I'm quite alright with seeing the thread start to split...right now we're approaching 2000 posts; more to the point, we have a "live" service that (as noted above) may be subject to all sorts of issues.
On the article: I tend to agree that WPB-FLL is a dubious "viable segment" as a stand-alone service, though it's also worth noting that taking 50 riders per train, presuming 22 trains/day (11 round-trips), and multiplying by 365 gives an annual ridership of just over 400k riders (and annual revenue in the range of about $5.5m, based on ridership distribution...I'm having to guess at revenue figures just a little bit, but $17.50/Select ticket and $10/Smart ticket at the ratios given in the article gives $5,339,950). I cannot speak to costs, but this is almost definitely not covering them. Worth noting is that Brightline has already bumped Select pricing; there will probably be further bumps (closing in on a "full" dynamic pricing model).
However, it does seem likely on this basis that MIA-FLL-WPB should bump those levels much closer to a million riders per year (WPB-MIA in an hour is a very substantial offering), something which would probably at least get the service reasonably close to break-even (since I'm going to guess that per-passenger revenue would also bump substantially).
Edit: Let's play with some numbers, shall we? Let's presume that, with three-station service, Brightline gets the following breakdown in ridership:
-350k WPB-FLL (a modest reduction from current numbers)
Select pricing goes to $15-30 WPB-FLL (average price $22), $15-25 MIA-FLL (average price $20), and $20-40 MIA-FLL (average price $30). Overall, Select ridership drops to about 25% of ridership (though it's closer to 35% for the full-length market).
Smart pricing becomes slightly dynamic, going to $10-15 for either WPB-FLL (avg $12.50) or FLL-MIA (avg $12.00) and $15-20 WPB-MIA (avg $17.50).
By segment, we'd get the following:
-WPB-FLL: 75k Select ($1.65m), 275k Smart ($3.44m)
-FLL-MIA: 60k Select ($1.20m), 290k Smart ($3.48m)
-WPB-MIA: 140k Select ($4.20m), 260k Smart ($4.55m)
Overall revenue would be sitting at $18.52m/yr at that point.
I have no idea how reasonable this is or how far it would go towards covering costs.
Edited by Anderson, 03 May 2018 - 05:07 AM.