Future flooding for Empire Builder?

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PetalumaLoco

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While trying and trying to get on the phone with Amtrak this morning, when I finally got thru a recorded voice said the agents were very busy with an increase in calls due to bad weather. I hadn't heard about any train delays and I still haven't.

So I searched and came across a couple of news items regarding possible future flooding and preparation for it in North Dakota. Seems there's still a lot of snow around, later than normal, and if heavy Spring rains happen they're afraid of flooding. I wonder if people have been canceling and/or rebooking because of this?

Here's a news item about Devils Lake ND possible flooding and Amtrak.

Story here.

And here's a related story 2 days later.

Here's a general FEMA warning.

Let's hope it won't become a major problem, for Amtrak or the population.
 
While trying and trying to get on the phone with Amtrak this morning, when I finally got thru a recorded voice said the agents were very busy with an increase in calls due to bad weather. I hadn't heard about any train delays and I still haven't.
So I searched and came across a couple of news items regarding possible future flooding and preparation for it in North Dakota. Seems there's still a lot of snow around, later than normal, and if heavy Spring rains happen they're afraid of flooding. I wonder if people have been canceling and/or rebooking because of this?

Here's a news item about Devils Lake ND possible flooding and Amtrak.

Story here.

And here's a related story 2 days later.

Here's a general FEMA warning.

Let's hope it won't become a major problem, for Amtrak or the population.
Last week's storm dumped another 10 inches of snow on Fargo, temporarily closing I-94 for several hundred miles, so that won't help. This story from the AP indicates that they are expecting floods. Matters are helped by the fact that the ground was already saturated by heavy rains when it froze last November, and a January thaw filled many drainage ditches, which promptly refroze. Since the gradients are so small in the Red River Valley, drainage happens slowly.

In any case, though, I would expect a real thaw for several weeks yet, and there could easily be another blizzard or two this month or next.
 
I hope this doesn't effect my Empire Builder trip in a couple days. However, I use to live in ND and the Red River floods just about every year. Last time it got bad in 2006, when I was there, it hardly effected Amtrak at all. But it is true that ND got a a lot more snow than normal this year. So I'm crossing my fingers.
 
I hope this doesn't effect my Empire Builder trip in a couple days. However, I use to live in ND and the Red River floods just about every year. Last time it got bad in 2006, when I was there, it hardly effected Amtrak at all. But it is true that ND got a a lot more snow than normal this year. So I'm crossing my fingers.
I just saw a report on the Weather channel and they are expecting a crest of 50' over flood stage in Fargo within the week or so.
 
The latest report is for 40-foot flood crest in Fargo (less than the 50 Alan heard), but for it to come unexpectedly early.

Any ideas on how this may affect the Empire Builder Route??
The bridges across the Red River of the North (with the possible exception of I-94) are at about at stage 36' to 38'. So a flood at stage 40' will take all the bridges out of service, including the BNSF bridge used by the Empire Builder .
 
The latest report is for 40-foot flood crest in Fargo (less than the 50 Alan heard), but for it to come unexpectedly early.

Any ideas on how this may affect the Empire Builder Route??
The bridges across the Red River of the North (with the possible exception of I-94) are at about at stage 36' to 38'. So a flood at stage 40' will take all the bridges out of service, including the BNSF bridge used by the Empire Builder .
I am scheduled to travel from the Northwest to Chicago departing on 3/26 and Chicago to the Northwest on 3/29. Ticketed deluxe sleeper reservations. Bad timing. Timing was bad when I last tried to make the trip in mid-December and the EB was cancelled during the catostrophic snows.

If the Red River washes out or covers the track, what is Amtrak likely to do (and are ther past case studies to rely upon in making that assessment)? Might they cancel the EB, or would they run one EB up to the flood zone, and build a bus bridge around to a second train on the other side of the floods (both directions)?

I am starting to do contingency planning. I might go to California instead, but I would still need to EB to get to and from PDX to connect with the CS. Unfortunately all of the sleepers on the EB to PDX and CS are at mid-to upper bucket fares and a lot higher than I paid for the Chicago trip ($2,616 RT vs. $1,626). Both itineraries are in the 36-38 hour range total.
 
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I probably wouldn't panic just yet.

And it's hard to know just what Amtrak might do, especially since we don't yet know what might flood, what might get closed, much less what the freight hosts may do regarding any closures. I seem to recall though that last time Amtrak bussed around the flooding, but I won't swear to that.
 
