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#1461 jis

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Posted 07 February 2017 - 12:30 PM

An interesting article in NY Times:

 

https://www.nytimes....collection&_r=0



#1462 neroden

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Posted 07 February 2017 - 08:12 PM

In other words, Miami is going to have to be so profitable that it can offset all the costs at Orlando, plus the costs of running a railroad, plus make a profit.
 
Is that realistic?

Yes, at least until Miami sinks under the waves. The passenger service is probably roughly a breakeven operation, probably a bit better than breakeven, maybe a bit worse. The value of the real estate in Miami will shoot up when it's connected to Orlando and to to the Orlando airport which has more flights than the Miami Airport IIRC.

It might even make sense to extend it to Tampa just to attract visitors from Tampa to Miami.

If I were them, I'd actually be selectively buying up property along potential station locations on the route to Tampa, probably through a vaguely-named subsidiary.

Edited by neroden, 07 February 2017 - 08:16 PM.

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#1463 brianpmcdonnell17

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Posted 07 February 2017 - 08:41 PM

In other words, Miami is going to have to be so profitable that it can offset all the costs at Orlando, plus the costs of running a railroad, plus make a profit.
 
Is that realistic?

Yes, at least until Miami sinks under the waves. The passenger service is probably roughly a breakeven operation, probably a bit better than breakeven, maybe a bit worse. The value of the real estate in Miami will shoot up when it's connected to Orlando and to to the Orlando airport which has more flights than the Miami Airport IIRC.

It might even make sense to extend it to Tampa just to attract visitors from Tampa to Miami.

If I were them, I'd actually be selectively buying up property along potential station locations on the route to Tampa, probably through a vaguely-named subsidiary.

While I would really like to see it extended to Tampa, I doubt they will be able to buy much if any real estate along that route. It is in a highway median, largely through already developed areas. In addition, Brightline seems to prefer to have an express service, so it is possible Tampa would be the only stop. If Tampa Union Station is used, there is some available real estate nearby, although it's urban location will likely make it expensive. While the routing into the station must be figured out, Union Station seems like the logical location to terminate potential future Brightline service. The only areas other than Tampa that I could possibly foresee getting a station on a Tampa extension are Lakeland and near Disney World.
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#1464 Metra Electric Rider

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 01:57 PM

Aren't they more concerned with developing land they already own rather than newly purchased property?


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#1465 Brian_tampa

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 07:30 PM

It's been a while since I posted, but here goes.

To the thought that Jacksonville is guaranteed first expansion city before Tampa, consider this. Maybe the access agreement that AAF signed with FECR was done with the knowledge that Fortress was considering selling FECR to a separate entity and Fortress wanted to protect AAF'S future expansion by signing an agreement with a sister company? On the other hand, AAF has been closely working the past few years with FDOT to preserve the rail ROW in the median of I4 between FL528 near Orlando and downtown Tampa...


Orlando expansion will happen before Jacksonville. As other posters have stated, the project is not doable without the traffic that Orlando will generate. Remember the invester grade report that FECI commissioned back in 2012? That wasn't for nothing folks. They know where the passengers are going to be. It isn't necessarily Miami to Jacksonville, sorry.

@Metra Electric Rider yes, FECI owns alot of land in S Florida and along the FECR. But, I've done research a couple of years ago and can say that AAF/FECI has bought ALOT of additional properties within a mile of their stations in FLL and WPB. FECI is a real estate development company. They aren't going to just sit on what they have.

In regards to Tampa, they will NOT ever use TUS as their terminal. It's hard to gain access to, and given CSX'S recent history with the TECO streetcar crossing, they are very opposed to additional passenger trains on or crossing their line through Ybor City to Lakeland. AAF will build a station closer to I275 and Florida Ave where there is alot of state and city owned empty land. I can foresee some deals made between FECI/AAF and the governments to redevelop that area. It's the last relatively empty part of downtown Tampa left that has easy access to the rail ROW in the median of I4. And the local bus transit center/hub is next door, along with the potential for a future light rail line going west to the airport and Pinellas County and the beaches.

One last observation, on the construction plans for the Orlando segment why is the new AAF right of way referenced with mile markings that show Mile 90+ something at the Orlando airport? And the numbers increase going east! I've always wondered if that meant anything and where exactly would Mile 0 be? ;)

Edited by Brian_tampa, 08 February 2017 - 07:36 PM.


#1466 Brian_tampa

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 08:01 PM

On a side note, I just read this article in the WPB paper about impacts on traffic and trains caused by Trump's visits to his mansion on Palm Beach island.

http://postonpolitic...sh-hour-friday/

Obviously this will impact Brightline as well as FECR for the next 4 years. It already has caused delays for TriRail. Can you imagine closing 8 lane I95 down in both directions during a Friday afternoon rush hour for at least 30 minutes? Wow.... what is Trump thinking? Lol

#1467 brianpmcdonnell17

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 05:08 AM

One last observation, on the construction plans for the Orlando segment why is the new AAF right of way referenced with mile markings that show Mile 90+ something at the Orlando airport? And the numbers increase going east! I've always wondered if that meant anything and where exactly would Mile 0 be? ;)


Considering that FEC is headquartered in the Jacksonville area, that is probably mile 0. Since the tracks will curve away from mile 0 at Cocoa, it makes sense to have the numbers increase rather than decrease.
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#1468 jis

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 09:15 AM

Just a reality check ...

 

Distance between Jacksonville and Cocoa is 152 miles by road

 

Distance between Cocoa and Orlando is about 38 miles by road

 

Distance between Tampa and Orlando Airport is about 84 miles by road

 

So I have no idea where the 90+ comes from.

