Main Hurricane Discussion Thread

According to the latest forecasts, Irene will skirt the eastern coast of Florida and make landfall somewhere around Charleston about Friday. When will Amtrak start making announcements about service suspensions?

henryj said:

According to the latest forecasts, Irene will skirt the eastern coast of Florida and make landfall somewhere around Charleston about Friday. When will Amtrak start making announcements about service suspensions?

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As soon as CSX tells them so I presume. It is not Amtrak's call to make.

henryj said:

According to the latest forecasts, Irene will skirt the eastern coast of Florida and make landfall somewhere around Charleston about Friday. When will Amtrak start making announcements about service suspensions?

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When there is less uncertianty about the path Irene takes.

To quote the National Hurricane Center:

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE

FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.

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So that means it is likely at least a couple of days before anything is decided.

henryj said:

According to the latest forecasts, Irene will skirt the eastern coast of Florida and make landfall somewhere around Charleston about Friday. When will Amtrak start making announcements about service suspensions?

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Likely when and if there are any suspensions. How many times have you seen hurricane reports that changed by the minute? As a Red Cross volunteer, I was to be sent on one hurricane to Houston, then Florida west coast, then Florida east cost and ended up in Charleston. We were sent home after a day because the hurricane was a bust. Others actually went out to Houston and were moved over and over.

Don't sweat it. Think "I might not only have a train trip but a free ocean cruise thrown in!"

me_little_me said:

Don't sweat it. Think "I might not only have a train trip but a free ocean cruise thrown in!"

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Last time I had a run in with a hurricane on a planned Amtrak trip, it turned into a plane trip one way. And the darned plane ticket was cheaper than the Amtrak sleeper ticket, so you win some and you lose some. I would have preferred it to remain a train trip, but such was not to be, courtesy CSX. Of course the storm did not quite materialize as CSX had feared. But prudence is probably a good thing under such circumstances.

I hope this isn't the beginning of another never ending thread? When will the Silvers ever be reinstated!

jis said:

But prudence is probably a good thing under such circumstances.

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Yeah, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane comes to mind: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

Airlines are already cancelling flights to Miami. The storm is now 100mph winds and intensifying. Predictions are a cat 3 later this week. Looks like it will scrape the coast all the way from Miami to Charleston. It may go inland there or turn and go out to sea.

This storm is really ramping up now. 120mph winds. It has shifted a little east then back west to where it looks like it will make land fall in New York, possibly over Long Island. It could scrape along the NEC all the way from DC to New York and even New England. Unless it starts to shift out to sea you guys are in for a big hit.

Hi. Newbie Amtrak passenger here. Earlier this month I booked my first trip (from Newark Penn Station, NJ to Miami, FL) for this Sunday. Unfortunately, that will be the day Hurricane Irene whips through NJ. I haven't seen any service alerts concerning Irene(yet), but I've noticed this message when looking at ticket availability:

Problem with Availability: At least one portion of your trip is unavailable. Revise your travel dates and times so we may search for other available options. [Error ID: 578S]

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Both trains that day appear as sold out(Same for Friday and Saturday).
So here's my question: Is it genuinely sold out, possibly due to plane travelers facing imminent cancellations/serious delays and choosing the train as an alternative, or has Amtrak stopped taking reservations for those specific trips out of caution due to the weather?

antmisfit said:

or has Amtrak stopped taking reservations for those specific trips out of caution due to the weather?

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This.

Amtrak will be at the mercy of CSX, since they own the tracks. Crossing gates are usually removed in advance of a storm, as they make excellent missiles when the wind whips. No crossing gates, no trains.

If it's possible, I'd look at delaying your trip until Monday. Don't cancel your existing reservation in case the train runs, though.

You should call Amtrak. Odds are that the train will be canceled. Even if CSX tracks are open south of DC, nothing may be heading out of NYC and from Sunnyside Yard in Queens on Sunday. There is stong possibility that a category 2-3 hurricane will sweep up the coast and slam into Long Island on Sunday. A hurricane can cause wind damage with trees down over a huge area which means tracks will be fouled and power out. Possibly for days in some area. Sorry, your timing is not good.

afigg said:

You should call Amtrak. Odds are that the train will be canceled. Even if CSX tracks are open south of DC, nothing may be heading out of NYC and from Sunnyside Yard in Queens on Sunday. There is stong possibility that a category 2-3 hurricane will sweep up the coast and slam into Long Island on Sunday. A hurricane can cause wind damage with trees down over a huge area which means tracks will be fouled and power out. Possibly for days in some area. Sorry, your timing is not good.

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This is what I'm afraid of. The last two evenings I have called Amtrak, only getting an automated customer service system instead of a live agent, and there was no indication of the trip being cancelled. It's quite frustrating. I'll call again in the morning to possibly reschedule for Monday, but that really cuts into my vacation time.

antmisfit said:

afigg said:

You should call Amtrak. Odds are that the train will be canceled. Even if CSX tracks are open south of DC, nothing may be heading out of NYC and from Sunnyside Yard in Queens on Sunday. There is stong possibility that a category 2-3 hurricane will sweep up the coast and slam into Long Island on Sunday. A hurricane can cause wind damage with trees down over a huge area which means tracks will be fouled and power out. Possibly for days in some area. Sorry, your timing is not good.

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This is what I'm afraid of. The last two evenings I have called Amtrak, only getting an automated customer service system instead of a live agent, and there was no indication of the trip being cancelled. It's quite frustrating. I'll call again in the morning to possibly reschedule for Monday, but that really cuts into my vacation time.

