169 replies to this topic

[NAVYBLUE]

http://www.floridato...l-going-happen-


I saw this while looking up another rail subject and checked back to 1/6-1/12 and didn't see it posted anywhere. More tracks=more trips=more AGR points. Maybe Mica likes trains, especially if they are in his home state.

NAVYBLUE

[Acela150]

There is nothing holding us back??? I can name two things... John Mica and the current Governor who rejected High Speed Rail funding... If this happens the world is ending if you ask me....

[afigg]

There is nothing holding us back??? I can name two things... John Mica and the current Governor who rejected High Speed Rail funding... If this happens the world is ending if you ask me....

There have been a number of recent news articles on the prospects of service over the FEC. In one of them as I recall, Congressman Mica was advocating that FL have someone else run the FEC corridor service than Amtrak. As for Governor Scott, he canceled the FL HSR project to satisfy his Tea partier backers and got quite a lot of blowback for it. He went ahead with the SunRail commuter rail project which is costing a lot more than the FEC corridor project.

It looks that restoring passenger service over the FEC is indeed going happen, but it will take 3 years to start up at a minimum.

[rrdude]

Color me the perpetual skeptic when it comes to adding Amtrak service. However, I do think FEC service will start-up, sometime. I just hope I'm alive to see it. No really, I think a five-year window is possible, and "maybe probably".

Florida has a lot of retirees, and many of these are active, and many of them still have political connections. Let's remember that we are talking about Amtrak here, overseen by politicians, not business people.

[saxman]

Maybe Mica likes trains, especially if they are in his home state.

NAVYBLUE

Mica only seems to like high speed trains on the Northeast Corridor, and no place else, it seems. You'd think he would support rail in his own state.

[trainviews]

Maybe Mica likes trains, especially if they are in his home state.

NAVYBLUE

Mica only seems to like high speed trains on the Northeast Corridor, and no place else, it seems. You'd think he would support rail in his own state.

I think it sort of sums it up to say that Mica pays lip service to trains, hates Amtrak, likes pork for his home district and hates Obama.

So he's been a supporter of Sunrail (pork, not Amtrak), opponent of Florida HSR (Obama project, not directly in his district) and voicing support for NEC HSR if it can be wrested from Amtrak and attract sufficient private funds (the latter my very short summary of his somewhat shifting positions).

So as for the FEC he knows that it has pretty big local support, and probably bigger than the HSR ever had, which was more of a statewide high profile project. I do not have the boundries of his district here, but IIRC it is on or close to the east coast (Sun Rail runs through it I think). That is a plus on the pork balance. Another plus is that it is not directly an Obama/stimulus project.

Minus is getting another Amtrak train, so he's lobbying to get it outsourced to another operator. While I think an outsourced intercity train would be worth trying, the FEC is about the least feasible route you could pick. Amtrak already has major maintenance facilities and crew bases in the area and one of the two initial daily trains is planned to be part of the LD network. If outsourcing should be tried out pick a route like the HF or the Downeaster, that doesn't overlap with a LD route and has to have its own layover facilities anyway.

So he likely won't get that far with the outsourcing. Whether that is enough for him to do his best to kill it remains to be seen.

But in the end it's Scott and Florida lawmakers who have the hands on the handle. As for Scott he's a pretty spineless rightbend opportunist, and some of the same factors as with Mica is at play, along with his tremendous unpopularity. The killing of the HSR was part of his overreach to placate the republican base at the beginning of his term, but has been alienating everybody else. Not being a true beliver, but more of a panderer he might see it politically expedient to back a less iconic and locally popular train project signalling that it really wasn't zealotry or anti-Obamaism to kill the HSR - it was just killing the BAD project.

Which project would cost the state of Florida more money for capital costs or operating subsidies is really not that relevant.

So while I don't think Mica nor Scott will be spending much political capital to get the project running, I'm not sure either that they will spend it killing the project.

[AlanB]

So he's been a supporter of Sunrail (pork, not Amtrak), opponent of Florida HSR (Obama project, not directly in his district) and voicing support for NEC HSR if it can be wrested from Amtrak and attract sufficient private funds (the latter my very short summary of his somewhat shifting positions).

The only problem is that the Florida HSR wasn't an "Obama project." The Florida HSR line was designated so by President George H W Bush back in 1992, along with California's project and Wisconsin's project, as well as two others.

