUGE! I would even venture to say size of or maybe larger of NYC-Boston, when you ignore intermediate points. Currently, there are two ways to get there. Drive on the 15, which is only 4 lanes to the 395, 3 to Barstow, and 2 the entire rest of the way to Vegas. The there is flying. If you look at the the number of fliers to Las Vegas from the SoCal airports, it is a large amount. These figures are from March 2011 - Feb 2012, unless otherwise noted.

From LAX: 1.147 million
From San Diego: 415,000
From OC: 221,000
From Long Beach: 172,000 (just on JetBlue alone)
From Burbank: 355,000 (June 10 - May 11)
From Ontario: 210,000 (taken Nov 10 - Oct 11)

When I was on a road trip coming back from Utah 4 or so years ago, it was crazy. July 4th was a Friday, and we were coming back the 6th, a Sunday. You would not believe the craziness on the 15 coming back. The entire way back to San Bernardino-ish, it was stop-and-go with the top speed the entire time we reached was 50/ There are a few occasional truck lanes, but only a few miles and very inadequate. Actually . the route is screaming for fast rail more than a NorCal-SoCal in many ways. The only problem is Cajon. Even if you could achieve 4 hour service from LA, that would be a great improvement and a great draw to people. The problem is sprawl. There would definitely need to be a stop in the San Fernando Valley, taking at least 5 minutes off the time, because it would have to slow down from and speed up from higher speeds. You would need one in Santa Clarita as well. There are 4 million people in the Inland Empire, whose drive is already under 4 or 5 hours on a really good day depending on where you live. The people from San Diego are not going to drive 2 hours to LA to get on a 4 hour train, when the drive is already less than 6 hours on a good day. There goes another 3 million. Most Orange County people currently all cram on to the 91 and then to the 15 to get up, and the trafficky drive to LA would be a turn-off. There goes at least 2 million. The eastern end of LA County is also not going to drive into LA. Take off 1.5-2 million more. All together, you get almost 11 million of SoCal's 17 who the train would not be worth it to. It would mostly only work for people in Los Angeles County anywhere west of the 57, and maybe some northern Orange Countyers west of the 5. With a Santa Clarita and a Valley stop, you may be able to appeal to many Ventura County residents.
Anyways, the SoCal-Vegas market is HUGE, and still growing. It may not be that way for long, seeing as Lake Mead only needs to go down another 30 feet until Vegas' drinking straws and sole source of water rise above the water line. Vegas is setting itself up to be the biggest ghost town the world has seen, but in the now, it is a huge destination, with millions going out there every year from SoCal. Of Vegas' 40 million tourists, I would place between 7 and 12 million from SoCal.

I think you are correct that they in the earlier planning stages, they did initially plan for a higher speed, probably the 220 like the CHSR system.

I also believe you're correct on the MARC speed, which can reach 125. Too bad Metro-North weren't easier to deal with and would run some trains at this speed, or even allow Amtrak to break 100 here.

[leemell]

Anderson,

I think you are correct that they in the earlier planning stages, they did initially plan for a higher speed, probably the 220 like the CHSR system.

I also believe you're correct on the MARC speed, which can reach 125. Too bad Metro-North weren't easier to deal with and would run some trains at this speed, or even allow Amtrak to break 100 here.

DX did indeed plan for 220 MTUs, but cut it back when they started seriously going for EIRs and FRA approval.Their first plans called for 150, then when CAHSR got serious they moved it up to 220. Later they went back to 150.

[Anderson]

Well, at least if there's one advantage about Cajon (at least, I think it's Cajon) at the moment traffic-wise, it is the presence of an 8-lane freeway through the pass (which was surreal to drive through one day...you have no idea how strange it is to see "National Forest" signs on the one hand and be in a massive freeway on the other). In an ideal world, there would be some serious talk about extending the I-15 RoW work through there, but I see probable speed limitations because of the curves.

Palmdale makes sense for SoCal, but if CAHSR comes together it also makes sense for the Bay Area...again, you wouldn't get to the massive 90% market takeover that the Acela has WAS-NYP, but with a good link, DX could probably take 1/3 or so.

By the way, I'm just wondering...seeing as DX is a single line, does anyone want to take a ballpark swing at the ridership DX would need to simply cover operating expenses? This comes up because...well, I may be overly skeptical, but $89/RT (or basically $45/seat) is what they're boasting for probable prices. That is...somewhere around 1/3 what the Acela generates, and I know that those operating expenses will face a decent amount of debt service ($40 million in interest per billion lent, assuming a 4% interest rate).

As to the train situation from the southern ends of the region, I'm wondering about yet another possibility: If DX can get their line into LAX, how effective would the Surfliners be as a feeder line? I don't see a long Metrolink ride as a workable substitute here, but (assuming that they are a bit more comfortable, plus the presence of OBS) to what extent would the Surfliners serve as a good traffic driver and/or benefit from such a link?