 

Incidentally Cocoa to New Smyrna Beach where FEC has a large establishment is about 52 miles, which added to the 38 miles to OIA brings the number close to 90. Just an observation, nothing more.



#1469 brianpmcdonnell17

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 09:56 AM

Just a reality check ...
 
Distance between Jacksonville and Cocoa is 152 miles by road
 
Distance between Cocoa and Orlando is about 38 miles by road
 
Distance between Tampa and Orlando Airport is about 84 miles by road
 
So I have no idea where the 90+ comes from.
 
Incidentally Cocoa to New Smyrna Beach where FEC has a large establishment is about 52 miles, which added to the 38 miles to OIA brings the number close to 90. Just an observation, nothing more.


According to Wikipedia, St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles by rail. That would put OIA at 98 miles. I believe FEC was once headquartered in St. Augustine so it is possible that St. Augustine could be milepost 0.
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#1470 Brian_tampa

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 10:48 AM

On the drawings I'm referring to, the miles increase as the route goes toward Cocoa. That's what I'm confused about. Unless they are assuming tracks to Tampa will be built sometime later. The drawings are in the FEIS.

Edit: drawings not in FEIS, I have them saved somewhere so I will find them. It might have been part of a presentation to the GOAA board.

Edited by Brian_tampa, 09 February 2017 - 01:01 PM.


#1471 jis

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 11:15 AM

According to Wikipedia, St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles by rail. That would put OIA at 98 miles. I believe FEC was once headquartered in St. Augustine so it is possible that St. Augustine could be milepost 0.

Now I am completely confused. If St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles, how would OIA be at 98 miles? Are you sure you have got your geography straight?

Interestingly St. Augustine to Cocoa is 119 miles by I-95. I had no idea that FEC was windy enough between those two points to add 17 additional miles!

On the drawings I'm referring to, the miles increase as the route goes toward Cocoa. That's what I'm confused about. Unless they are assuming tracks to Tampa will be built sometime later. The drawings are in the FEIS.

That is mot definitely a very interesting observation!

Edited by jis, 09 February 2017 - 11:16 AM.


#1472 brianpmcdonnell17

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 12:49 PM

According to Wikipedia, St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles by rail. That would put OIA at 98 miles. I believe FEC was once headquartered in St. Augustine so it is possible that St. Augustine could be milepost 0.

Now I am completely confused. If St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles, how would OIA be at 98 miles? Are you sure you have got your geography straight?

Interestingly St. Augustine to Cocoa is 119 miles by I-95. I had no idea that FEC was windy enough between those two points to add 17 additional miles!

On the drawings I'm referring to, the miles increase as the route goes toward Cocoa. That's what I'm confused about. Unless they are assuming tracks to Tampa will be built sometime later. The drawings are in the FEIS.

That is mot definitely a very interesting observation!

I got 98 miles because if Brightline tracks to OIA only connect going south at Cocoa I thought maybe they would count down from Cocoa to Orlando since it is railroad north. That would allow no milepost changes all the way from Orlando to Miami. I realize that Orlando is not 98 miles from St. Augustine. Orlando is 38 miles from milepost 136, making it 98. Basically the mileposts revolve around Cocoa even though it is not Mile 0. I don't know if a railroad has ever designed mileposts in this way or not.
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#1473 jis

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 01:34 PM

The miles are marked from 99 (Orlando Airport Intermodal Center) to 138.5 (Cocoa junction with FEC), and The Cocoa Junction is at about mile 170 of FEC, which is clearly miles from JAX.

 

So where that 99 to 139 comes from for the East - West track still remains a mystery. The closest I can figure is Tampa Airport to Orlando Airport which is about 92 miles by road. It is conceivable that the feasible high speed rail alignment would be 7 miles longer for some reason.

 

I guess I will have to ask Rusty about it the next time I speak to him.



#1474 jis

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Posted 15 February 2017 - 06:25 PM

The owner of FEC Railroad and AAF/Brightline (via FECI) - Fortress Group, was just purchased by the Japanese SoftBank. Impact of this on things like Brightline can only be positive is the general scuttlebutt, since SoftBank has huge amounts of investment money parked waiting to be deployed. The connection between this and the Abe-Trump meetings is also potentially interesting.

 

https://finance.yaho...-000453567.html



#1475 Metra Electric Rider

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 02:18 PM

The owner of FEC Railroad and AAF/Brightline (via FECI) - Fortress Group, was just purchased by the Japanese SoftBank. Impact of this on things like Brightline can only be positive is the general scuttlebutt, since SoftBank has huge amounts of investment money parked waiting to be deployed. The connection between this and the Abe-Trump meetings is also potentially interesting.

 

https://finance.yaho...-000453567.html

 

 

Were YOU dining at Mar-a-Lago that fateful night, JIS?


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#1476 jis

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 02:28 PM

:) My lips are sealed :P



#1477 VentureForth

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 01:47 PM

Well, the Japanese are extremely knowledgeable about integrating retail and railroad, though Softbank only had a stint with railroad communications early in its life.

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#1478 cirdan

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 04:31 AM

This is early days and we don't yet know why Softbank bought Fortress Group and what they want to do with it.

 

Quite possibly this has nothing whatsoever to do with Brightline and it may not have any effect whatsoever.



#1479 jis

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Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:14 AM

Article on Brightline in Trains Magazine with some nice photos ...

 

http://trn.trains.co...with-brightline



#1480 jis

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 01:20 PM

According to reliable source posting on trainroders, the second Brightline train set will leave Sacramento tomorrow (Thursday 3/2/17) and head by the way of Los Angeles, New Orleans, and Jacksonville to the Brightline West Palm beach facility. Most of the move will be on UP until it is handed over to FEC at Jacksonville, with power change happening most likely at Bowden Yard.






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