I probably wouldn't panic just yet.
And it's hard to know just what Amtrak might do, especially since we don't yet know what might flood, what might get closed, much less what the freight hosts may do regarding any closures. I seem to recall though that last time Amtrak bussed around the flooding, but I won't swear to that.
Thanks Alan.

FYI. a CSA told me tonight that if there are flood related cancellations, they would likely honor my original fare on an alternative route to Chicago. Instead of eastbound on 8 to Chicago (36 hours) I would go westbound on the EB, connect with the CS, then travel east on the CZ (74 hours combined) . That's a long trip. You gotta like train travel. Good thing I would have a deluxe sleeper.
 
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I probably wouldn't panic just yet.
And it's hard to know just what Amtrak might do, especially since we don't yet know what might flood, what might get closed, much less what the freight hosts may do regarding any closures. I seem to recall though that last time Amtrak bussed around the flooding, but I won't swear to that.
Thanks Alan.

FYI. a CSA told me tonight that if there are flood related cancellations, they would likely honor my original fare on an alternative route to Chicago. Instead of eastbound on 8 to Chicago (36 hours) I would go westbound on the EB, connect with the CS, then travel east on the CZ (74 hours combined) . That's a long trip. You gotta like train travel. Good thing I would have a deluxe sleeper.
Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?
 
Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?
IIRC the flooding was longer and more severe downstream around Grand Forks that year, and trains 7 and 8 were rerouted on the Surrey cutoff, missing Grand Forks, Devils Lake, and Rugby.
 
Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?
IIRC the flooding was longer and more severe downstream around Grand Forks that year, and trains 7 and 8 were rerouted on the Surrey cutoff, missing Grand Forks, Devils Lake, and Rugby.
That would arguably be better than a bus bridge or cancellation; or rerouting my trip the long route on the CZ. Any idea what the Surrey cutoff detor might do to the Chicago arrival schedule? Is that a short or long detour? Or do I not understand the map and the Surrey cutoff would not be the fix for Fargo floods?
 
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Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?
IIRC the flooding was longer and more severe downstream around Grand Forks that year, and trains 7 and 8 were rerouted on the Surrey cutoff, missing Grand Forks, Devils Lake, and Rugby.
That would arguably be better than a bus bridge or cancellation; or rerouting my trip the long route on the CZ. Any idea what the Surrey cutoff detor might do to the Chicago arrival schedule? Is that a short or long detour? Or do I not understand the map and the Surrey cutoff would not be the fix for Fargo floods?
No, it wouldn't because you would still have to cross the Red River at Fargo, and that railroad bridge will be under water if the flood hits 40 ft. Flooding in the Red River moves from south to north as the thaw comes, and can be exacerbated or mitigated by local conditions, especially how fast the local snow melts. The worst scenario is heavy rain.

Maybe Amtrak can run the Empire Builder on a more northerly route through central Minnesota, partly over Canadian Pacific track, missing Fargo while it's flooding and crossing at Grand Forks while the river there is still relatively low, but that's really just a wild guess. I have no idea how the tracks connect, or what condition they're in.

Frankly, I always expect the worst (and occasionally am happily surprised), so I'd be concerned about your return trip, as it coincides with the now-predicted crest. Can or will Amtrak reschedule you through Sacramento?

Alas, since the Red River flows north, the flooding won't go away soon. I read here that the Red River is still frozen north of Grand Forks and at the Canadian border. I know that in 1997 the Red River finally dropped below flood stage in North Dakota only at the end of May.
 
Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?
IIRC the flooding was longer and more severe downstream around Grand Forks that year, and trains 7 and 8 were rerouted on the Surrey cutoff, missing Grand Forks, Devils Lake, and Rugby.
That would arguably be better than a bus bridge or cancellation; or rerouting my trip the long route on the CZ. Any idea what the Surrey cutoff detor might do to the Chicago arrival schedule? Is that a short or long detour? Or do I not understand the map and the Surrey cutoff would not be the fix for Fargo floods?
No, it wouldn't because you would still have to cross the Red River at Fargo, and that railroad bridge will be under water if the flood hits 40 ft. Flooding in the Red River moves from south to north as the thaw comes, and can be exacerbated or mitigated by local conditions, especially how fast the local snow melts. The worst scenario is heavy rain.