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I suspect that many other people are also doing the same, that is to say picking up the phone to call Amtrak and find out what's going to happen with trains up & down the east coast this weekend. No doubt that is adding to the call volume.

When you do get Julie to answer, just say "agent" to speak with a live person and to see what if any info they have. But be prepared to hold for a while as again I'm sure call volumes will be high tomorrow. If at all possible, call very early in the morning or late in the evening (east coast times that is) to try and avoid some of the volume.

AlanB said:

When you do get Julie to answer, just say "agent" to speak with a live person and to see what if any info they have. But be prepared to hold for a while as again I'm sure call volumes will be high tomorrow. If at all possible, call very early in the morning or late in the evening (east coast times that is) to try and avoid some of the volume.

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Thanks for the info. Will be doing that early in the morning.

henryj said:

This storm is really ramping up now. 120mph winds. It has shifted a little east then back west to where it looks like it will make land fall in New York, possibly over Long Island. It could scrape along the NEC all the way from DC to New York and even New England. Unless it starts to shift out to sea you guys are in for a big hit.

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At present predictions are that Jersey Shore and parts of Long Island might see wind speeds upto 85mph. Where I live predictions are 50 to 70mph. NEC in NJ falls mostly in that range. The bigger worry is Storm Surge up through the Varrazano Narrows into New York Harbor. There is some serious prep going on to evacuate ares that would get inundated should a 10+' surge materialize. You can bet that Hoboken station will look like a lake with even much less.

Here are the current projection pictures as of 2am EDT 0600Zulu:

Ensemble path:



Wind speeds:



The eye will be abeam of New York around 80 hours into the chart, but the damaging winds arrive ahead of the eye.

There will be considerable flooding caused just by an additional dump of rain on ground that is essentially completely saturated already.

If service is suspended on the NEC does this mean Amtrak will take six years to restore service as in the Sunset east? If Sunyside is affected doesn't this also suspend all trains to Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Atlanta as well as the Florida trains? If all those trains are suspended, Amtrak could even turn a profit this year.

Leaving from Lorto, Va to Sanford, FL on the Autotrain on Sunday -- I'm wondering about the status of my trip too...any input appreciated.

At this point, it is safe to say that Irene will have a considerable impact on Amtrak operations in NC, Virginia, the NEC, the Empire corridor to Albany, and in New England. If Irene makes landfall as a hurricane near NYC or western end of Long Island, people should be prepared for NEC operations to be disrupted for days. Since it has been a long time since a hurricane has hit near NYC or New England for that matter, I suspect a lot of people - despite all the warning from officials and serious over-dosage of wall to wall coverage on the Weather Channel and the cable news channels - in the NYC region and southern New England will think the storm will be like a Nor'easter. No, it won't. It will be a Nor'easter times 10 with a storm surge. If Irene hits at hurricane strength, the storm surge, heavy rain, and possible tornadoes being spun off, will do a lot of damage.

I'm wondering what Amtrak plans are in case a hurricane threatens to hit the Queens area and Sunnyside Yard. Would Amtrak move the extra Amfleet and Heritage cars on a dead head equipment move to Philadelphia, Harrisburg, or even Albany? Maybe move some Acelas to Philadelphia? If Sunnyside Yard gets flooded or hit by high winds, they may want to limit the amount of equipment in the path of the storm. This could lead to Amtrak canceling a lot of service on the NEC on Saturday ahead of the storm to move equipment out of the way.

Website for detailed hurricane tracking info for those interested:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground with maps showing the projected tracks of the different models: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_model.html

To the Moderator: perhaps we should have one main Irene thread and rename this one "Irene headed to the Northeast".

Amber said:

Leaving from Lorto, Va to Sanford, FL on the Autotrain on Sunday -- I'm wondering about the status of my trip too...any input appreciated.

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CSX may be shutting down operations on their tracks in North Carolina and eastern Virginia over the weekend. As posted above, call Amtrak.

Irene will be disrupting travel along the eastern seaboard. I would expect the airlines are also making plans to cancel many, if not all flights out of the airports on a broad sweep from DC to Boston on late Saturday, Sunday and into Monday.

Amber said:

Leaving from Lorto, Va to Sanford, FL on the Autotrain on Sunday -- I'm wondering about the status of my trip too...any input appreciated.

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Most likely it will be cancelled or seriously delayed. I've noticed now on Amtrak's site that reservations are listed as "sold out" from Friday all the way to Wednesday next week. I've canceled my reservation for Sunday, because it's become quite clear that it's going to get too dangerous on the tracks this weekend to risk going anywhere. I'm quite peeved about it, though. I won't be able to go on vacation again until next year, and I was really looking forward to Miami next week.

henryj said:

If service is suspended on the NEC does this mean Amtrak will take six years to restore service as in the Sunset east? If Sunyside is affected doesn't this also suspend all trains to Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Atlanta as well as the Florida trains? If all those trains are suspended, Amtrak could even turn a profit this year.

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Smoked some strong stuff last night eh? :giggle:

So far projections appear to be that Irene will be a borderline hurricane at best by the time it gets to New York, in which case it will really be more like a Noreaster. But it is really too early to tell. We will have a much better projection in another 24 to 36 hours.

I'm supposed to be going to New York City this weekend. Now, with predictions of coastal and urban flooding, high winds, and power outages, I'm wondering whether I should cancel.

I'm also worried about my return trip (on Monday) from NYP to NCR. If the NEC is severely impacted on Sunday, how big a chance will there be that service has not been restored by Monday afternoon?

Autotrain Lorton-Sanford canceled Friday, Saturday and Sunday so far -- just got off the phone with Amtrak.