36 replies to this topic

[PetalumaLoco]

Adding to the mystery:
<H1 class=head _extended="true" itxtvisited="1">Two Air France Passenger Names Probed for Terror Links</H1>
http://www.foxnews.c...,525642,00.html

From the above news story;

While it is certain that there were computer malfunctions, terrorism has not been ruled out.

Were they running Vista?

[jis]

The black (orange) boxes have not been found yet. The current conjecture according to press conferences and news releases from the French invetigating authority apparently is that the plane did not break upin mid-air. It crashed into the Ocean at very great vertical speed and broke up upon impact.

[jis]

The Flight Data Recorder has been found and retrieved. The Cockpit Voice Recorder has not been found yet. But the FDR is in relatively good shape and data recovered from it will be absolutely invaluable to get a better understanding of what happened, and hence to make changes so as to reduce the likelihood of recurrence.

Edited by jis, 03 May 2011 - 08:06 AM.

[jis]

And now the Cockpit Voice Recorder has also been found. This should enable a complete reconstruction of what happened.

[MrFSS]

And now the Cockpit Voice Recorder has also been found. This should enable a complete reconstruction of what happened.

Jishnu - how long do you think it will be before the results are made public?

[Ryan]

I think that a lot of it depends on what they find. If there's an obvious smoking gun like one of the pilots saying "Holy crap, we just got struck by lightning and everything quit working", then it'll be a lot sooner than if the data is all mangled up and needs work.

I would think that weeks into months is about the right time scale, but I'll defer to those with more knowledge. I just hope that there's enough data there to give us a good feeling about what went wrong, and if there are any changes that can be made to help prevent it from happening again.

[jis]

Normally it takes anywhere between 6 months to a couple of years. My hunch is that this is a complicated one and will take a while. The outcome may be as drastic as significant change in procedures for going past tropical storm lines etc. that may have significant impact on some schedules and routes even.

I get the impression that thunderstorms over Indian Ocean specially during Monsoon, are the worst, and much worse than typical ones in the Atlantic. The phenomenon of "Black Rain" is peculiar to that part of the world. So trans Indian Ocean flights may be the ones more affected than the trans-equatorial Atlantic and Pacific flights.

[jis]

Discussion on airliners.net suggests now that initial data from CVR and FDR should be available within four weeks. Of course the complete analysis etc. will take much longer.

There are some interesting undercurrents about the credibility of the French investigative authority, which is accused by some of having tampered with data recorders in the past before handing them over to investigators. This allegation has been made specifically in connection with a Airbus 320 crash. So they are probably going to be extra cautious to make sure that no apparent impropriety or even appearance thereof happens this time.

[jis]

The third interim report is now out from BEA, and it give an event by event description of what happened with a complete time-line, and frankly it is scary reading. Seems like there were a series of individually recoverable events that cascaded together to lead to disaster with possibly inadequate pilot training and cockpit management playing a significant part.

The report can be found at: http://www.bea.aero/...llet2011.en.pdf

Safety Recommendations at: http://www.bea.aero/...llet2011.en.pdf

The passengers never knew anything was amiss since no announcements were made.

[Ryan]

There weren't any announcements, but I would guess that falling at 10,000 feet per minute that they knew that something wasn't right.

Absolutely terrifying - of course it's easy to think rationally about it while sitting at a comfortable desk.

[jis]

There weren't any announcements, but I would guess that falling at 10,000 feet per minute that they knew that something wasn't right.

Absolutely terrifying - of course it's easy to think rationally about it while sitting at a comfortable desk.

I wonder how much the passengers felt, other than a feeling of falling into an air pocket. Afterall even the pilots did not quite understand it, even with the altimeter whizzing away in front of them.

[saxman]

Early indications seem to be that the pitot tubes failed, possibly with ice. Pitot probes are always heated, so I'm sure we'll see something about that. Now the question is if the pilot flying responded correctly. The first thing a pilot learns is stall recovery, and the one thing they have to do is lower the nose, and add full power. The engines were operating normal. Several times the pilot flying raised the nose which upset the situation. It remains to be seen if he knew if they were in a stall. Obviously his airspeed information was not accurate.

Hopefully it's not the same as the Colgan crash in Buffalo. That was totally the pilots' fault.

[amtrakwolverine]

Another flight Birgenair Flight 301 crashed due to blocked pitot tubes. They can be blocked by other things then just ice.

Birgenair Flight 301 http://en.wikipedia....nair_Flight_301

[jis]

Early indications seem to be that the pitot tubes failed, possibly with ice. Pitot probes are always heated, so I'm sure we'll see something about that. Now the question is if the pilot flying responded correctly. The first thing a pilot learns is stall recovery, and the one thing they have to do is lower the nose, and add full power. The engines were operating normal. Several times the pilot flying raised the nose which upset the situation. It remains to be seen if he knew if they were in a stall. Obviously his airspeed information was not accurate.

Hopefully it's not the same as the Colgan crash in Buffalo. That was totally the pilots' fault.

The Thales Pitot Tubes were known to have this problem, and at least 10 other flights had experienced similar problem (and even in bad weather) (both Airbus and Boeing aircrafts) and recovered. That particular type of Pitot Tube is not used by any responsible airline any more. Air France was in the process of replacing them when this event occurred and even the very aircraft involved was supposed to get the replacement Pitot Tubes before its next flight! Some sections of the press have alleged that they and the French in general dragged their feet for a while since after all Thales is an upstanding French company. Just allegedly mind you. No matter which way you look at it, two and a half French companies are in a bit of a soup it would seem.

[jis]

What was finally determined to have happened to Air France 447 can be seen in this Popular Mechanics article. Extremely serious pilot error causing loss of control and stall. The aircraft itself would have recovered if the pilots had not lost situational awareness as completely as they apparently did.

And Here is the discussion thread on airliners.net.

Edited by jis, 10 December 2011 - 11:26 AM.

[jis]

Air France almost pulls off another stall!

http://www.flightglo...tactics-372060/

[PRR 60]

Air France almost pulls off another stall!

http://www.flightglo...tactics-372060/

Yikes!

What is the first thing taught in flight school? View and trust your instruments.