Maybe Amtrak can run the Empire Builder on a more northerly route through central Minnesota, partly over Canadian Pacific track, missing Fargo while it's flooding and crossing at Grand Forks while the river there is still relatively low, but that's really just a wild guess. I have no idea how the tracks connect, or what condition they're in.

Frankly, I always expect the worst (and occasionally am happily surprised), so I'd be concerned about your return trip, as it coincides with the now-predicted crest. Can or will Amtrak reschedule you through Sacramento?

Alas, since the Red River flows north, the flooding won't go away soon. I read here that the Red River is still frozen north of Grand Forks and at the Canadian border. I know that in 1997 the Red River finally dropped below flood stage in North Dakota only at the end of May.
Ispolkom- They have suggested they would honor my origin and return destinations through alternative routing (e.g. the CZ or SWC). The question is whether they will rebook me on a precautionary basis before the tracks are flooded or refuse to do so until the floods hit (and then there may or may not be sleeper space available on the 50 hour CZ). Ugh. Thanks for your analysis of the situation.

Update: I spoke with Customer Service and they spoke with Customer Support. Even though I can point them to this site http://fargofloods.com/

and other evidence of impending floods they will not transfer my reservation at the same fare until there is an actual flood and cancellation. By then, the CZ may be sold out.
 
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Update: I spoke with Customer Service and they spoke with Customer Support. Even though I can point them to this site http://fargofloods.com/and other evidence of impending floods they will not transfer my reservation at the same fare until there is an actual flood and cancellation. By then, the CZ may be sold out.
That is not a good position to be in. It seems that Amtrak is willfully ignoring the situation. I do not envy you your position, as you seem to be in for a much more, umm, interesting trip than you planned, or than I would have expected at the end of March. You could cancel your trip (for the second time), book something much more expensive, or you could end up traveling in much less comfort than you had paid for.

None of those are good options, and you have my sincere regrets.

It seems to me that the Empire Builder has had a miserable last twelve months. Last year there were the floods along the Mississippi last June -- I remember taking a #7 that originated in St. Paul, not Chicago. Then there was the meltdown (or rather freeze-up) in December that canceled your last trip. Now this. Good luck, jmbgeg, and let us know what happens!
 
I am also traveling on the Empire Builder from Chicago to Seattle and return starting on Friday March 27th and coming back on the 31st. This would put me through the areas of Fargo and Grand Forks the days the river is supposed to crest. I wonder if Amtrak might put people on other trains to get them to where they are going. Unfortunately I don't think the California Zephyr can connect in Sacramento with the Coast Starlight on the west bound side of my trip. I guess I will just have to try and play the next couple of days by ear. Amtrak should definately recognize the problem here and hopefully come up with a plan instead of just ignoring it.
 
Unfortunately I don't think the California Zephyr can connect in Sacramento with the Coast Starlight on the west bound side of my trip. I guess I will just have to try and play the next couple of days by ear.
Unless there is a huge delay encountered by the CZ going west, it always makes the connection with the CS going northbound. The CZ is due into SAC at 3:42 PM. The Starlight doesn't show up in SAC until around midnight, plenty of time for a connection.

Amtrak should definately recognize the problem here and hopefully come up with a plan instead of just ignoring it.
There is a difference between having a contingency plan in place and actually starting to rebook passengers until there actually is a problem. Most people don't like being inconvienced by a longer trip, especially if it turns out not to be necessary.

We see people killed by hurricanes because all to often the last 4 predictions were wrong, so everyone becomes complacent. Then when the big one does hit, no one moves because they figure that the predictions will be wrong again, and people die.

Now things are exactly life and death here with Amtrak, but still, one doesn't start actually rebooking people until it is 100% clear that there is going to be a problem. Remember, I saw a story a few days earlier that claimed a crest of 50 feet, now the latest reports are down to 40 feet. If the river comes in at 35, then there is no need to rebook anyone as the train will go through.
 
Unfortunately I don't think the California Zephyr can connect in Sacramento with the Coast Starlight on the west bound side of my trip. I guess I will just have to try and play the next couple of days by ear.
Unless there is a huge delay encountered by the CZ going west, it always makes the connection with the CS going northbound. The CZ is due into SAC at 3:42 PM. The Starlight doesn't show up in SAC until around midnight, plenty of time for a connection.