The killing of the HSR was part of his overreach to placate the republican base at the beginning of his term, but has been alienating everybody else. Not being a true beliver, but more of a panderer he might see it politically expedient to back a less iconic and locally popular train project signalling that it really wasn't zealotry or anti-Obamaism to kill the HSR - it was just killing the BAD project.

Except that he didn't placate the Republican base in Florida. He may have made the Tea Party happy; but he didn't make the Republican party happy. After Scott rejected the money, 16 Republican State Senators joined with 10 Democrats to form a veto proof majority in rebuking the Governor for his foolish decision. They also met with Sec. Trans. Ray LaHood to try to see if they could find a way around the Governor's rejection and they took him to court in an effort to force him to accept the money.

[VentureForth]

The Florida HSR project was a huge financial lability groin the beginning based on the false premise that Orlando and Tampa were the highest utilized Amtrak stations on the state (true, but not for passengers between the two).

Amtrak needs a single seat ride from the NEC to every city along Flagler's line. After all, Flagler all but created most those towns with passenger rail.

In addition to Amtrak running the FEC, Florida should run about three more trains in both directions from Jax to Mia...maybe even Homestead if the tracks go that fast South.

My only concern its that I don't want to see two Jacksonville train stations like Richmond, now do I want to see lightly traveled but highly enthusiastic Palatka ignored or bypassed.

[Ocala Mike]

My only concern its that I don't want to see two Jacksonville train stations like Richmond, now do I want to see lightly traveled but highly enthusiastic Palatka ignored or bypassed.

Second that about Palatka. It's basically my "home" station going N/B (Deland going S/B). I won't ride an Ambus.


Ocala Mike

[MikefromCrete]

The Florida HSR project was a huge financial lability groin the beginning based on the false premise that Orlando and Tampa were the highest utilized Amtrak stations on the state (true, but not for passengers between the two).

Amtrak needs a single seat ride from the NEC to every city along Flagler's line. After all, Flagler all but created most those towns with passenger rail.

In addition to Amtrak running the FEC, Florida should run about three more trains in both directions from Jax to Mia...maybe even Homestead if the tracks go that fast South.

My only concern its that I don't want to see two Jacksonville train stations like Richmond, now do I want to see lightly traveled but highly enthusiastic Palatka ignored or bypassed.

Why would there be two stations in Jacksonville?

[Ocala Mike]

Not totally sure about the geography, but I believe that the present Amtrak station is on the "CSX" side of town, quite a distance from the "FEC" side of town. Not sure if there's a convenient connector.


Ocala Mike

[THE CJ]

Not totally sure about the geography, but I believe that the present Amtrak station is on the "CSX" side of town, quite a distance from the "FEC" side of town. Not sure if there's a convenient connector.


Ocala Mike

That is true. As for the FEC line well don't know if you or anyone else here is aware of this. http://www.metrojack...e-inexpensively

Now I don't know if the FEC line is closer to the original Jacksonville terminal or not.

Edited by THE CJ, 15 January 2012 - 06:34 PM.

[jphjaxfl]

The FEC crosses the St. John's River in downtown Jacksonville and passes the former Union Terminal where it instersects with CSX. Keep in mind that most all Atlantic Coast Line Trains from New York & the Midwest to Miami switched from ACL to FEC. The Silvers & Autotrain use the former ACL from Savannah to Jacksonville. Most of the former Seaboard Airline line has been abandoned. The change toFEC will require no track changes inJAX._

[afigg]

For anyone interested, here are the documents and reports for the FY2010 Florida DOT HSIPR application. Lot of documents and information on what the 2010 plan was if someone wants to dive in. FL applied for $250 million of federal funds to be matched with $123 million of state funds.

The application was for 3 phases. Phase 1 was for $250 million for track upgrades, connecting cross-over and new stations to start service with a Silver Star split at Jacksonville and a once daily Miami-Jacksonville corridor train. Amtrak agreed to supply the equipment for the corridor train. The $250 million also covered track upgrades for 90 mph speeds. Phases 2 & 3 were for $140 million to buy rolling stock to add 3 daily Miami-Cocoa trains and then a Phase 3 Jacksonville-Cocoa train.

If Florida has $118 million of state funding to work with and no federal funds, the plan might be trimmed back to postpone upgrades for 90 mph speeds until later, but enough to get service started. Amtrak could offer to supply Horizon cars in 3-4 years, maybe enough to run several daily round-trip trains, on a longer term interim basis until Florida can raise the funds or get federal funding to buy new rolling stock.