Edit: Ok, assuming an $8bn loan at 4%, and assuming an average ticket cost of $45/seat, DX would need to sell 7.1 million tickets per year (or host close to 3.6 million round trips per year) to cover the $320m in loan interest. Put another way, they'd need to be running 10,000 round trips/20,000 one-ways per day just to cover the interest. I can't speak to operating expenses, but that right there requires filling about 50 400-seat trains per day (25 in each direction) at the purported ticket prices just to cover interest.

Edited by Anderson, 10 June 2012 - 05:25 PM.

[AlanB]

...you have no idea how strange it is to see "National Forest" signs on the one hand and be in a massive freeway on the other).

Sure I do!

Every time I drive up I-87 to the Lake Placid area or to Montreal I see such a sign while driving on an Interstate Highway. And for most of my life there were at least 2 trips a year to the Lake Placid area.

[leemell]

Well, at least if there's one advantage about Cajon (at least, I think it's Cajon) at the moment traffic-wise, it is the presence of an 8-lane freeway through the pass (which was surreal to drive through one day...you have no idea how strange it is to see "National Forest" signs on the one hand and be in a massive freeway on the other). In an ideal world, there would be some serious talk about extending the I-15 RoW work through there, but I see probable speed limitations because of the curves.

I've been lead to believe that with the number of tracks and lanes of freeway already in the Cajon Pass there is scarcely any room for another ROW, plus the curves and gradient are almost forbidding.

[CHamilton]

...you have no idea how strange it is to see "National Forest" signs on the one hand and be in a massive freeway on the other).

Sure I do!

Every time I drive up I-87 to the Lake Placid area or to Montreal I see such a sign while driving on an Interstate Highway. And for most of my life there were at least 2 trips a year to the Lake Placid area.

In case anyone wasn't clear about how scenic I-87 was, this sign made sure we knew.

I saw this a lot in my days of living in VT. Is the sign still there?

[AlanB]

I saw this a lot in my days of living in VT. Is the sign still there?

Last I knew, yes. But it has been about a year now since I last went up that highway.

[johnny.menhennet]

Well, at least if there's one advantage about Cajon (at least, I think it's Cajon) at the moment traffic-wise, it is the presence of an 8-lane freeway through the pass (which was surreal to drive through one day...you have no idea how strange it is to see "National Forest" signs on the one hand and be in a massive freeway on the other). In an ideal world, there would be some serious talk about extending the I-15 RoW work through there, but I see probable speed limitations because of the curves.

Palmdale makes sense for SoCal, but if CAHSR comes together it also makes sense for the Bay Area...again, you wouldn't get to the massive 90% market takeover that the Acela has WAS-NYP, but with a good link, DX could probably take 1/3 or so.

By the way, I'm just wondering...seeing as DX is a single line, does anyone want to take a ballpark swing at the ridership DX would need to simply cover operating expenses? This comes up because...well, I may be overly skeptical, but $89/RT (or basically $45/seat) is what they're boasting for probable prices. That is...somewhere around 1/3 what the Acela generates, and I know that those operating expenses will face a decent amount of debt service ($40 million in interest per billion lent, assuming a 4% interest rate).

As to the train situation from the southern ends of the region, I'm wondering about yet another possibility: If DX can get their line into LAX, how effective would the Surfliners be as a feeder line? I don't see a long Metrolink ride as a workable substitute here, but (assuming that they are a bit more comfortable, plus the presence of OBS) to what extent would the Surfliners serve as a good traffic driver and/or benefit from such a link?

Edit: Ok, assuming an $8bn loan at 4%, and assuming an average ticket cost of $45/seat, DX would need to sell 7.1 million tickets per year (or host close to 3.6 million round trips per year) to cover the $320m in loan interest. Put another way, they'd need to be running 10,000 round trips/20,000 one-ways per day just to cover the interest. I can't speak to operating expenses, but that right there requires filling about 50 400-seat trains per day (25 in each direction) at the purported ticket prices just to cover interest.

With a quick speed, a stop in Victorville, Palmdale, Santa Clarita, the San Fernando Valley, and Downtown LA, I could realistically see about 2 -2.5 million a year, assuming many frequencies as well. Not so sure about the Surfliners, but marketed correctly and continued reliability and incremental speed improvements, it could work for some. I would not give it a bonus of more than 1/4 million in added ridership to the DXpress. When you look at a map, the route actually would be somewhat backtracking to get to LA from Fullerton.

Also, you get used to driving through nature reserves and open spaces on huge freeways. Just south of me, an intersection called The Merge has 23 lanes at the widest point, while right alongside a lagoon. There are multiple lagoons crossed by 12, 10, and 8 lane freeways (just the 5, really). All of our freeways out of SoCal go through forests in mountain passes. Tejon, Cajon, Soledad, and more.

With the DXpress going through Cajon, it would not be the curves that would hurt it. Compared to freeways and passes over the rest of SoCal, the turns are wide and sweeping, never very sharp. What would be the problems are the grades on the freeway RoW, reaching 6%. Electric trains could handle 3%, but I don't think 6 would be ok.