Amtrak should definately recognize the problem here and hopefully come up with a plan instead of just ignoring it.
There is a difference between having a contingency plan in place and actually starting to rebook passengers until there actually is a problem. Most people don't like being inconvienced by a longer trip, especially if it turns out not to be necessary.

We see people killed by hurricanes because all to often the last 4 predictions were wrong, so everyone becomes complacent. Then when the big one does hit, no one moves because they figure that the predictions will be wrong again, and people die.

Now things are exactly life and death here with Amtrak, but still, one doesn't start actually rebooking people until it is 100% clear that there is going to be a problem. Remember, I saw a story a few days earlier that claimed a crest of 50 feet, now the latest reports are down to 40 feet. If the river comes in at 35, then there is no need to rebook anyone as the train will go through.
Alan, you are always well reasoned in your responses and this is no exception.

Most of us look at contingency plans when we learn of a potential roadblock. That is my objective. I have been on the short end of enough cancelled trains to start looking for alternatives at the front end.

Amtrak has not yet sold the sleepers I had hoped to transfer to even though we are less than a week out. A transfer does not leave them less than zero but with an opportunity to sell the EB sleeper(s) I transfer from (in the event the floods do not cancel trains). I even gave them another option; to transfer me to an intinerary to LAX that is the same number of travel hours as my Chicago EB trip, to eliminate the cancelation risk. On cancellation I get a 100% refund. The LAX plan would seem to be "at par" for" them, and a lot more attractive than a same far long trip on CZ to CHI. They said that was not possible.

I hope that the floods do not happen and this ends up hypotetical. I am not looking for a blanket declaration by Amtrak of cancellation.
 
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That is not a good position to be in. It seems that Amtrak is willfully ignoring the situation.
Since when did the airlines start allowing people to rebook longer trips, with meals, based upon a weather forcast for next week?
Actually, I can't remember the last time I flew on a domestic airline and got a meal, period.

Oh, I suppose I was overwrought in the sentence you quote, though I would be happy to bet that there will be prolonged rail traffic disruption this spring along the Red River. I just wish Amtrak would indicate that it does have a contingency plan.

One bright spot, though, is that none of the other western trains are as full as the Empire Builder. On March 29, for instance, while the Empire Builder is sold out in sleepers to Portland and Seattle, the California Zephyr and the Southwest Chief both have at least 5 bedrooms free.
 
...Actually, I can't remember the last time I flew on a domestic airline and got a meal, period.
Airline First Class passengers still get meals (and free drinks), and that is the proper comparison for Amtrak Sleeping Car Service passengers. Amtrak coach passengers get the same as airline coach passengers - the option to buy on board or carry on.

Typically what airlines do if conditions suggest future weather problems is issue an advisory for the affected airports. Those advisories are usually issued once the forecast becomes reasonably firm. Passengers with reservations into and out of those airports can change reservations to another day or sometimes to another destination with no penalties or repricing. That certainly could be something Amtrak could offer - allow passengers on routes where forecasts strongly suggest a risk of disruption to rebook the same trip and the same accommodation to a later date with no change of fare.

If you think about it, that plan makes sense for everyone. Passengers can get ahead of the storm and avoid last minute disruptions and aggravation, and the carrier has fewer passengers to have to rebook or reroute at the last minute.
 
...Actually, I can't remember the last time I flew on a domestic airline and got a meal, period.
Airline First Class passengers still get meals (and free drinks), and that is the proper comparison for Amtrak Sleeping Car Service passengers. Amtrak coach passengers get the same as airline coach passengers - the option to buy on board or carry on.

Typically what airlines do if conditions suggest future weather problems is issue an advisory for the affected airports. Those advisories are usually issued once the forecast becomes reasonably firm. Passengers with reservations into and out of those airports can change reservations to another day or sometimes to another destination with no penalties or repricing. That certainly could be something Amtrak could offer - allow passengers on routes where forecasts strongly suggest a risk of disruption to rebook the same trip and the same accommodation to a later date with no change of fare.

If you think about it, that plan makes sense for everyone. Passengers can get ahead of the storm and avoid last minute disruptions and aggravation, and the carrier has fewer passengers to have to rebook or reroute at the last minute.
Excellent analogy. In the southeast, when there is a hurricane warning, airlines typically waive all restrictions and financial costs to change airline reservations. They don't wait until the hurricane hits to relax the rules. Here there is a flood warning. They are waiting until the flood hits to allow at par rerouting.
 
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