The benefit the FEC corridor offers to Amtrak is at several levels for the LD Silver trains. The FEC offers the chance to start up a corridor service where Amtrak already has facilities and stations at both endpoints. Not only would the Silver Star get a boost in passenger base and ridership to places up the coast to NYP, the cost of the facilities & support staff in Hileah and in Jacksonville could be spread between the LD and state supported corridor trains. Should help cut the support cost overhead for the Silvers and improve the cost recovery.

As for the Jacksonville station, I see references to plans for a Jacksonville Regional Transportation Center located at or near the site of the original Jacksonville station(?). It would be a intermodal station with Amtrak and Greyhound bus services. The Center apparently has been in the pre-development and talking stages for a long time, but the prospect for a version of it getting built should be greatly improved if the FEC corridor service project gets going.

[trainviews]

So he's been a supporter of Sunrail (pork, not Amtrak), opponent of Florida HSR (Obama project, not directly in his district) and voicing support for NEC HSR if it can be wrested from Amtrak and attract sufficient private funds (the latter my very short summary of his somewhat shifting positions).

The only problem is that the Florida HSR wasn't an "Obama project." The Florida HSR line was designated so by President George H W Bush back in 1992, along with California's project and Wisconsin's project, as well as two others.

I know that the Obama administration didn't come up with the plan - that's why it was shovelready when the money was there - but politically HSR has been one of Obama's signature projects. On a national level it clearly was seen as an Obama project and politically that's what counts.

The killing of the HSR was part of his overreach to placate the republican base at the beginning of his term, but has been alienating everybody else. Not being a true beliver, but more of a panderer he might see it politically expedient to back a less iconic and locally popular train project signalling that it really wasn't zealotry or anti-Obamaism to kill the HSR - it was just killing the BAD project.

Except that he didn't placate the Republican base in Florida. He may have made the Tea Party happy; but he didn't make the Republican party happy. After Scott rejected the money, 16 Republican State Senators joined with 10 Democrats to form a veto proof majority in rebuking the Governor for his foolish decision. They also met with Sec. Trans. Ray LaHood to try to see if they could find a way around the Governor's rejection and they took him to court in an effort to force him to accept the money.

That's why I wrote base and not party establishment. The same people that killed Crist in the primary, Tea Party and others. The rules in the Republican party has changed a lot over the past couple of years, and they have gotten a lot of power after being the establishments voting cattle for decades. So while most of the elected officials and the party establishment in Florida probably still is of a more mainstream conservative hue, the party base has gotten much more radical, and Scott himself was elected to power with their very active support.

[Anderson]

My understanding is that Scott isn't as opposed to this project for a variety of reasons, and that the money is already appropriated from FL's side, at least for the first phase.

Another point in this project's favor: When you look at the Florida 2006 Rail Plan (linked to at the site above), the FEC project is an integral part of it while the (totally disconnected) Orlando-Tampa project just doesn't come into the mix, and as far as I can tell, you get almost the same service speed between the two cities with the 110/125 MPH trains as you did with the bullet train. I hate to say it, but Disney's Ghost was a bad plan because of all sorts of flaws. Good concept, bad execution.

Another interesting point:
Per page 17 of the FL planning document from 2006, the project is expected to be self-sustaining. Also of interest is that the Star split is, per Amtrak's Silver Service PIP, expected to be net profitable. With all due respect to Amtrak, their numbers on page 9-4 seem oddly (or, to be blunt, almost stupidly) low. They're only projecting $17-18 per passenger on the Corridor train, which to be blunt is stupidly low unless they're expecting virtually all traffic to be "short hop" traffic. Assuming that their numbers are in the right ballpark on total ridership (86,800), if things come out in the same ballpark as the Pennsylvanian (PPR of $42.70), you get revenue of $3.7 million. Going with $35 (in the range of the San Joaquin, Wolverine, or Cascades), revenue would be in the $3.06 million range. The only routes with PPR figures in/below the $17-18 range are:
-The Downeaster ($13.76)
-The Capitol Corridor ($15.05)
-The Piedmont ($17.84)
-The Hiawatha ($18.25)
-The Pacific Surfliner ($19.85...and spiking quite sharply at the present)

In plain English, the only trains with those low PPR numbers are far shorter corridors. Even the Keystones (intercity commuter trains as well) are bringing in almost $22/passenger. The only thing I can really guess is that they must either be assuming virtually no traffic north of about West Palm Beach...something that their figures later in the presentation just don't bear out.

Edit:
Just throwing some "derived stats" (and thoughts) in from the Service Development Plan:
-The sleeping car stats estimate 15,800 passengers per year on the Star (5,000 snagged from the "main" Star and the Meteor). This would come out to 43.28/day or 21.64/train. From this, my best guess is that they're planning to run one sleeper in the FEC section and sell it out most of the time (21.64 would basically be right at capacity for a new Viewliner).
-Based on those same numbers, 132,700 riders in coach comes to 181.78/train (that is, (137,200/365)/2), or almost assuredly at least three and possibly four coaches. Per the explicit statement, they assume 2 (and indicate no cafe or diner, which screams **** to me)...I do not buy this number one bit, as they'd have to turn over a lot of traffic. I could buy this with a set of bilevels, but not with single-level equipment.
-Ok, more nuttiness in the document. Pull up attachment B. Apparently, the added Phase 2 corridor service south of Cocoa Beach is expected to lose several hundred sleeper passengers. On the one hand, as someone who does that sort of trip from time to time, I can understand the effect in theory. On the other hand, I don't think folks who are consciously choosing to take a private room from A to B are likely to be lured out by the offer of a cafe-only corridor train. Coach traffic? Absolutely. Sleeper traffic? Not likely.
--Also, the document makes absolutely no allowance for ridership ramp-up on the corridor above these numbers. Yes, I'll say it...as "mature" numbers, these seem absurdly low.
-Another interesting question here: How does this document assume that service from Cocoa-Tampa is going to look? Per the 2006 plan, there's supposed to be an Orlando-Cocoa "B-Line" (punning undoubtedly intended), but the document seems unclear on that. Attachment C mentions having a Tampa-Orlando HSR station co-located at Cocoa, but this seems odd because even had that project come to fruition, Phase II was (IIRC) likely to be completed outside the timeframe the report covers (i.e. up to 2020).
--Of course, a conecting Cocoa-Orlando-Tampa corridor train and/or having one (or more) Cocoa-terminating trains run on that rout can't help but help the FEC's numbers. Even a connecting train only generating moderate through-business would seem to provide a substantial boost to the FEC line's numbers.

Edited by Anderson, 15 January 2012 - 11:53 PM.

[jphjaxfl]

My understanding is that Scott isn't as opposed to this project for a variety of reasons, and that the money is already appropriated from FL's side, at least for the first phase.

Another point in this project's favor: When you look at the Florida 2006 Rail Plan (linked to at the site above), the FEC project is an integral part of it while the (totally disconnected) Orlando-Tampa project just doesn't come into the mix, and as far as I can tell, you get almost the same service speed between the two cities with the 110/125 MPH trains as you did with the bullet train. I hate to say it, but Disney's Ghost was a bad plan because of all sorts of flaws. Good concept, bad execution.

Another interesting point:
Per page 17 of the FL planning document from 2006, the project is expected to be self-sustaining. Also of interest is that the Star split is, per Amtrak's Silver Service PIP, expected to be net profitable. With all due respect to Amtrak, their numbers on page 9-4 seem oddly (or, to be blunt, almost stupidly) low. They're only projecting $17-18 per passenger on the Corridor train, which to be blunt is stupidly low unless they're expecting virtually all traffic to be "short hop" traffic. Assuming that their numbers are in the right ballpark on total ridership (86,800), if things come out in the same ballpark as the Pennsylvanian (PPR of $42.70), you get revenue of $3.7 million. Going with $35 (in the range of the San Joaquin, Wolverine, or Cascades), revenue would be in the $3.06 million range. The only routes with PPR figures in/below the $17-18 range are:
-The Downeaster ($13.76)
-The Capitol Corridor ($15.05)
-The Piedmont ($17.84)
-The Hiawatha ($18.25)
-The Pacific Surfliner ($19.85...and spiking quite sharply at the present)

In plain English, the only trains with those low PPR numbers are far shorter corridors. Even the Keystones (intercity commuter trains as well) are bringing in almost $22/passenger. The only thing I can really guess is that they must either be assuming virtually no traffic north of about West Palm Beach...something that their figures later in the presentation just don't bear out.

Edit:
Just throwing some "derived stats" (and thoughts) in from the Service Development Plan:
-The sleeping car stats estimate 15,800 passengers per year on the Star (5,000 snagged from the "main" Star and the Meteor). This would come out to 43.28/day or 21.64/train. From this, my best guess is that they're planning to run one sleeper in the FEC section and sell it out most of the time (21.64 would basically be right at capacity for a new Viewliner).
-Based on those same numbers, 132,700 riders in coach comes to 181.78/train (that is, (137,200/365)/2), or almost assuredly at least three and possibly four coaches. Per the explicit statement, they assume 2 (and indicate no cafe or diner, which screams **** to me)...I do not buy this number one bit, as they'd have to turn over a lot of traffic. I could buy this with a set of bilevels, but not with single-level equipment.
-Ok, more nuttiness in the document. Pull up attachment B. Apparently, the added Phase 2 corridor service south of Cocoa Beach is expected to lose several hundred sleeper passengers. On the one hand, as someone who does that sort of trip from time to time, I can understand the effect in theory. On the other hand, I don't think folks who are consciously choosing to take a private room from A to B are likely to be lured out by the offer of a cafe-only corridor train. Coach traffic? Absolutely. Sleeper traffic? Not likely.
--Also, the document makes absolutely no allowance for ridership ramp-up on the corridor above these numbers. Yes, I'll say it...as "mature" numbers, these seem absurdly low.
-Another interesting question here: How does this document assume that service from Cocoa-Tampa is going to look? Per the 2006 plan, there's supposed to be an Orlando-Cocoa "B-Line" (punning undoubtedly intended), but the document seems unclear on that. Attachment C mentions having a Tampa-Orlando HSR station co-located at Cocoa, but this seems odd because even had that project come to fruition, Phase II was (IIRC) likely to be completed outside the timeframe the report covers (i.e. up to 2020).
--Of course, a conecting Cocoa-Orlando-Tampa corridor train and/or having one (or more) Cocoa-terminating trains run on that rout can't help but help the FEC's numbers. Even a connecting train only generating moderate through-business would seem to provide a substantial boost to the FEC line's numbers.

There is currently no rail line from Cocoa to Orlando. I don't forsee one being built.

[Ryan]

I think it sort of sums it up to say that Mica pays lip service to trains, hates Amtrak, likes pork for his home district and hates Obama.

So he's been a supporter of Sunrail (pork, not Amtrak), opponent of Florida HSR (Obama project, not directly in his district) and voicing support for NEC HSR if it can be wrested from Amtrak and attract sufficient private funds (the latter my very short summary of his somewhat shifting positions).

That sounds pretty accurate to me, although I'm not sure that I would consider Sunrail "pork" (although that term has become pretty much useless, meaning "whatever spending I disagree with").

So as for the FEC he knows that it has pretty big local support, and probably bigger than the HSR ever had, which was more of a statewide high profile project. I do not have the boundries of his district here, but IIRC it is on or close to the east coast (Sun Rail runs through it I think). That is a plus on the pork balance. Another plus is that it is not directly an Obama/stimulus project.

You are correct:

[Ocala Mike]

Interesting boundaries; it appears that the Amtrak Autotrain station/facility in Sanford lies within it. Is that correct?


Ocala Mike

[jis]

My only concern its that I don't want to see two Jacksonville train stations like Richmond, now do I want to see lightly traveled but highly enthusiastic Palatka ignored or bypassed.

Just for running the service one does not need two stations in JAX. However, there are as usual a couple of issues to consider:

1. The current JAX station is out of the way and relatively difficult to get to by public transportation, specially at train times and on weekends. Also the current station does not have enough sidings to be able to handle a LD split and a short distance train storage simultaneously.

2. City of Jacksonville has been planning/campaigning to bring the original station, which now is a convention center, back into rail use. There is enough land available there which was originally occupied by rail where enough sidings can be constructed to store and split trains. If necessary.

3. The Convention Center sight is relatively well connected to the public transit system and is a reasonable walk from what is considered downtown. So all in all it is a better location, specially for commuter and short distance service.

4. Reaching the CSX line to Orlando from the proposed Convention Center Station requires a backup move and a crossing of the entire CSX/FEC interchange yard. So the railroads will probably frown upon it. This can be done by a longer backup move to the north end of the yard, but it is a relatively long backup move.

So a likely scenario is that the split of Silvers will take place at the current JAX station with the Orlando section following the current routing and missing the Convention Center station. The FEC section would run through and stop at the Convention Center station on its way to FEC. And of course the short distance trains would stop and be stored at Convention Center, and likely not run through all the way to the current JAX station.

I have tried above to summarize the logistics and politics of the Jacksonville station issue as I understand it. If someone from the area can provide a more upto date situation summary that would be most appreciated. I personally try to keep track of what is going on relative to this because in the next several years I plan to move to the Melbourne area which will be served by the FEC service.